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. 2024 Mar 26;15(1):2275.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-46577-1.

Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration

Natalia Hasler  1 , Christopher A Williams  2 , Vanessa Carrasco Denney  3 , Peter W Ellis  4 , Surendra Shrestha  5 , Drew E Terasaki Hart  3   6 , Nicholas H Wolff  7 , Samantha Yeo  3 , Thomas W Crowther  8 , Leland K Werden  8 , Susan C Cook-Patton  9
Affiliations

Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration

Natalia Hasler et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Net climate impact (in megagrams carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, Mg CO2e ha−1) and albedo offset (%).
a The net climate impact accounts for both albedo change and carbon storage to estimate maximum CO2e. Orange colors indicate net climate-negative locations, whereas blues indicate net climate-positive. For comparison to other studies, we also provide estimates in carbon equivalents (Mg Ce, italicized text to the left of the color ramp). b Albedo offset is the percent of maximum carbon storage offset by changes in albedo. Purple colors indicate locations where albedo offsets >50% of maximum carbon storage, whereas green indicates <50% albedo offset. In both maps, data are binned for display purposes and the scale bar immediately to the right of the maps indicates the 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, and 95% land-area percentiles (top to bottom). Source data are provided as a Source data file (see “Data availability”).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Variation in carbon storage and albedo change across and within biomes (in megagrams of carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, MgCO2e ha−1).
Within biomes, both potential carbon storage (x-axis) and albedo change (y-axis) can vary. These panels depict the consequences of transitioning from the most likely open to forest land cover at every pixel in that biome (irrespective of current land cover or suitability for restoring tree cover). The colors indicate the amount of area with a specific albedo change and carbon combination (see color bar). Pixels that fall along the solid diagonal line have zero net climate impact (albedo offsets carbon storage perfectly). Pixels along the dashed diagonal lines correspond to 50% albedo offset and the horizontal dashed line indicates areas with no albedo offset. We show four biomes with divergent patterns: A a biome where albedo change is of low concern, B a biome where changes in albedo offset much but not all of the climate benefit, C a biome where changes in albedo offset most of the climate benefit, and D a biome where there are both low and high albedo offsets. Source data are provided as a Source data file (see “Data availability”).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Net climate impact (in megagrams of carbon dioxide equivalents, Mg CO2e) and albedo offset (%) in published opportunity maps.
a, b Griscom et al., c, d Bastin et al., and e, f Walker et al.. The scale bar to the immediate right of the maps indicates the 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, and 95% land-area percentiles (top to bottom). For comparison to other studies, we also provide estimates in carbon equivalents (Mg Ce, italicized text to the left of the color ramp). Source data for maps are provided as a Source data file (see “Data availability”). Bar charts provide biome-level summaries. There is some additional opportunity that occurred in non-forest biomes (montane grasslands, flooded grasslands, mangroves, and deserts, see Table S2).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Distribution of albedo offset for on-the-ground projects.
These project pixels represent past, on-going, and planned projects that are part of the Grain for Green Program or uploaded onto Restor. The overall height of the bar shows how often the project pixels (Fig. S4) overlap with different albedo offset bins (left y-axis). The darker gray shading indicates the number of pixels that overlap with at least one of the opportunity maps,,. The red line indicates the cumulative proportion of projects (right y-axis). This figure does not include NA values (Table S3).
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