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. 2023 Oct 17;14(1):6542.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7.

The momentum of the solar energy transition

Femke J M M Nijsse  1 , Jean-Francois Mercure  2   3   4 , Nadia Ameli  5 , Francesca Larosa  5   6 , Sumit Kothari  5 , Jamie Rickman  5 , Pim Vercoulen  2   7 , Hector Pollitt  3   4
Affiliations

The momentum of the solar energy transition

Femke J M M Nijsse et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Decarbonisation plans across the globe require zero-carbon energy sources to be widely deployed by 2050 or 2060. Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth, and its economic attractiveness is improving fast in a cycle of increasing investments. Here we use data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting modelling to establish which zero carbon power sources could become dominant worldwide. We find that, due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies. Uncertainties arise, however, over grid stability in a renewables-dominated power system, the availability of sufficient finance in underdeveloped economies, the capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose employment. Policies resolving these barriers may be more effective than price instruments to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Worldwide share in electricity production of various technologies.
In 2020, fossil fuels produce 62% of electricity. This percentage reduces to 21% in 2050, with solar responsible for 56% of production.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Renewable share of electricity.
a total renewables (hydro + wind + solar + biomass) and (b) solar PV. Initially, renewables are dominated by hydropower and to a lesser extent wind. This is soon overtaken by solar, depending on regional factors.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Regionally weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), including system storage costs and excluding policies.
a EU-27 (b) United States (c) India (d) China (e) Japan and (f) Brazil. Shaded areas are the 10–90% confidence interval. Solar PV + system storage is already among the cheapest forms of electricity. In some regions, wind and solar remain competitive, whereas solar becomes much cheaper in others. Without carbon taxation, coal is typically cheaper than gas.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Technology with the lowest LCOEssc by year and E3ME region.
Each map shows the 70 E3ME regions: in 2020 (a), 2023 (b), 2027 (c) and 2030 (d). The biggest shift occurs between 2020 and 2027, which sees a range of technologies give way to solar PV as the cheapest source of electricity.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Shares of solar PV in the power sector when varying key inputs.
a The overall histogram of the 2050 shares of solar PV. b The shares solar PV depending on who pays for storage costs (variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, or the grid operator). Box plot elements: Centre line: median, box limit: upper and lower quartiles, whiskers: 1.5x interquartile range, points: outliers c, Shares of solar PV depending on the learning rate of onshore and offshore wind energy, d, depending on the learning rate of solar PV and e, depending on the lead time for solar projects.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6. Investments in new generating capacity.
a shows power sector investments as a percentage of GDP. The strong peak around 2030 for China and India is explained by a saturation in addition of additional solar capacity, in combination with a growing GDP and declining solar costs. b shows power sector investment with respect to 2019 values. Investment is forecast to see a fast growth worldwide relative to historical trends. Various regions in the Global South, in particular India and Africa, will see an even steeper rise in investment in generating capacity by mid-century, due to projected rapid economic growth.
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