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. 2012 Nov 27;109(48):19601-5.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1209542109. Epub 2012 Oct 15.

Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923

Aslak Grinsted  1 , John C Moore, Svetlana Jevrejeva
Affiliations

Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923

Aslak Grinsted et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we construct an independent record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity on the basis of storm surge statistics from tide gauges. We demonstrate that the major events in our surge index record can be attributed to landfalling tropical cyclones; these events also correspond with the most economically damaging Atlantic cyclones. We find that warm years in general were more active in all cyclone size ranges than cold years. The largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923. In particular, we estimate that Katrina-magnitude events have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years (P < 0.02).

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
(A) Average surge index over the cyclone season. (B) Observed frequency of surge events with surge index greater than 10 units/y (surge index > 10 units) and linear trend (black). (C) Accumulated cyclone energy for US landfalling storms. (D) Annual average global mean surface temperature anomaly from GISTEMP (23), shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Thick lines in A, B, and C are 5-y moving averages. Inset in A shows locations of the six tide gauges used in the construction of the surge index.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Comparison of the surge index (blue) with ACE (light red) and US-ACE (red) for the 2005 hurricane season.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Return period plot of surge index distribution for cold (blue) and warm (red) years separately (Fig. 1D). The crosses and shaded bands show return periods and confidence intervals estimated from the empirical cdf (Methods). Solid lines show best-fitting GEV distributions (SI Methods, section S3). The maximal surge index during hurricane Katrina in 2005 is shown as a dotted line.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Each subplot shows an example of empirical return periods (circles) and associated 5–95% confidence intervals (horizontal extent of gray band) estimated from 1,000 random samples generated with a prescribed distribution (red). The random samples were drawn from a GEV distribution with parameters k = 0.4, σ = 1.5, and μ = 2.5. Units are arbitrary.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

  • Hurricanes and rising global temperatures.
    Holland GJ. Holland GJ. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Nov 27;109(48):19513-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1216735109. Epub 2012 Nov 15. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012. PMID: 23161912 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

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