ESD Earth System Dynamics ESD Earth Syst. Dynam. 2190-4987 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/esd-4-287-2013 Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models Menon A. 1 2 Levermann A. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704 1 2 Schewe J. 1 Lehmann J. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3261-6750 1 2 Frieler K. 1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany 28 08 2013 4 2 287 300 Copyright: © 2013 A. Menon et al. 2013 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/4/287/2013/esd-4-287-2013.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/4/287/2013/esd-4-287-2013.pdf

The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.
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