Abstract
Climate change significantly impacts avian morphological and reproductive phenologies, particularly influencing the distribution of endemic species with restricted ranges. This study explores the potential distributional shifts of the Levaillant’s Woodpecker, endemic to North Africa, in response to climate change. We employed ecological niche modeling to assess its range dynamics during historical periods (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, and mid-Holocene), the present, and projected future scenarios (2050 and 2070). The analysis incorporated 68 occurrence records of the species and 15 bioclimatic variables. Our findings indicate a current equilibrium between the woodpecker and its climatic environment. Historically, the species experienced a marked range contraction during the Last Interglacial, followed by a significant expansion in the Last Glacial Maximum. The mid-Holocene distribution closely resembled the present range. Future projections, however, suggest a decline in Levaillant’s Woodpecker populations, with a shift towards higher altitude forests as a response to global warming impacts on their existing habitats. This study highlights the critical need for awareness about global warming and its potential threats to biodiversity, particularly forest avifauna.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
References
Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP (2016) Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proc Natl Acad Sci 113(42):11770–11775. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113
Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N et al (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manag 259(4):660–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001
Andersen JC, Havill NP, Mannai Y, Ezzine O, Dhahri S et al (2019) Identification of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) refugia in North Africa and the Italian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum. Ecol Evol 9(24):13931–13941. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5830
Anderson-Teixeira KJ, Miller AD, Mohan JE, Hudiburg TW, Duval BD et al (2013) Altered dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate. Glob Chang Biol 19(7):2001–2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12194
Avise JC (2000) Phylogeography: the history and formation of species. Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Badis M, Hamdi N (2022a) Nest-site characteristics of Levaillant’s Woodpecker Picus vaillantii endemic to North Africa. Ostrich 93(1):70–77. https://doi.org/10.2989/00306525.2022.2048719
Badis M, Hamdi N (2022b) Effects of local climate on nest cavity characteristics of a North African endemic woodpecker. Orn Hung 30(2):33–44. https://doi.org/10.2478/orhu-2022-0018
Badis M, Benchana I, Hamdi N (2023) Nest-site selection by Levaillant’s Woodpecker Picus vaillantii in the Aurès Mountains of northeastern Algeria. Ostrich 94(1):60–64. https://doi.org/10.2989/00306525.2023.2185827
Barve N, Barve V, Jiménez-Valverde A, Lira-Noriega A, Maher SP et al (2011) The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling. Ecol Modell 222(11):1810–1819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.011
Bouahmed A, Vessella F, Schirone B, Krouchi F, Derridj A (2019) Modeling Cedrus atlantica potential distribution in North Africa across time: new putative glacial refugia and future range shifts under climate change. Reg Environ Change 19(6):1667–1682. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01503-w
Brown JL, Bennett JR, French CM (2017) SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses. PeerJ 5:e4095. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4095
Chen IC, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333(6045):1024–1026. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206432
Cobos ME, Peterson AT, Barve N, Osorio-Olvera L (2019) kuenm: an R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent. PeerJ 7:e6281. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6281
Coops NC, Waring RH (2011) A process-based approach to estimate lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) distribution in the Pacific Northwest under climate change. Clim Change 105(1):313–328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9861-2
Covert-Bratland KA, Block WM, Theimer TC (2006) Hairy woodpecker winter ecology in ponderosa pine forests representing different ages since wildfire. J Wildl Manage 70(5):1379–1392. https://doi.org/10.2193/0022-541X(2006)70[1379:HWWEIP]2.0.CO;2
Cowie J (2007) Biological and human aspects. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Damoc I, Sahlean T, Ion R, Ion M, Meșter LE (2014) Nesting preferences for two woodpecker species (Dendrocopos major and Dendrocopos medius) in Comana Forest, Southern Romania. Trav Mus Natl Hist Nat Grigore Antipa 57:35–45. https://doi.org/10.2478/travmu-2014-0004
Dickinson EC, Remsen JV (2013) The Howard and Moore complete checklist of the birds of the world, vol. 1, non-passerines. Aves Press, Eastbourne
Dormann CF, Elith J, Bacher S, Buchmann C, Carl G et al (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 36(1):27–46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x
Drapeau P, Nappi A, Imbeau L, Saint-Germain M (2009) Standing deadwood for keystone bird species in the eastern boreal forest: managing for snag dynamics. For Chron 85(2):227–234. https://doi.org/10.5558/tfc85227-2
Dudley JG, Saab VA, Hollenbeck JP (2012) Foraging-habitat selection of Black-backed Woodpeckers in forest burns of southwestern Idaho. Condor 114(2):348–357. https://doi.org/10.1525/cond.2012.110020
El Khamlichi R, Sarrión JA (2015) Nouveau cas de reproduction du Pic de Levaillant (Picus vaillantii) au Jbel Moussa, Tangérois. Go-South Bull 12:55–56
Escobar LE, Medina-Vogel G, Peterson AT (2014) Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference. Geospat Health 9(1):221–229. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2014.19
Escobar LE, Qiao H, Cabello J, Peterson AT (2018) Ecological niche modeling re-examined: a case study with the Darwin’s fox. Ecol Evol 8(10):4757–4770. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4014
Fayt P, Machmer MM, Steeger C (2005) Regulation of spruce bark beetles by woodpeckers—a literature review. For Ecol Manag 206(1–3):1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2004.10.054
Felis T, Lohmann G, Kuhnert H, Lorenz SJ, Scholz D et al (2004) Increased seasonality in Middle East temperatures during the last interglacial period. Nature 429(6988):164–168. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02546
FitzGerald AM (2017) Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray-cheeked Thrush (C. minimus). Ecol Evol 7(14):5285–5295. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3080
Fogg A, Roberts L, Burnett R (2014) Occurrence patterns of Black-backed Woodpeckers in green forest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, USA. Avian Conserv Ecol 9(2):3. https://doi.org/10.5751/ACE-00671-090203
Freeman BG, Scholer MN, Ruiz-Gutierrez V, Fitzpatrick JW (2018) Climate change causes upslope shifts and mountaintop extirpations in a tropical bird community. Proc Natl Acad Sci 115(47):11982–11987. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804224115
GBIF (2021) GBIF occurrence download. Available from: https://www.gbif.org [11 April 2021]. https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.twmjem
Gregory RD, Willis SG, Jiguet F, Voříšek P, Klvaňová A et al (2009) An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE 4(3):e4678. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004678
Guillemain M, Pöysä H, Fox AD, Arzel C, Dessborn L et al (2013) Effects of climate change on European ducks: what do we know and what do we need to know? Wildlife Biol 19(4):404–419. https://doi.org/10.2981/12-118
Gür H, Perktaş U, Gür MK (2018) Do climate-driven altitudinal range shifts explain the intraspecific diversification of a narrow ranging montane mammal, Taurus ground squirrels? Mammal Res 63(2):197–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-017-0347-8
Henine-Maouche A (2016) Ecologie et biologie du Pic de Levaillant Picus vaillantii (Malherbe. 1847) (Aves. Picidae) dans la région des Babors occidentales. Mémoire de Magister, Université de Béjaïa
Hewitt GM (2004) Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the quaternary. Phil Trans R Soc Lond B 359(1442):183–195. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1388
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high-resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25(15):1965–1978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276
Hurvich CM, Tsai CL (1989) Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika 76(2):297–307. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/76.2.297
Isenmann P, Moali A (2000) Birds of Algeria. SEOF, Paris
Isenmann P, Gaultier T, Azafzaf H, el Hili A, Smart M et al (2005) Oiseaux de Tunisie. SEOF, Paris
Jackson JA, Jackson BJS (2004) Ecological relationships between fungi and woodpecker cavity sites. Condor 106(1):37–49. https://doi.org/10.1093/condor/106.1.37
Jetz W, Wilcove DS, Dobson AP (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol 5(6):e157. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157
Keller V, Herrando S, Voříšek P, Franch M, Kipson M et al (2020) European Breeding Bird Atlas 2: distribution, abundance and change. European Bird Census Council & Lynx Edicions, Barcelona
Lany NK, Ayres MP, Stange EE, Sillett TS, Rodenhouse NL et al (2016) Breeding timed to maximize reproductive success for a migratory songbird: the importance of phenological asynchrony. Oikos 125(5):656–666. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.02412
Lehikoinen A, Lindén A, Karlsson M, Andersson A, Crewe TL et al (2019) Phenology of the avian spring migratory passage in Europe and North America: asymmetric advancement in time and increase in duration. Ecol Indic 101:985–991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.01.083
Lomolino MV, Riddle BR, Whittaker RJ (2017) Biogeography, 5th edn. Oxford Univ Press, Sunderland
Martin K, Aitken KEH, Wiebe KL (2004) Nest sites and nest webs for cavity-nesting communities in interior British Columbia, Canada: nest characteristics and niche partitioning. Condor 106(1):5–19. https://doi.org/10.1093/condor/106.1.5
McDowell NG, Allen CD (2015) Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming. Nat Clim Chang 5(7):669–672. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2641
Mikusiński G, Gromadzki M, Chylarecki P (2001) Woodpeckers as indicators of forest bird diversity. Conserv Biol 15(1):208–217. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2001.99236.x
Naimi B (2017) Package “usdm”. Uncertainty analysis for species distribution models. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/usdm/usdm.pdf. Accessed 10 Oct 2020
Nogués-Bravo D (2009) Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 18(5):521–531. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00476.x
Otto-Bliesner BL, Marshall SJ, Overpeck JT, Miller GH, Hu A et al (2006) Simulating arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation. Science 311(5768):1751–1753. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1120808
Perktaş U, Elverici C (2020) Climate-driven range shifts of the sharp-tailed Grouse Tympanuchus phasianellus. Acta Ornithol 54(2):213–222. https://doi.org/10.3161/00016454AO2019.54.2.007
Perktaş U, Barrowclough GF, Groth JG (2011) Phylogeography and species limits in the green woodpecker complex (Aves: Picidae): multiple Pleistocene refugia and range expansion across Europe and the Near East. Biol J Linn Soc 104(3):710–723. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8312.2011.01750.x
Perktaş U, Gür H, Sağlam IK, Quintero E (2015) Climate-driven range shifts and demographic events over the history of Kruper’s nuthatch Sitta krueperi. Bird Study 62(1):14–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/00063657.2014.977220
Perktaş U, Peterson AT, Dyer D (2017) Integrating morphology, phylogeography, and ecological niche modeling to explore population differentiation in North African Common Chaffinches. J Ornithol 158(1):1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-016-1361-3
Perktaş U, De Silva TN, Quintero E, Tavşanoğlu Ç (2019) Adding ecology into phylogeography: ecological niche models and phylogeography in tandem reveals the demographic history of the subalpine warbler complex. Bird Study 66(2):234–242. https://doi.org/10.1080/00063657.2019.1654977
Peterson AT (2003) Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences. Glob Change Biol 9(5):647–655. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00616.x
Peterson AT, Papeş M, Soberón J (2008) Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling. Ecol Modell 213(1):63–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.008
Peterson AT, Soberón J, Pearson RG, Anderson RP, Martínez-Meyer E et al (2011) Ecological niches and geographic distributions (MPB-49), vol 56. Princeton University Press, Princeton. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400840670
Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31(2):161–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x
Pons J, Olioso G, Cruaud C, Fuchs J (2011) Phylogeography of the Eurasian green woodpecker (Picus viridis). J Biogeogr 38(2):311–325. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02401.x
Rachmayani R, Prange M, Schulz M (2015) North African vegetation–precipitation feedback in early and mid-Holocene climate simulations with CCSM3-DGVM. Clim Past 11(2):175–185. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-175-2015
Ray N, Adams J (2001) A GIS-based vegetation map of the world at the last glacial maximum (25,000–15,000 BP). Internet Archaeol 11(3):1–44. https://doi.org/10.11141/ia.11.2
Saab VA, Russell RE, Dudley JG (2009) Nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in relation to postfire salvage logging. For Ecol Manag 257(1):151–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.08.028
Sekercioglu CH, Schneider SH, Fay JP, Loarie SR (2008) Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conserv Biol 22(1):140–150. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00852.x
Sesink Clee PR, Abwe EE, Ambahe RD, Anthony NM, Fotso R et al (2015) Chimpanzee population structure in Cameroon and Nigeria is associated with habitat variation that may be lost under climate change. BMC Evol Biol 15(1):1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-014-0275-z
Short LL, Sandström GF (1982) Woodpeckers of the world. Greenville, Delaware Museum of Natural History
Showalter CR, Whitmore RC (2002) The effect of gypsy moth defoliation on cavity-nesting bird communities. For Sci 48:273–282
Sillero N, Barbosa AM (2021) Common mistakes in ecological niche models. Int Geogr Inf Sci 35(2):213–226. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.1798968
Snow DW, Perrins CM, Gillmor R (1998) The birds of the Western Palearctic, non-passerines, vol Concise. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Srivastava AK, Gaiser T, Paeth H, Ewert F (2012) The impact of climate change on Yam (Dioscorea alata) yield in the savanna zone of West Africa. Agric Ecosyst Environ 153:57–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.03.004
Studds CE, McFarland KP, Aubry Y, Rimmer CC, Hobson KA et al (2012) Stable-hydrogen isotope measures of natal dispersal reflect observed population declines in a threatened migratory songbird. Divers Distrib 18(9):919–930. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00931.x
Thorup K, Tøttrup AP, Rahbek C (2007) Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds. Oecologia 151(4):697–703. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-006-0608-8
Ülker ED, Tavşanoğlu Ç, Perktaş U (2018) Ecological niche modelling of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) supports the ‘expansion–contraction’ model of Pleistocene biogeography. Biol J Linn Soc 123(2):338–347. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blx154
Virkkala R (2006) Why study woodpeckers? The significance of woodpeckers in forest ecosystems. Ann Zool Fenn 43:82–85
Walsh ES, Vierling KT, Strand E, Bartowitz K, Hudiburg TW (2019) Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: current trends and future modeling needs. Ecol Evol 9(4):2305–2319. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4876
Waltari E, Hijmans RJ, Peterson AT, Nyári AS, Perkins SL et al (2007) Locating Pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions. PLoS ONE 2(7):e563. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000563
Weed AS, Ayres MP, Hicke JA (2013) Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests. Ecol Monogr 83(4):441–470. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0160.1
Wilcox PS, Honiat C, Trüssel M, Edwards RL, Spötl C (2020) Exceptional warmth and climate instability occurred in the European Alps during the Last Interglacial period. Commun Earth Environ 1:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00063-w
Wormworth J, S̜ekercioğlu CH (2011) Winged sentinels: birds and climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139150026
Acknowledgements
We extend our sincere gratitude to Utku Perktaş for his invaluable assistance at the onset of this study. Our thanks also go to two anonymous reviewers whose insightful comments and suggestions greatly enhanced the quality of this work. Special thanks to Wolfgang Cramer for his constructive critique and guidance throughout this research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Communicated by Wolfgang Cramer.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Badis, M., Elverici, C. & Hamdi, N. Climate-driven range shifts of Levaillant’s Woodpecker Picus vaillantii in the Western Mediterranean. Reg Environ Change 24, 29 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02185-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Version of record:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02185-9