Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w

. 2022 Jul;607(7919):555-562.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w. Epub 2022 Apr 28.

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

Colin J Carlson^#^{1

2}, Gregory F Albery^#^{3

4}, Cory Merow⁵, Christopher H Trisos⁶, Casey M Zipfel⁷, Evan A Eskew^{8

9}, Kevin J Olival⁸, Noam Ross⁸, Shweta Bansal⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected].
² Center for Global Health Science & Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected].
³ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected].
⁴ EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA. [email protected].
⁵ Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
⁶ African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
⁷ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
⁸ EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
⁹ Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA.

^# Contributed equally.

PMID: 35483403
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

Colin J Carlson et al. Nature. 2022 Jul.

. 2022 Jul;607(7919):555-562.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w. Epub 2022 Apr 28.

Authors

Colin J Carlson^#^{1

2}, Gregory F Albery^#^{3

4}, Cory Merow⁵, Christopher H Trisos⁶, Casey M Zipfel⁷, Evan A Eskew^{8

9}, Kevin J Olival⁸, Noam Ross⁸, Shweta Bansal⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected].
² Center for Global Health Science & Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected].
³ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected].
⁴ EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA. [email protected].
⁵ Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
⁶ African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
⁷ Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
⁸ EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
⁹ Department of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA.

^# Contributed equally.

PMID: 35483403
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w

Abstract

At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals^1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife^3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

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Comment in

Climate change will force new animal encounters - and boost viral outbreaks.
Gilbert N. Gilbert N. Nature. 2022 May;605(7908):20. doi: 10.1038/d41586-022-01198-w. Nature. 2022. PMID: 35484346 No abstract available.
Disease spread: heating and stirring the global viral soup.
Baker RE, Metcalf CJE. Baker RE, et al. Nature. 2022 Jul;607(7919):455-456. doi: 10.1038/d41586-022-01474-9. Nature. 2022. PMID: 35641613 No abstract available.
Pathogens in a warming world.
McKay A. McKay A. Nat Ecol Evol. 2023 Jan;7(1):2. doi: 10.1038/s41559-022-01964-z. Nat Ecol Evol. 2023. PMID: 36631675 No abstract available.

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References

1. Carlson, C. J., Zipfel, C. M., Garnier, R. & Bansal, S. Global estimates of mammalian viral biodiversity accounting for host sharing. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1070–1075 (2019). - DOI
1. Olival, K. J. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546, 646–650 (2017). - DOI
1. Hoberg, E. P. & Brooks, D. R. Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20130553 (2015). - DOI
1. Morales-Castilla, I. et al. Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 376, 20200360 (2021). - DOI
1. Burrows, M. T. et al. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507, 492–495 (2014). - DOI

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[1] Carlson, C. J., Zipfel, C. M., Garnier, R. & Bansal, S. Global estimates of mammalian viral biodiversity accounting for host sharing. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1070–1075 (2019). - DOI

[2] Carlson, C. J., Zipfel, C. M., Garnier, R. & Bansal, S. Global estimates of mammalian viral biodiversity accounting for host sharing. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1070–1075 (2019). - DOI

[3] Olival, K. J. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546, 646–650 (2017). - DOI

[4] Olival, K. J. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546, 646–650 (2017). - DOI

[5] Hoberg, E. P. & Brooks, D. R. Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20130553 (2015). - DOI

[6] Hoberg, E. P. & Brooks, D. R. Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20130553 (2015). - DOI

[7] Morales-Castilla, I. et al. Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 376, 20200360 (2021). - DOI

[8] Morales-Castilla, I. et al. Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 376, 20200360 (2021). - DOI

[9] Burrows, M. T. et al. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507, 492–495 (2014). - DOI

[10] Burrows, M. T. et al. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507, 492–495 (2014). - DOI

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Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

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