Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over South Korea in the late twenty-first century (2081–2100) projected by the RegCM4.0 based on four RCP scenarios

Abstract

Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types over South Korea during summer in the late twenty-first century (2081–2100) were projected under four RCP scenarios using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.0) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. Two boundary conditions, ERA-Interim and HadGEM2-AO, were used to drive the RegCM4.0 (jointly named RG4_ERA and RG4_HG2, respectively). In general, the RegCM4.0 reproduces the spatial distribution of summer precipitation over Northeast Asia for the current climate (1989–2008) reasonably well. The RG4_HG2 shows larger dry biases over South Korea, when compared with observations, than does the RG4_ERA. These strong dry biases result from the underestimation of convective precipitation (CPR) and are particularly noticeable in late afternoons during July and August. It is related to the performance of HadGEM2-AO which simulated southwesterly winds weakly in that time. However, interestingly, the RG4_HG2 simulates similar increases in the contribution of CPR to total precipitation after mid-July, resulting in comparable performance in the reproduction of heavy precipitation. In the late twenty-first century, a significant increase (decrease) in CPR (NCPR) is generally projected over South Korea, and particularly under the RCP8.5. During June, the total precipitation is affected primarily by changes in NCPR under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. After mid-July, increasing total precipitation is primarily caused by the distinct increases in CPR in the late afternoons; this pattern is particularly noticeable under RCP8.5, which is associated with more destabilized atmospheric conditions during July and August. Light and heavy precipitation are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under RCP8.5.