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. 2023 Jul 7;9(27):eadf0198.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adf0198. Epub 2023 Jul 5.

Constraining the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Last Interglacial sea level

Robert L Barnett  1   2 , Jacqueline Austermann  3 , Blake Dyer  4 , Matt W Telfer  5 , Natasha L M Barlow  6 , Sarah J Boulton  5 , Andrew S Carr  7 , Roger C Creel  3
Affiliations

Constraining the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Last Interglacial sea level

Robert L Barnett et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

Polar temperatures during the Last Interglacial [LIG; ~129 to 116 thousand years (ka)] were warmer than today, making this time period an important testing ground to better understand how ice sheets respond to warming. However, it remains debated how much and when the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets changed during this period. Here, we present a combination of new and existing absolutely dated LIG sea-level observations from Britain, France, and Denmark. Because of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the LIG Greenland ice melt contribution to sea-level change in this region is small, which allows us to constrain Antarctic ice change. We find that the Antarctic contribution to LIG global mean sea level peaked early in the interglacial (before 126 ka), with a maximum contribution of 5.7 m (50th percentile, 3.6 to 8.7 m central 68% probability) before declining. Our results support an asynchronous melt history over the LIG, with an early Antarctic contribution followed by later Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.. Sea-level changes from ice-sheet mass loss and gravitational, rotational, and deformational effects.
(A) Normalized global (left) and regional (NW Europe, right) sea-level changes from instantaneous West AIS (WAIS) mass loss [following Hay et al. (22)]. The scale is normalized to 1 and demonstrates the sensitivity of NW Europe to WAIS mass loss. White and pink markers denote the location of sea-level index points and sea-level limiting data, respectively. (B) Normalized global and regional sea-level changes caused by instantaneous mass loss from the GIS following the ice melt pattern by Calov et al. (38); white regions are areas of sea-level fall. This demonstrates the general insensitivity of sea level in NW Europe to GIS mass loss. (C) Relative sea-level changes due to GIA at 126 ka based on a well-performing GIA model [i.e., 71-km lithosphere thickness, upper and lower mantle viscosities of 0.4 × 1021 and 10 × 1021 Pa s, respectively, an EIS with an ice mass SLE of 40 m, and a slow deglaciation rate; see fig. S1 (G to K)]. (D) The same as for (C) but at 118 ka.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.. LIG sea-level highstand in NW Europe.
(A) Estimated LIG sea level in NW Europe after accounting for long-term deformation and glacial GIA, showing the median (solid blue line) posterior estimate of the Bayesian inversion along with the central 68% (darker shading) and 95% (lighter shading) probabilities. This quantity is only inferred for the time range 128 to 117 ka (see Materials and Methods). (B to D) Local sea-level model posteriors [shading showing central 68 and 95% probabilities, as in (A)] for specific regions in the database. Note that data elevations have been corrected for long-term uplift, and markers show the most likely posterior age.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.. Greenland and Antarctic contributions to LIG sea level.
(A) GIS models (n = 8; gray lines) showing global SLE contributions from the ice sheet (gray) and the resulting mean (±1σ) time-varying sea-level change in NW Europe (green line and shading). (B) Glacial GIA-corrected LIG sea level in NW Europe, with the Greenland component (A) removed. (C) Antarctic contribution to global LIG by removing contributions from glaciers and thermal expansion from (B) and accounting for the GIA signal of Antarctic mass loss. The global Antarctic contribution is compared against SLE ice loss from the Southern Hemisphere (16) in (C) and compared against SLE mass loss from Antarctica (15, 42, 43) and the target range of LIG Antarctic SLE mass loss used to parametrize projection models (6) in (D). (E and F) Probability density functions of the magnitude (E) and timing (F) of peak Antarctic contributions to GMSL during the LIG. The bar above (E) demonstrates the central 68% (darker) and 95% (lighter) probability.
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