Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

doi:10.1073/pnas.1717312115

. 2018 Feb 27;115(9):2022-2025.

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115. Epub 2018 Feb 12.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

R S Nerem¹, B D Beckley², J T Fasullo³, B D Hamlington⁴, D Masters⁵, G T Mitchum⁶

Affiliations

¹ Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; [email protected].
² Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771.
³ National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305.
⁴ Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529.
⁵ Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
⁶ College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701.

PMID: 29440401
PMCID: PMC5834701
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

R S Nerem et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018.

. 2018 Feb 27;115(9):2022-2025.

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115. Epub 2018 Feb 12.

Authors

R S Nerem¹, B D Beckley², J T Fasullo³, B D Hamlington⁴, D Masters⁵, G T Mitchum⁶

Affiliations

¹ Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309; [email protected].
² Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771.
³ National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305.
⁴ Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529.
⁵ Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
⁶ College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701.

PMID: 29440401
PMCID: PMC5834701
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115

Abstract

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y² Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Keywords: acceleration; climate change; satellite altimetry; sea level.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

**Fig. 1.**
GMSL from the adjusted processing of ref. (blue) and after removing an estimate for the impacts of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (12) (red), and after also removing the influence of ENSO (green), fit with a quadratic (black). The acceleration (0.084 mm/y²) is twice the quadratic coefficient.

**Fig. 2.**
ENSO GMSL correction (blue) compared with detrended GMSL (red, Pinatubo effects removed).

**Fig. 3.**
Differences between altimeter and tide gauge observed sea level used to estimate the error in the acceleration estimate (13).

See this image and copyright information in PMC

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References

1. Nerem RS, Chambers DP, Choe C, Mitchum GT. Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Mar Geod. 2010;33(Suppl 1):435–446.
1. Ablain M, et al. Satellite altimetry-based sea level at global and regional scales. Surv Geophys. 2017;38:7–31.
1. Church JA, White NJ. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett. 2006;33:L01602.
1. Merrifield MA, Merrifield ST, Mitchum GT. An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise. J Clim. 2009;22:5772–5781.
1. Dangendorf S, et al. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2017;114:5946–5951. - PMC - PubMed

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[1] Nerem RS, Chambers DP, Choe C, Mitchum GT. Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Mar Geod. 2010;33(Suppl 1):435–446.

[2] Nerem RS, Chambers DP, Choe C, Mitchum GT. Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Mar Geod. 2010;33(Suppl 1):435–446.

[3] Ablain M, et al. Satellite altimetry-based sea level at global and regional scales. Surv Geophys. 2017;38:7–31.

[4] Ablain M, et al. Satellite altimetry-based sea level at global and regional scales. Surv Geophys. 2017;38:7–31.

[5] Church JA, White NJ. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett. 2006;33:L01602.

[6] Church JA, White NJ. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett. 2006;33:L01602.

[7] Merrifield MA, Merrifield ST, Mitchum GT. An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise. J Clim. 2009;22:5772–5781.

[8] Merrifield MA, Merrifield ST, Mitchum GT. An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise. J Clim. 2009;22:5772–5781.

[9] Dangendorf S, et al. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2017;114:5946–5951. - PMC - PubMed

[10] Dangendorf S, et al. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2017;114:5946–5951. - PMC - PubMed

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Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

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Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era

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