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Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021–2050)

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Abstract

An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 based on the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1–4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout 2021–2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day) changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers whose valuable comments and suggestions greatly improved the quality of this paper. We are also grateful to Dr. Steven Cocke for extensive review of our manuscript. This research was supported by a grant (code#1-9-2) from Sustainable Water Resources Research Center of 21st Century Frontier Research Program. The second author was supported by the Research on ARGO Data Assimilation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Research Lab, Meteorological Research Institute, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea

    Eun-Soon Im & Won-Tae Kwon

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Pusan, Korea

    Joong-Bae Ahn

  3. Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy

    Filippo Giorgi

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  1. Eun-Soon Im
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  2. Joong-Bae Ahn
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  3. Won-Tae Kwon
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  4. Filippo Giorgi
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Correspondence to Eun-Soon Im.

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Im, ES., Ahn, JB., Kwon, WT. et al. Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021–2050). Clim Dyn 30, 239–254 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0282-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0282-5

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