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Deterministic or Probabalistic Analysis

Deterministic and probabilistic analysis are the two main types of safety analysis used to assess risks. Deterministic analysis aims to demonstrate tolerance to frequent "design basis" events using conservative rules, while probabilistic analysis provides a realistic risk estimate by considering all potential accidents and failures. In practice, modern safety assessments combine both approaches to leverage their complementary nature.

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151 views1 page

Deterministic or Probabalistic Analysis

Deterministic and probabilistic analysis are the two main types of safety analysis used to assess risks. Deterministic analysis aims to demonstrate tolerance to frequent "design basis" events using conservative rules, while probabilistic analysis provides a realistic risk estimate by considering all potential accidents and failures. In practice, modern safety assessments combine both approaches to leverage their complementary nature.

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kbmn2
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Risktec

RISKworld issue 1 spring 2002 pg 3 the newsletter of risktec solutions limited

Deterministic or probabilistic analysis?


The goal of safety assessment is to identified faults/hazards that are within the Further Reading
demonstrate that the risk associated with “design basis”, thereby defining the limits Engineering Safety Management, Volumes 1 & 2,
the construction, operation or decommis- of safe operation. Fundamentals and Guidance, Issue 3, Railtrack,
sioning of any facility is at an acceptable January 2000.
level. One of the questions that people Probabilistic Analysis, which aims UK Offshore Operations Association, Industry
sometimes ask is, “which analysis to provide a realistic estimate of the risk Guidelines of a Framework for Risk Related
techniques should be used to determine presented by the facility. This can also be Decision Support, Issue 1, April 1999.
whether this goal is achieved?” used to confirm the validity of the deter- HSE, Safety Assessment Principles for Nuclear
ministic safety assessment. Plants.
In essence, there are two main types of
analysis which could be used: In practice, modern safety assessments Reducing Risks, Protecting People, HSE’s
tend to make use of both deterministic and Decision-Making Process, 2001.
Deterministic Analysis, which aims probabilistic techniques because of their
to demonstrate that a facility is tolerant to complementary approaches.

PROS AND CONS OF THE APPLICATIONS


Qualitative or Deterministic Probabilistic
Hazard/Initiating Event Limited to consideration of relatively All potential credible accidents are
frequent events, commonly called included
“Design Basis accidents”
Analysis Method Utilises conservative rules, standards Arguments follow a well established
and guidelines methodology
Arguments may use a variety of Best estimate assumptions
techniques, including engineering
judgement, factors of safety,
incredibility of failure arguments, etc.
Common Cause Failure Not normally assessed in detail Multiple and common cause failures
easily assessed
Design Able to support the design process A design concept is required and
probabilistic analysis may not be
available in time to support the
detailed design phase
Aids in identifying cost effective safety
improvements to existing facilities
Results Compliance with the rules, standards The risk from the facility may be
and guidelines infers a safe facility determined
Does not determine residual risk Allows the targeting of maintenance
Cost/Time Relatively quick and economical May be time consuming especially if
full PSA/QRA is used

UK Principal Office Other UK Offices Middle East For further information,


Wilderspool Park Aberdeen Dubai including office contact
Greenall’s Avenue Ashford Muscat details, visit:
Warrington WA4 6HL Edinburgh www.risktec.co.uk
North America
United Kingdom Glasgow or email:
Calgary
Tel +44 (0)1925 611200 London [email protected]
Houston
Fax +44 (0)1925 611232

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