Recent and Possible Future Variations in the North American Monsoon

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Chris; Barlow, Mathew; Shukla, Shraddhanand

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_7

Part of the book series: Springer Climate ((SPCL))

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Abstract

The dynamics and recent and possible future changes of the June–September rainfall associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) are reviewed in this chapter. Our analysis as well as previous analyses of the trend in June–September precipitation from 1948 until 2010 indicate significant precipitation increases over New Mexico and the core NAM region, and significant precipitation decreases over southwest Mexico. The trends in June–September precipitation have been forced by anomalous cyclonic circulation centered at 15°N latitude over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The anomalous cyclonic circulation is responsible for changes in the flux of moisture and the divergence of moisture flux within the core NAM region. Future climate projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), support the observed analyses of a later shift in the monsoon season in the presence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario predict significant NAM-related rainfall decreases during June and July and predict significant NAM-related rainfall increases during September and October.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) cooperative agreement #G09AC000001, the USGS Land Change Science Program, and the UCAR Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) Fellowship Program.

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Authors and Affiliations

Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Andrew Hoell, Chris Funk & Shraddhanand Shukla
Earth Resources Observation Systems Data Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, USA
Chris Funk
Department of Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA, USA
Mathew Barlow
University Corporation of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Shraddhanand Shukla

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Andrew Hoell
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Chris Funk
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Mathew Barlow
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Shraddhanand Shukla
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Correspondence to Andrew Hoell .

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Editors and Affiliations

Dept. of Geography and Earth Res. Inst., University of California, SANTA BARBARA, California, USA
Leila Maria Véspoli de Carvalho
Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Charles Jones

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Hoell, A., Funk, C., Barlow, M., Shukla, S. (2016). Recent and Possible Future Variations in the North American Monsoon. In: de Carvalho, L., Jones, C. (eds) The Monsoons and Climate Change. Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_7

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_7
Published: 21 December 2015
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-21649-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-21650-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)

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