In 1494, upon Christopher Columbus's return to
Europe, delegates from Spain and Portugal met in the
Spanish village of Tordesillas to divide the New World.
In accord with an earlier papal decree, Portugal
asserted dominion over what we now know as Brazil, while
Spain claimed the rest of the Americas. However, they
could not legislate for all time: the latecomers,
Britain and France, would one day control much of the
western hemisphere.
ILLUSTRATION: ERIC BOWMAN
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Recently, technical standards, especially for
telecommunications networks, have come to resemble the
Treaty of Tordesillas—they have left out a very
important latecomer: China. Take, for example, digital
cellular networks, just one of many areas where China is
suddenly trying hard to play a role. Here, CDMA cellular
technology, dominant in a handful of countries, plays
the role of Brazil, while the European-bred GSM
standard, like Spain, covers the rest of the new
(cellular) world.
Dividing the domain of communications networks into
CDMA and GSM has not prevented the emergence of
competing technologies, any more than the Treaty of
Tordesillas stopped other countries from colonizing the
Americas. Today, as the two move from second- to
third-generation technologies and beyond, China is
backing the creation of an alternative standard called
TD-SCDMA, which could markedly change the telecom
landscape worldwide, even if adopted only in China's
vast home market.
As China steps into the championship ring of
international commerce, its nearly 400 million
households—all desiring cellphones and DVD players and
local area networks—constitute just one of the two
well-muscled arms with which it will fight. The other is
its status as a leading world supplier of manufactured
goods.
So the world needs to take notice when, in another of
its recent initiatives, China proposes a standard for
tracking goods using radio frequency identification
tags, especially when bolstered by a developing
coordination with another consumer goods heavyweight,
Wal-Mart. The Bentonville, Ark.âbased merchandiser, by
far the world's largest, plans to lead the way in
commercial use of RFID technology, gearing up for the
day when every television and razor blade it sells is
tagged and tracked from factory to store shelf. Last
year, Wal-Mart, by itself, imported goods worth US $18
billion from China—about as much as New Zealand
imported from everywhere! China, for its part, exports
more goods each year than most countries produce.
Worldwide, it sent out about $300 billion worth last
year, a number larger than the entire 2004 gross
domestic product of Switzerland or Sweden.
China's manufacturing prowess used to be limited to
clothing and other simple goods, but today it makes
everything from Xboxes to Internet routers. And China's
standards initiatives have been in some of the hottest
areas of technology. In computer networking, it has one
for Wi-Fi security, known as Wireless Authentication and
Privacy Infrastructure, or WAPI. The Chinese authorities
would like to require that Wi-Fi equipment sold in China
comply with the WAPI standard. That threatens to
fracture the Wi-Fi world, because the rest of the world
won't be using WAPI. Wi-Fi manufacturers would have to
make two different chip sets for encrypted
communications, one for the Chinese market and one for
the rest of the world.
In another hot area, next-generation DVDs, the
Chinese have also jumped in, unbidden, in two different
ways. First, in July, the government approved Enhanced
Video Disk (EVD). It's based on older red-laser
technologies, not on blue lasers, as both Blu-ray Disk
and HD-DVD are. (There is also a competing red-laser
standard to EVD within China, known as HVD.)
China also has an entry in the race for the next
generation of software to run on high-definition DVDs.
In this other set-to, which concerns the way audio and
video data on DVDs are encoded, the roles of Spain and
Portugal are played by Apple and Microsoft. Apple has
backed MPEG-4, the successor to MPEG-2, which is used to
encode most digital video today. Microsoft, on the other
hand, has a proprietary scheme, known as Windows Media.
Just when the two camps had reluctantly agreed for the
standards to coexist, Tordesillas-like (both Blu-ray and
HD-DVD will read both formats), along came the Chinese
with a third standard, known as Audio Video Coding
Standard, or AVS.