Abstract
The west coast of India (WCI) is exceedingly vulnerable to global climate change impacts, with growing concerns about the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events in recent years. The present study used bias-corrected multi-model ensemble mean of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) from multiple CMIP6-GCMs under diverse shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for 2024–2050. In the near future—by 2050, the WCI is projected to witness significant pre-monsoon temperature increase of more than 2 °C under all SSPs, with SSP3-7.0 having high prominence, indicating frequent extreme weather events. Under SSP3-7.0, the mean surface air temperature over the WCI could increase by up to 2.7 °C during March through May (MAM) and by 2.1 °C from June to September (JJAS) in the near future. All SSP scenarios show rising temperature trends but at varying rates in different seasons and geographical areas, suggesting localized warming. The SST over the Arabian Sea near the WCI is expected to continue its upward trend from 1951 to 2022 into the projected period of 2024–2050, with an increase of ~ 1.4 °C across all SSPs by 2050. Rising SST can alter wind patterns, affecting both the monsoon flow into the Indian subcontinent and the moisture transport, which could lead to more frequent and severe weather events across the region. Climate change projections point to an enhanced risk of extreme weather events over the WCI, requiring comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted impacts on various sectors.
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Acknowledgements
Sreekumar Haridas would like to express his gratitude to the Government of Kerala for providing research funding under the Chief Minister’s Nava Kerala Post-Doctoral Fellowship (CMNPF; Batch II- Mode II) scheme 2022–2023. SH is sincerely thankful for the support extended by the Kerala State Higher Education Council and Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT) during his tenure as a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research. The authors would like to extend thanks to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), for providing the surface air temperature data for the reference periods. Additionally, the authors acknowledge the NASA Center for Climate Simulations (NCCS) for the downscaled CMIP6 historical and projection data, specifically as NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). The authors are thankful to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing the ERA5 reanalysis data available at Climate Copernicus. The authors would like to thank the Asia-Pacific Data Research Center (APDRC) for providing the Met Office Hadley Centre’s Sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1. Data provided by APDRC, which is a part of the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, is funded in part by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The authors are grateful to all the data providers for providing free access to the observational and reanalysis data without any restrictions, and thank ACARR, CUSAT for all the support.
Funding
This research is supported by the Kerala State Higher Education Council, Government of Kerala under the Chief Minister’s Nava Kerala Post-Doctoral Fellowship (CMNPF; Batch II- Mode II) scheme 2022–2023 in the broad domain of Climate Change & Geological Studies.
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MGM and SH conceptualized the design of the study. SH, FF, AD, RMS, DJ, AAC, AS, STP are involved in the development of computer codes and formal data analysis. SH and MGM performed the manuscript writing. MGM reviewed and supervised the study. All authors potentially contributed to the overall development of the manuscript.
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IMD data are available from https://www.imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Griddata/Rainfall_25_NetCDF.html. NCCS downscaled CMIP6 historical and projection data are available from https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/services/data-collections/land-based-products/nex-gddp-cmip6#:~:text=The%20NEX%2DGDDP%2DCMIP6%20dataset,known%20as%20Shared%20Socioeconomic%20Pathways%20(.The sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1 is accessible at http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/datadoc/hadisst.php.
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Haridas, S., Manoj, M.G., Joseph, D. et al. How is the future climate linked to mean temperature changes over the west coast of India? Part-I: Insights from bias-corrected CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis. Clim Dyn 63, 351 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07838-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07838-x