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Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution

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Abstract

Atlantic hurricanes and their sensitivity to anthropogenic warming are investigated using very high (0.5°×0.5° over the Atlantic domain) resolution global simulations. The ARPEGE-Climat variable resolution grid demonstrates its usefulness in regional climate studies since resolution can be multiplied by a factor of 2.5 over the domain of interest compared to a uniform grid, for a similar computer cost. The question of hurricane characteristics dependence on anthropogenic warming is tackled trough the implementation of a tracking method. Changes in the total number, as well as locations, of hurricanes appear to depend more on sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns anomaly than Atlantic mean intensity, essentially through the change in large scale vertical wind shear. A uniform SST anomaly forcing produces increased and eastward shifted systems while a spatially contrasted anomaly leads to a decrease. Comparison between cyclogenesis density calculated from tracking or large scale combined variables (as a modified Gray parameter) brings some confidence in the use of the latter to investigate low resolution simulations. Mean hurricane dynamical characteristics are weakly changed by the warming but precipitation core and latent heat flux are enhanced in all scenarios.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Frank Ayrault and Alain Joly for their initial tracking software, as well as Bruno Joly for his help in installing and using it. Discussion with Antoine Lasserre-Bigorry at the beginning of the study was very helpful by its deep knowledge of tropical cyclone systems. The authors are also grateful to Virginie Lorant for his meticulous reading of the manuscript. We are also grateful to the three reviewers of the manuscript for their useful comments and suggestions. This work has been supported by a grant from the Department of Ecology and Sustainable Development through the French program “Gestion et Impact du Changement Climatique” (GICC). The work was more specifically undertaken in the frame of the project IMFREX. The tracks were plotted with an adaptation of a GraDs script found on the list server ([email protected]).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Météo-France/CNRM, 42 Avenue Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex 01, France

    Fabrice Chauvin, Jean-François Royer & Michel Déqué

  2. CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Météo-France, 42, avenue G. Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex 01, France

    Fabrice Chauvin

Authors
  1. Fabrice Chauvin
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  2. Jean-François Royer
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  3. Michel Déqué
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Correspondence to Fabrice Chauvin.

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Chauvin, F., Royer, JF. & Déqué, M. Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution. Clim Dyn 27, 377–399 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0135-7

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