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. 2017;17(8):2325-2338.
doi: 10.1007/s10113-017-1155-z. Epub 2017 Apr 26.

The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK

Maurice Skelton  1   2   3 , James J Porter  4 , Suraje Dessai  3 , David N Bresch  1 , Reto Knutti  2
Affiliations

The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK

Maurice Skelton et al. Reg Environ Change. 2017.

Abstract

This paper seeks to understand why climate information is produced differently from country to country. To do this, we critically examined and compared the social and scientific values that shaped the production of three national climate scenarios in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. A comparative analysis of documentary materials and expert interviews linked to the climate scenarios was performed. Our findings reveal a new typology of use-inspired research in climate science for decision-making: (i) innovators, where the advancement of science is the main objective; (ii) consolidators, where knowledge exchanges and networks are prioritised; and (iii) collaborators, where the needs of users are put first and foremost. These different values over what constitutes 'good' science for decision-making are mirrored in the way users were involved in the production process: (i) elicitation, where scientists have privileged decision-making power; (ii) representation, where multiple organisations mediate on behalf of individual users; and (iii) participation, where a multitude of users interact with scientists in an equal partnership. These differences help explain why climate knowledge gains its credibility and legitimacy differently even when the information itself might not be judged as salient and usable. If the push to deliberately co-produce climate knowledge is not sensitive to the national civic epistemology at play in each country, scientist-user interactions may fail to deliver more 'usable' climate information.

Keywords: Adaptation; Civic epistemology; Climate scenarios; Co-production; Decision-making.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Comparison of the visuals of the British, Swiss and Dutch climate scenarios, 2009–2014. Top CH2011 divides Switzerland into three climatic areas with corresponding seasonal ranges for three future time periods. The example shows temperature changes under emission scenario A2. Middle KNMI’14 only visualises winter and summer temperature and precipitation changes to increase legibility, combining all four scenarios with three historical averages. Data for autumn, spring and the natural variability are available only through a table. Bottom UKCP09 visualises likely changes as probability density functions (PDFs) for each of the three emission scenarios. This graph holds no temporal information—for each of the climate variables, time periods, grid points and regions, such a graph is available online. The example indicates changes in summer-mean daily maximum temperature in South East England for the 2080s (sources: CH2011 ; KNMI ; Jenkins et al. 2009)
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