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A teleconnection study between oceanic oscillations and trends in precipitation extremes in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin

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Abstract

The waters of the Paraíba do Sul River supply around 15 million people, most of whom live in metropolitan regions of the state of Rio de Janeiro. Climate change alters its precipitation regime and can cause an increase in the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. Furthermore, the variability of precipitation can result from the combined effects of the surface conditions of the oceans and the variations in the dynamics of atmospheric systems. This work aims to detect possible changes in the climatic extremes of precipitation in the Paraíba do Sul hydrographic basin and to investigate evidences of correlation of these indices with the oceanic oscillations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results indicate that the northeast sector of the basin present trends of increase in the total annual precipitation, in the number of very humid days and in the occurrence of extreme events, in a space of time up to five days. The southwest sector, on the other hand, show decreasing trends in total annual precipitation, in the number of very humid days, but with an increase trend in the maximum amount of rainfall on five consecutive days. The central sector has characteristics of a transition zone. The correlation analyzes show that oceanic oscillation indices have a non-significant correlation with most annual extreme precipitation indices, except for La Niña (El Niño), that can increase (decrease) the number of consecutive dry days in the region. Besides, for austral autumn, La Niña (El Niño) can decrease (increase) the precipitation in the basin, and in austral winter, hot (cold) phase of AMO can decrease (increase) the precipitation. For austral spring, two teleconnections were found: hot (cold) phase of PDO can increase (decrease) the precipitation in the southwest region of the basin, and during El Niño (La Niña) years, negative (positive) precipitation anomalies tend to occur in the northeast sector of the basin, while positive (negative) anomalies appear in its southwest region. The wavelet spectrum of precipitation anomaly indicates significant values with low power that could be correlated with ENSO, corroborating the results of seasonal correlations.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from South American Precipitation data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/tables/precipitation.html. This data set is for general public distribution.

Code availability

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Acknowledgements

Thanks are due (i) to the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) and to the concessionaire of Energy Light Energia S/A, for the financial assistance granted within the scope of the R&D Light/Aneel project 5161-0016 / 2019, Contract 4500428146 and (ii) to the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES/ Ministry of Education of Brazil), for institutional support (Financing Code 001) to the Graduate Programs of the universities involved in the development of the R&D project.

Funding

This work was supported by National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) and Light Energia S/A (Grant numbers R&D Light/Aneel project 5161–0016 / 2019, Contract 4500428146).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Análise Geoambiental, Universidade Federal Fluminense – UFF, Av. Litorânea, s/n, Campus da Praia Vermelha, Instituto de Geociências, Sala 414, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, CEP: 24210-340

    Mônica Carneiro Alves Senna

  2. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro – UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

    Gutemberg Borges França, Matheus Francisco Pereira, Mauricio Soares da Silva, Ian Cunha D`Amato Viana Dragaud, Vinicius Albuquerque de Almeida, Manoel Valdonel de Almeida, Afonso Augusto Magalhães de Araujo & Karine do Nascimento Cardozo

  3. Universidade Federal de Campina Grande – UFCG, Campina Grande, PB, Brasil

    Enio Pereira de Souza

  4. Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro – UERJ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

    Lucio Silva de Souza & Nilton Oliveira Moraes

  5. Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro – PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

    Maurício Nogueira Frota

  6. LIGHT Energia S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil

    Lude Quieto Viana

Authors
  1. Mônica Carneiro Alves Senna
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  2. Gutemberg Borges França
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  3. Matheus Francisco Pereira
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  4. Mauricio Soares da Silva
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  5. Enio Pereira de Souza
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  6. Ian Cunha D`Amato Viana Dragaud
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  7. Lucio Silva de Souza
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  8. Nilton Oliveira Moraes
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  9. Vinicius Albuquerque de Almeida
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  10. Manoel Valdonel de Almeida
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  11. Maurício Nogueira Frota
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  12. Afonso Augusto Magalhães de Araujo
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  13. Karine do Nascimento Cardozo
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  14. Lude Quieto Viana
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by all authors (see credit taxonomy below). The first draft of the manuscript was written by Mônica Senna and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Credit taxonomy:

Mônica Senna: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Gutemberg França: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing – review & editing

Matheus Pereira: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Visualization

Mauricio Soares da Silva: Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

Enio Souza: Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing – review & editing

Ian Dragaud: Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

Lucio Souza: Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing

Nilton Moraes: Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing

Vinicius Almeida: Investigation, Validation

Manoel Almeida: Investigation, Validation

Mauricio Frota: Funding acquisition, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

Afonso Araujo: Investigation, Validation

Karine Cardozo: Software, Visualization

Lude Viana: Conceptualization, Data curation, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mônica Carneiro Alves Senna.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

This article does not contain any studies with human or animal participants performed by any of the authors.

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All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the article.

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All authors approved.

Competing interests

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

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Senna, M.C.A., França, G.B., Pereira, M.F. et al. A teleconnection study between oceanic oscillations and trends in precipitation extremes in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 1095–1113 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04451-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04451-y

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