Abstract
Much of the search for earthquake prediction schemes has centred on the expectation that rocks in the impending source area will show dilatancy: the opening of cracks at high stress-levels. Recent developments in the theory of seismic wave propagation in cracked media1 demonstrate that shear-wave splitting will occur in seismic-wave propagation through cracked structures, when the cracks have any overall alignment. This splitting causes polarization anomalies in the seismograms, and it has been suggested1 that dilatancy, induced by the build-up of stress before earthquakes, might be recognized and monitored by analysis of these anomalies. We present here new observations which support this hypothesis.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
199,00 € per year
only 3,90 € per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on SpringerLink
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Crampin, S. Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 53, 467–496 (1978).
Bamford, D. & Nunn, K. R. Geophys. Prosp. 27, 322–338 (1979).
Crampin, S., McGonigle, R. & Bamford, D. Geophysics 45, 345–360 (1980).
Brace, W. F. Flow and Fracture in Rocks (eds Heard, H. C, Borg, I. Y., Carter, N. L. & Raleigh, C. B.) (Geophys. Monogr., 16, AGU, Washington, 1972).
Simmons, G. & Richter, D. Physics and Chemistry of Minerals and Rocks, 105–137 (ed. Strens, R. G. J.) (Wiley, New York, 1976).
Nur, A. & Simmons, G. J. geophys. Res. 74, 6667–6674 (1969).
Dobrovolsky, I. P., Zubkov, S. I. & Miachkin, V. I. Pure appl. Geophys. 117, 1025–1044 (1979).
Brace, W. F., Paulding, B. W. & Scholz, C. J. geophys. Res. 71, 3939–3953 (1966).
Gupta, I. N. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 63, 1157–1161 (1973).
Hadley, K. J. geophys. Res. 80, 4845–4850 (1975).
Gold, T. J. petrol. Geol. 11, 3–19 (1979).
Crampin, S. Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 49, 9–27 (1977).
Keith, C. M. & Crampin, S. Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 49, 181–243 (1977).
Myachkin, V. I., Brace, W. F., Sobolev, G. A. & Dieterich, J. H. Pure appl. Geophys. 113, 169–181 (1975).
Yegorkina, G. V., Rakitov, V. A., Garetovskaya, I. V. & Yegorova, L. M. Izv. Akad. Nauk. SSSR, Fiz. Zemli, No. 8, 43–55 (in Russian), 554–562 (English edition) (1977).
Volvovsky, I. S., Egorkina, G. V. & Popov, E. A. Pap. Workshop on Modern Methods of Registration and Interpretation of Seismic Observations, Yalta (1979).
Gupta, I. N. Science 182, 1129–1132 (1973); Bull. seis. Soc. Am., 64, 1997–2001 (1974); 65, 425–437 (1975).
Ryall, A. & Savage, W. U. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 64, 1943–1951 (1974).
Wang, C.-Y. Nature 251, 405–406 (1974).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Crampin, S., Evans, R., Üçer, B. et al. Observations of dilatancy-induced polarization anomalies and earthquake prediction. Nature 286, 874–877 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1038/286874a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/286874a0
This article is cited by
-
Perfect circular polarization of elastic waves in solid media
Nature Communications (2024)
-
Simultaneous electric, magnetic and ULF anomalies associated with moderate earthquakes in Kumaun Himalaya
Natural Hazards (2023)
-
On the origin of upper crustal shear-wave anisotropy at Samos Island, Greece
Acta Geophysica (2021)
-
Heterogeneous mantle anisotropy and fluid upwelling: implication for generation of the 1891 Nobi earthquake
Earth, Planets and Space (2016)
-
Shear-wave splitting analysis of the upper mantle at the Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone with the data of the Joint Seismic Observations at NKTZ
Earth, Planets and Space (2009)
