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Research Article
GLACIERS

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

David R. Rounce https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4481-4191 [email protected], Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3211-506X, Romain Hugonnet https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0955-1306, William Kochtitzky https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9487-1509, Matthias Huss https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2377-6923, Etienne Berthier https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5978-9155, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5374-2145, Daniel Farinotti https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3417-4570, Brian Menounos https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3370-4392, and Robert W. McNabb https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0016-493XAuthors Info & Affiliations
Science
5 Jan 2023
Vol 379, Issue 6627
pp. 78-83
DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324
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Melting away

Mountain glaciers, perennial ice masses excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, are a critical water resource for nearly two billion people and are threatened by global warming. Rounce et al. projected how those glaciers will be affected under global temperature increases of 1.5° to 4°C, finding losses of one quarter to nearly one half of their mass by 2100 (see the Perspective by Aðalgeirsdóttir and James). Their calculations suggest that glaciers will lose substantially more mass and contribute more to sea level rise than current estimates indicate. —HJS

Abstract

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.
Related Perspective
Acting now will reduce glacier loss
By Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Timothy D. James

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Supplementary Materials

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Methods
References (32–41)
Figs. S1 to S28
Tables S1 to S5

References and Notes

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Published In

Science
Volume 379 | Issue 6627
6 January 2023

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Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Received: 15 January 2022
Accepted: 14 November 2022
Published in print: 6 January 2023

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported in part by the high-performance computing and data storage resources operated by the Research Computing Systems Group at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute. This text reflects only the author’s view and funding agencies are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
Funding: This work was funded by the following: National Aeronautics and Space Administration grant 80NSSC20K1296 (to D.R. and Re.Ho.); National Aeronautics and Space Administration grant 80NSSC20K1595 (to D.R. and Re.Ho.); National Aeronautics and Space Administration grant 80NSSC17K0566 (to D.R. and Re.Ho.); National Aeronautics and Space Administration grant NNX17AB27G (to D.R. and Re.Ho.); Norwegian Research Council project #324131 (to Re.Ho.); Tula Foundation and Canada Research Chairs (to B.M.); National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (to B.M. and Lu.Co.); Vanier Graduate Scholarship (to W.K.); Swiss National Science Foundation project 184634 (to Ro.Hu., M.H., Lo.Co., and D.F.); ArcticNet Network of Centres of Excellence Canada (to Lu.Co.); University of Ottawa, University Research Chair program (to Lu.Co.); European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme grant 101003687 (to F.M.); Austrian Science Fund (FWF) grant P30256 (to F.M.); French Space Agency CNES (to E.B. and Ro.Hu.)
Author contributions: Conceptualization: D.R. and Re.Ho. Data curation: D.R. Formal analysis: D.R. Funding acquisition: D.R., Re.Ho., M.H., D.F., E.B., B.M., and Lu.Co. Investigation: D.R. Methodology: D.R., F.M., and Re.Ho. Project administration: D.R. and Re.Ho. Resources: D.R., F.M. (glacier data); Ro.Hu., M.H., E.B., D.F., B.M., and R.M. (mass balance data); Lo.Co. (climate data); W.K. and Lu.Co. (frontal ablation data); Software: D.R. (PyGEM); F.M. (OGGM); D.B. (emulators); Visualization: D.R., Re.Ho, and Ro.Hu. Writing – original draft: D.R. Writing – review and editing: all authors, especially Re.Ho.
Competing interests: Authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Data and materials availability: The datasets generated for this study can be found in the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at https://nsidc.org/data/hma2_ggp/versions/1. The model code is publicly available at https://github.com/drounce/PyGEM and https://github.com/OGGM/oggm.
License information: Copyright © 2023 the authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original US government works. https://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse

Authors

Affiliations

David R. Rounce* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4481-4191 [email protected]
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Regine Hock
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Roles: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Visualization, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Fabien Maussion https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3211-506X
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
Roles: Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Resources, Software, Validation, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Romain Hugonnet https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0955-1306
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.
Roles: Resources, Visualization, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
William Kochtitzky https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9487-1509
Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
School of Marine and Environmental Programs, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA.
Role: Resources.
View all articles by this author
Matthias Huss https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2377-6923
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.
Roles: Conceptualization, Methodology, Resources, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Etienne Berthier https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5978-9155
LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.
Roles: Funding acquisition, Investigation, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Douglas Brinkerhoff
Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA.
Roles: Formal analysis, Methodology, Software, and Writing - original draft.
View all articles by this author
Loris Compagno
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Roles: Conceptualization, Investigation, Validation, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Luke Copland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5374-2145
Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Roles: Data curation, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Resources, Visualization, Writing - original draft, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Daniel Farinotti https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3417-4570
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Roles: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Brian Menounos https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3370-4392
Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada.
Hakai Institute, Campbell River, BC, Canada.
Roles: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Resources, Validation, and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author
Robert W. McNabb https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0016-493X
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster University, Coleraine, UK.
Roles: Resources and Writing - review & editing.
View all articles by this author

Funding Information

French space agency CNES
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme: 101003687
ArcticNet Network of Centres of Excellence Canada
University of Ottawa, University Research Chair program
Vanier Graduate Scholarship

Notes

*
Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

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    • Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir,
    • Timothy D. James,
    Acting now will reduce glacier loss, Science, 379, 6627, (29-30), (2023)./doi/10.1126/science.ade2355
    Abstract
  2. Endangered glaciers could hang on if humans take action, Nature, (2023).https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00002-7
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