Assessments

United States

China

Japan

Malaysia

The ASEAN logo May 15 in front of the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Malaysia will host the first of the two annual summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on May 26.

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trans-Atlantic Trade Talks Intensify, Malaysia Hosts Two Summits

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 22, 2025

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

What role does AI play as both a disruptor and a tool in the risk management space? 

Applied Geopolitics: Leveraging AI To Anticipate and Mitigate Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks 

Snapshots

Australia

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. 

The collapse of the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC) will grant the ruling Labor Party freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies.

Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor

South Korea

Supporters of Kim Moon Soo, the opposition candidate running in South Korea's June 3 presidential election, react during a campaign event in Seoul on May 19, 2025.

Energy

Military & Security

A ruling party victory would portend a continuation of Yoon's pro-business, pro-U.S. policies, while an opposition victory would see Seoul focus more on improving domestic economic equity and increasing engagement with North Korea and China.

South Korea's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Nigeria

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

U.S.-China Relations

Iran

Jordan

Syria

Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan hold the movement's flag during a demonstration in the capital, Amman, on Nov. 28, 2014.

Militant factions of the Muslim Brotherhood will likely go underground in Jordan following the government's ban on the organization, but Iranian influence and persistent socioeconomic grievances will sustain risks of violence.

In Jordan, a Ban Pushes the Muslim Brotherhood Underground

Europe

United Kingdom

A digital illustration of the U.K. and EU flags.

The agreements will institutionalize defense cooperation and ease trade frictions, though lingering political constraints will limit deeper integration in the near term.

The U.K.-EU Deal Signals a Strategic Recalibration of Post-Brexit Trade and Defense Relations

South Africa

Taiwan

Portugal

Poland

Romania

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 21 during an official trip to the United States.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's U.S. Reset, Three European Elections

Latest

Indonesia

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto speaks during an economic event in Jakarta on April 8, 2025.

The president's efforts to consolidate power via welfare populism and security-minded governance could face challenges if economic headwinds strengthen, especially amid looming U.S. tariff threats.

How Subianto Is Making His Mark on Indonesian Politics

India

India's evolving trade strategy aims to boost key exports while protecting sensitive sectors, reflecting a blend of liberalization and long-standing protectionist instincts.

The Geopolitics of Trade: India

The U.S. Capitol building is seen on the evening of May 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

The bill could lead to higher U.S. yields by heightening concerns about large fiscal deficits and increasing debt levels, but it is unlikely to alone severely undermine investor confidence.

The Economic Upshot of U.S. Republicans' Budget Reconciliation Bill

Philippines

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Pakistan

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country&rsquo;s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

France

Ukraine

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

Iraq

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Vietnam

Science & Technology

France and Vietnam signed 14 cooperation agreements during French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit in Hanoi, covering defense, satellite technology, transportation, vaccine production and a $10.25 billion Airbus aircraft deal, Bao Chinh Phu reported on May 26. 

France, Vietnam: Countries Deepen Partnership With Defense and Investment Deals

China and Indonesia signed 12 cooperation agreements during Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Jakarta, including a central bank memorandum of understanding to promote the use of yuan and rupiah in bilateral trade, the Jakarta Globe reported on May 26. 

China, Indonesia: Countries Deepen Trade Ties, Boost Yuan-Rupiah Mechanisms

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Myanmar

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia hosted the inaugural Association of Southeast Asian Nations-Gulf Cooperation Council-China trilateral summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Channel News Asia reported on May 27.

Asia-Pacific, MENA: ASEAN-GCC-China Inaugural Summit Marks Deeper Economic Alignment

Bangladesh

Government employees protesting Bangladesh's Public Service (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025, which allows dismissal without investigation for certain offenses, suspended their protest after officials promised to review the law, The Daily Star reported on May 27.

Bangladesh: Growing Protests Pressure Interim Government

Guyana

Venezuela

Venezuela's ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela retained its broad majority in the National Assembly in an election on May 25, winning nearly 83% of votes, and expanded its control to 23 out of the country's 24 governorships, El Pais reported on May 26.&nbsp;

Venezuela: Government Consolidates Control Following Regional and Legislative Elections

The South African government formally offered to buy 75 million to 100 million cubic meters of liquified natural gas a year from the United States under a 10-year contract in exchange for duty-free access to the U.S. market for automotive parts and duty-free annual quotas of 40,000 vehicles, 385,000 tons of steel and 132,000 tons of aluminum sold in the United States, Reuters reported on May 26.

South Africa: Pretoria Eyes U.S. LNG Imports for Duty-Free Trade Perks

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The U.S.-backed and Israeli-approved Gaza Humanitarian Foundation began distributing aid in the strip, marking the first significant alteration in aid deliveries since Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza in March, AP reported on May 26.

Israel, Gaza: Israeli-Dominated Organization Begins Distributing Aid in Gaza

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar and several other top commanders were killed in southern Gaza on May 13 after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on a high-level meeting among the militant group's members, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 22.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Leader Mohammed Sinwar Killed in Israeli Airstrike&nbsp;

Social Issues

A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing the U.S. Department of Homeland Security from implementing its 22 May decision to revoke the certificate of the Harvard University Student and Exchange Visitor Program.

U.S.: Judge Blocks Trump Administration's Effort to Bar Harvard From Enrolling Foreign Students

In a May 23 post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imported iPhones, calling on Apple to manufacture the devices in the United States.

U.S.: Trump Threatens Apple With 25% Tariff on iPhone Imports

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

How Subianto Is Making His Mark on Indonesian Politics

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

France, Vietnam: Countries Deepen Partnership With Defense and Investment Deals

China, Indonesia: Countries Deepen Trade Ties, Boost Yuan-Rupiah Mechanisms

Asia-Pacific, MENA: ASEAN-GCC-China Inaugural Summit Marks Deeper Economic Alignment

Bangladesh: Growing Protests Pressure Interim Government

Venezuela: Government Consolidates Control Following Regional and Legislative Elections

South Africa: Pretoria Eyes U.S. LNG Imports for Duty-Free Trade Perks

Israel, Gaza: Israeli-Dominated Organization Begins Distributing Aid in Gaza

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Leader Mohammed Sinwar Killed in Israeli Airstrike

U.S.: Judge Blocks Trump Administration's Effort to Bar Harvard From Enrolling Foreign Students

U.S.: Trump Threatens Apple With 25% Tariff on iPhone Imports

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