Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Influence of the ocean surface temperature and sea ice concentration on regional climate changes in Eurasia in recent decades

  • Published:
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Numerical experiments with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model have been performed in order to simulate the influence of changes in the ocean surface temperature (OST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) on climate characteristics in regions of Eurasia. The sensitivity of winter and summer climates to OST and SIC variations in 1998–2006 has been investigated and compared to those in 1968–1976. These two intervals correspond to the maximum and minimum of the Atlantic Long-Period Oscillation (ALO) index. Apart from the experiments on changes in the OST and SIC global fields, the experiments on OST anomalies only in the North Atlantic and SIC anomalies in the Arctic for the specified periods have been analyzed. It is established that temperature variations in Western Europe are explained by OST and SIC variations fairly well, whereas the warmings in Eastern Europe and Western Siberia, according to model experiments, are substantially (by a factor of 2–3) smaller than according to observational data. Winter changes in the temperature regime in continental regions are controlled mainly by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The model, on the whole, reproduces the empirical structure of changes in the winter field of surface pressure, in particular, the pressure decrease in the Caspian region; however, it substantially (approximately by three times) underestimates the range of changes. Summer temperature variations in the model are characterized by a higher statistical significance than winter ones. The analysis of the sensitivity of the climate in Western Europe to SIC variations alone in the Arctic is an important result of the experiments performed. It is established that the SIC decrease and a strong warming over the Barents Sea in the winter period leads to a cooling over vast regions of the northern part of Eurasia and increases the probability of anomalously cold January months by two times and more (for regions in Western Siberia). This effect is caused by the formation of the increased-pressure region with a center over the southern boundary of the Barents Sea during the SIC decrease and an anomalous advection of cold air masses from the northeast. This result indicates that, to estimate the ALO actions (as well as other long-scale climatic variability modes) on the climate of Eurasia, it is basically important to take into account (or correctly reproduce) Arctic sea ice changes in experiments with climatic models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+
from €39.99 /Month
  • Starting from 10 chapters or articles per month
  • Access and download chapters and articles from more than 300k books and 2,500 journals
  • Cancel anytime
View plans

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Germany)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles, books and news in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

References

  1. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Eds. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  2. P. Brohan, J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, et al., “Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Data Set from 1850,” J. Geophys. Res. 111(D12) (2006). doi: 10.1029/2005jd006548

  3. R. Philipona, K. Behrens, and C. Ruckstuhl, “How Declining Aerosols and Rising Greenhouse Gases Forced Rapid Warming in Europe Since the 1980s,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (2009). doi: 10.1029/2008gl036350

  4. I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Semenov, V. Ch. Khon, et al., “Connection between Eurasian and North Atlantic Climate Anomalies and Natural Variations in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Based on Long-Term Model Calculations,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 419A(3), 502–505 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Semenov, and V. Ch. Khon, “Simulation of the Oceanic Temperature Impact on the European Weather Conditions,” in Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, No. 38, pp. 7.19–1.20 (2008).

  6. S. I. Kuzmina, L. Bengtsson, O. M. Johannessen, et al., “The North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenhouse-Gas Forcing,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005). doi: 10.1029/2004gl021064

  7. C. S. Bretherton, D. S. Battisti, “An Interpretation of the Results from Atmospheric General Circulation Models Forced by the Time History of the Observed Sea Surface Temperature Distribution,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 767–770 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. V. A. Semenov, M. Latif, J. H. Jungclaus, et al., “Is the Observed NAO Variability During the Instrumental Record Unusual?,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (2008). doi: 10.1029/208gl03273

  9. M. P. Hoerling, J. W. Hurrell, T. Xu, et al., “Twentieth Century North Atlantic Climate Change. Part II: Understanding the Effect of Indian Ocean Warming,” Clim. Dyn. 23, 391–405 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. J. W. Hurrell, M. P. Hoerling, A. S. Phillips, et al., “Twentieth Century North Atlantic Climate Change. Part I: Assessing Determinism,” Clim. Dyn. 23, 371–389 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. T. L. Delworth and M. E. Mann, “Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere,” Clim. Dyn. 16, 661–676 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. A. B. Polonskii, The Role of the Ocean in Climate Changes (Naukova Dumka, Kiev, 2008) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  13. J. R. Knight, R. J. Allan, C. K. Folland, et al., “A Signature of Persistent Natural Thermohaline Circulation Cycles in Observed Climate,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005). doi: 10.1029/2005gl024233

  14. M. E. Schlesinger and N. Ramankutty, “An Oscillation in the Global Climate System of Period 65–70 Years,” Nature 367, 723–726 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. M. Latif, E. Roeckner, M. Botzet, et al., “Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature,” J. Clim. 17, 1605–1614 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. W. G. Broeker, “The Great Ocean Conveyor,” Oceanography, No. 4, pp. 79–85 (1991).

  17. S. S. Lappo, in Investigation of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Processes (Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, 1984), pp. 125–129 [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  18. J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, M. Latif, et al., “Arctic-North Atlantic Interactions and Multidecadal Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation,” J. Clim. 18, 4013–4031 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. V. A. Semenov, “Structure of Temperature Variability in the High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 43(6), 687–695 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. V. A. Semenov, “Influence of Oceanic Inflow to the Barents Sea on Climate Variability in the Arctic Region,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 418(1), 91–94 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. S. K. Gulev, O. Zolina, and S. Grigoriev, “Extratropical Cyclone Variability in the Northern Hemisphere Winter from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data,” Clim. Dyn. 17, 795–809 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. S. Kravtsov and C. Spannagle, “Multidecadal Climate Variability in Observed and Modeled Surface Temperatures,” J. Clim. 21, 1104–1121 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. M. F. Ting, Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, et al., “Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic,” J. Clim. 22, 1469–1481 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. V. A. Semenov, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, et al., “The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature,” J. Clim. 23, 5668–5677 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. R. Zhang, T. L. Delworth, and I. M. Held, “Can the Atlantic Ocean Drive the Observed Multidecadal Variability in Northern Hemisphere Mean Temperature?,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 (2007). doi: 10.1029/2006gl028683

  26. J. R. Knight, C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife, “Climate Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (2006). doi: 10.1029/2006gl026242

  27. R. T. Sutton and D. L. R. Hodson, “Atlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate,” Science 309, 115–118 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. R. T. Sutton and D. L. R. Hodson, “Climate Response to Basin-Scale Warming and Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean,” J. Clim. 20, 891–907 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. N. A. Dianskii, A. V. Glazunov, and V. P. Dymnikov, “Modeling the Atmospheric Circulation Response to SST Anomalies in the Wintertime North Atlantic,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 35(1), 110–122 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  30. A. V. Glazunov, N. A. Dianskii, and V. P. Dymnikov, “Localized and Global Responses of the Atmospheric Circulation to Midlatitude Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 37(5), 537–555 (2001).

    Google Scholar 

  31. E. Kalnay, M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, et al., “The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. E. Roeckner, G. Báuml, L. Bonaventura, et al., “The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. Part I: Model Description,” Max Planck Inst. Meteorol. Hamburg Report (2003).

  33. N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, et al., “Global Analyses of Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Night Marine Air Temperature Since the Late Nineteenth Century,” J. Geophys. Res. 108(D14) (2003). doi: 10.1029/2002jd002670

  34. M. P. Hoerling, J. W. Hurrell, and T. Y. Xu, “Tropical Origins for Recent North Atlantic Climate Change,” Science 292, 90–92 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. J. Stroeve, M. M. Holland, W. Meier, et al., “Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster Than Forecast,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 34(9) (2007). doi: 10.1029/2007gl029703

  36. J. M. Gregory, K. W. Dixon, R. J. Stouffer, et al., “A Model Intercomparison of Changes in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation in Response To Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 32(12) (2005). doi: 10.1029/2005gl023209

  37. I. V. Polyakov, V. A. Alexeev, U. S. Bhatt, et al., “North Atlantic Warming: Patterns of Long-Term Trend and Multidecadal Variability,” Clim. Dyn. 34(2–3), 439–457 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. L. Bengtsson, V. A. Semenov, and O. M. Johannessen, “The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic-A Possible Mechanism,” J. Clim. 17, 4045–4057 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. V. A. Semenov and L. Bengtsson, “Modes of the Wintertime Arctic Temperature Variability,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (2003). doi: 10.1029/2003gl017112

  40. M. A. Alexander, U. S. Bhatt, J. E. Walsh, et al., “The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in an AGCM during Winter,” J. Clim. 17, 890–905 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. C. Deser, G. Magnusdottir, R. Saravanan, et al., “The Effects of North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies on the Winter Circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and Indirect Components of the Response,” J. Clim. 17, 877–889 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. G. Magnusdottir, C. Deser, and R. Saravanan, “The Effects of North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies on the Winter Circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main Features and Storm Track Characteristics of the Response,” J. Clim. 17, 857–876 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. V. Petoukhov and V. A. Semenov, “A Link Between Reduced Barents-Kara Sea Ice and Cold Winter Extremes over Northern Continents,” J. Geophys. Res. 115 (2010). doi: 10.1029/2009jd013568

  44. V. Ya. Galin and E. M. Volodin, “Modeling the Atmsopheric Response to Arctic Ice Melting,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 1, 14–21 (2002).

  45. V. M. Kattsov, V. P. Meleshko, A. P. Sokolov, et al., “Sea Ice Impact on the Temperature Regime and Circulation of the Northern Hemispheric Atmosphere in Winter,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 12, 5–24 (1992).

  46. V. M. Kattsov, V. P. Meleshko, G. V. Alekseev, et al., “Impact of Oceanic Ice Cover Concentration on the Atmospheric Variability at High Altitudes,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 4, 43–54 (1997).

  47. O. Zolina, A. Kapala, C. Simmer, et al., “Analysis of Extreme Precipitation over Europe from Different Reanalyses: a Comparative Assessment,” Global Planet. Change 44, 129–161 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. D. B. Stephenson, V. Pavan, M. Collins, et al., “North Atlantic Oscillation Response to Transient Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Impact on European Winter Climate: A CMIP2 Multi-Model Assessment,” Clim. Dyn. 27, 401–420 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. V. A. Semenov and L. Bengtsson, “Secular Trends in Daily Precipitation Characteristics: Greenhouse Gas Simulation with a Coupled AOGCM,” Clim. Dyn. 19, 123–140 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. D. M. H. Sexton, D. P. Rowell, C. K. Folland, et al., “Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using an Atmospheric GCM,” Clim. Dyn. 17, 669–685 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. M. Latif, C. Boning, J. Willebrand, et al., “Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing?,” J. Clim. 19, 4631–4637 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. T. Jung, S. K. Gulev, I. Rudeva, et al., “Sensitivity of Extratropical Cyclone Characteristics to Horizontal Resolution in the ECMWF Model,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 1839–1857 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. D. W. J. Thompson and J. M. Wallace, “Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part I: Month-to-Month Variability,” J. Clim. 13, 1000–1016 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. G. F. Herman and W. T. Johnson, “The Sensitivity of the General Circulation to Arctic Sea Ice Boundaries: A Numerical Experiment,” Mon. Weather Rev. 106, 1649–1663 (1978).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. A. R. Lupo, R. J. Oglesby, and I. I. Mokhov, “Climatological Features of Blocking Anticyclones: A Study of Northern Hemisphere CCM1 Model Blocking Events in Present-Day and Double CO2 Concentration Atmospheres,” Clim. Dyn. 13, 181–195 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. I. I. Mokhov, J.-L. Dufresne, H. Le Treut, et al., “Changes in Drought and Bioproductivity Regimes in Land Ecosystems in Regions of Northern Eurasia Based on Calculations Using a Global Climatic Model with Carbon Cycle,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 405A(9), 1414–1418 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  57. I. I. Mokhov, “Action as an Integral Characteristic of Climatic Structures: Estimates for Atmospheric Blockings,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 409A(6), 925–928 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. C. Schar, P. L. Vidale, D. Luthi, et al., “The Role of Increasing Temperature Variability in European Summer Heatwaves,” Nature 427, 332–336 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. I. I. Mokhov and V. K. Petukhov, “Blockings and the Tendencies toward Their Variation,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 357A(9), 1386–1388 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  60. Yu. A. Bochkov, “Back Observation of Water Temperature in the Layer 0–200 m on the Kola Meridian Section in the Barents Sea (1900–1981),” in Ecology and Groundling Trade in the North-European Basin. Collection of Scientific Works, Knipovich Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography Murmansk, 1982), pp. 113–122 [in Russian].

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    V. A. Semenov & I. I. Mokhov

  2. Moscow State University, Moscow, 119991, Russia

    V. A. Semenov

  3. Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR), Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany

    V. A. Semenov & M. Latif

Authors
  1. V. A. Semenov
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. I. I. Mokhov
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. M. Latif
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. A. Semenov.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © V.A. Semenov, I.I. Mokhov, M. Latif, 2012, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2012, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 403–421.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Semenov, V.A., Mokhov, I.I. & Latif, M. Influence of the ocean surface temperature and sea ice concentration on regional climate changes in Eurasia in recent decades. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 48, 355–372 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433812040135

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433812040135

Keywords