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. 2021 Mar 18;17(3):e1008674.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008674. eCollection 2021 Mar.

Connectivity, reproduction number, and mobility interact to determine communities' epidemiological superspreader potential in a metapopulation network

Affiliations

Connectivity, reproduction number, and mobility interact to determine communities' epidemiological superspreader potential in a metapopulation network

Brandon Lieberthal et al. PLoS Comput Biol. .

Abstract

Disease epidemic outbreaks on human metapopulation networks are often driven by a small number of superspreader nodes, which are primarily responsible for spreading the disease throughout the network. Superspreader nodes typically are characterized either by their locations within the network, by their degree of connectivity and centrality, or by their habitat suitability for the disease, described by their reproduction number (R). Here we introduce a model that considers simultaneously the effects of network properties and R on superspreaders, as opposed to previous research which considered each factor separately. This type of model is applicable to diseases for which habitat suitability varies by climate or land cover, and for direct transmitted diseases for which population density and mitigation practices influences R. We present analytical models that quantify the superspreader capacity of a population node by two measures: probability-dependent superspreader capacity, the expected number of neighboring nodes to which the node in consideration will randomly spread the disease per epidemic generation, and time-dependent superspreader capacity, the rate at which the node spreads the disease to each of its neighbors. We validate our analytical models with a Monte Carlo analysis of repeated stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) simulations on randomly generated human population networks, and we use a random forest statistical model to relate superspreader risk to connectivity, R, centrality, clustering, and diffusion. We demonstrate that either degree of connectivity or R above a certain threshold are sufficient conditions for a node to have a moderate superspreader risk factor, but both are necessary for a node to have a high-risk factor. The statistical model presented in this article can be used to predict the location of superspreader events in future epidemics, and to predict the effectiveness of mitigation strategies that seek to reduce the value of R, alter host movements, or both.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
(a) An example of a human network model with 1000 nodes and 1,000,000 individuals. A stochastic metapopulation SIR model was processed on this network, and the red arrows represent the spread of the outbreak. (b) A data tree showing the order in which the outbreak spread throughout the network. Nodes are sorted by the order in which they first spread the infection to a neighboring node, and the y-axis represents the time of arrival of the epidemic.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Estimation of probability-dependent superspreader capacity for a node in an uncorrelated network graph, assuming all its neighbors have R ≃ 1.
In this figure Superspreader capacity is defined as the expected number of neighbors to which the node will spread the outbreak within one generation.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Estimated probability-dependent superspreader capacity in a human population network with 10,000 nodes, with (a) random uncorrelated network, (b) scale free network, and (c) small world network.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Estimation of time-dependent superspreader capacity for a node in an uncorrelated network graph.
Superspreader capacity is defined as the expected velocity at which a node will spread the outbreak to all its neighbors with R ≥ 1. We do not expect the structure of the network to affect this relationship significantly.
Fig 5
Fig 5. One-variable response curves of superspreader risk in terms of degree, R, diffusion, centrality, and clustering.
Note that these curves have been rescaled for clarity. A scatter plot showing observed versus predicted risk indices for individual nodes is also shown, with a line indicating a 1:1 relationship.
Fig 6
Fig 6. Two-dimensional response curves of superspreader risk index.
Each contour line represents one decile of risk, and each shaded area contains roughly 10% of all tested nodes.

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