Probability means possibility.

It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a

random event. The value is expressed between zero and one. Probability has been introduced in
Maths to predict how likely events are to happen.
The meaning of probability is basically the extent to which something is likely to happen. This is
the basic probability theory which is also used in the probability distribution, where you will learn
the possibility of outcomes for a random experiment. To find the probability of a single event to
occur, first we should know the total number of possible outcomes.

Probability Definition
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted
with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e. how likely they are to
happen, using it. Probability can range in between 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an
impossible one and 1 indicates a certain event. Probability for class 10 is an important topic for
the students which explains all the basic concepts of this topic. The probability of all the events
in a sample space sums up to 1.
For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two possible outcomes are
possible (H, T). But if we toss two coins in the air, there could be three possibilities of events to
occur, such as both the coins show heads or both shows tails or one shows heads and one tail,
i.e.(H,H), (H,T),(T,T).

Formula for Probability

The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal to the ratio of
the number of favourable outcomes and the total number of outcomes.

Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total Number of outcomes

Sometimes students get mistaken for “favourable outcome” with “desirable outcome”. This is the
basic formula. But there are some more formulas for different situations or events.

Examples and Solutions

1) There are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow and 1 is blue. What is the probability
of picking a yellow pillow?
Ans: The probability is equal to the number of yellow pillows in the bed divided by the total
number of pillows, i.e. 2/6 = 1/3.
2) There is a container full of coloured bottles, red, blue, green and orange. Some of the
bottles are picked out and displaced. Sumit did this 1000 times and got the following
results:

 No. of blue bottles picked out: 300

 No. of red bottles : 200
 No. of green bottles : 450
 No. of orange bottles : 50
a) What is the probability that Sumit will pick a green bottle?
Ans: For every 1000 bottles picked out, 450 are green.
Therefore, P(green) = 450/1000 = 0.45
b) If there are 100 bottles in the container, how many of them are likely to be green?
Ans: The experiment implies that 450 out of 1000 bottles are green.
Therefore, out of 100 bottles, 45 are green.

Probability Tree
The tree diagram helps to organize and visualize the different possible outcomes. Branches and
ends of the tree are two main positions. Probability of each branch is written on the branch,
whereas the ends are containing the final outcome. Tree diagram used to figure out when to
multiply and when to add. You can see below a tree diagram for the coin:

Types of Probability
There are three major types of probabilities:

 Theoretical Probability
 Experimental Probability
 Axiomatic Probability

Theoretical Probability
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability is mainly
based on the reasoning behind probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical
probability of getting head will be ½.

Experimental Probability
It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The experimental probability can
be calculated based on the number of possible outcomes by the total number of trials. For
example, if a coin is tossed 10 times and heads is recorded 6 times then, the experimental
probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.
Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all types. These axioms
are set by Kolmogorov and are known as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic
approach to probability, the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can be
quantified. The axiomatic probability lesson covers this concept in detail with Kolmogorov’s three
rules (axioms) along with various examples.
Conditional Probability is the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring based on the
occurrence of a previous event or outcome.

Probability of an Event
Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or possible equally likely
ways. Then the probability of happening of the event or its success  is expressed as;
P(E) = r/n
The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is expressed as:
P(E’) = n-r/n = 1-r/n
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can say;
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is equal to 1.

What are Equally Likely Events?

When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening, then they are called equally
likely events. The results of a sample space are called equally likely if all of them have the same
probability of occurring. For example, if you throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6.
Similarly, the probability of getting all the numbers from 2,3,4,5 and 6, one at a time is 1/6.
Hence, the following are some examples of equally likely events when throwing a die:

 Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die

 Getting an even number and an odd number on a die
 Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die
are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal.

Complementary Events
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states that an event will occur or not.
Like a person will come or not come to your house, getting a job or not getting a job, etc. are
examples of complementary events. Basically, the complement of an event occurring in the exact
opposite that the probability of it is not occurring. Some more examples are:

 It will rain or not rain today

 The student will pass the exam or not pass.
 You win the lottery or you don’t.
Independent Events

Independent events are those events whose occurrence is not dependent on any other
event. For example, if we flip a coin in the air and get the outcome as Head, then again if
we flip the coin but this time we get the outcome as Tail. In both cases, the occurrence of
both events is independent of each other.

Mutually Exclusive Events

What are Mutually Exclusive Events?
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same
time. Mutually exclusive events never have an outcome in common.

Probability Rules
1. Probability Rule #1 states:
For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

2. Probability Rule #2 states:

The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1

3. The Complement Rule (#3) states that

P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
or when rearranged

P(A) = 1 – P(not A)
The latter representation of the Complement Rule is especially useful when we
need to find probabilities of events of the sort “at least one of …”

4. The General Addition Rule (#5) states that for any two events,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B),
where, by P(A or B) we mean P(A occurs or B occurs or both).

In the special case of disjoint events, events that cannot occur together, the
General Addition Rule can be reduced to the Addition Rule for Disjoint Events
(#4), which is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). *
*ONLY use when you are CONVINCED the events are disjoint (they do NOT
overlap)

5. The restricted version of the addition rule (for disjoint events) can be easily

extended to more than two events.
6. So far, we have only found P(A and B) using logic and counting in simple
examples
Probability Terms and Definition
Some of the important probability terms are discussed here:

Term Definition Example

Sample Space The set of all the possible outcomes to 1. Tossing a coin, Sample Space (S)
occur in any trial = {H,T}
2. Rolling a die, Sample Space (S) =
{1,2,3,4,5,6}

Sample Point It is one of the possible results In a deck of Cards:

 4 of hearts is a sample point.

 the queen of Clubs is a sample
point.

Experiment or A series of actions where the outcomes are The tossing of a coin, Selecting a card
Trial always uncertain. from a deck of cards, throwing a dice.

Event It is a single outcome of an experiment. Getting a Heads while tossing a coin is an

event.

Outcome Possible result of a trial/experiment T (tail) is a possible outcome when a coin

is tossed.

Complimentary The non-happening events. The Standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a heart,
event complement of an event A is the event not then A’ = Don’t draw a heart
A (or A’)

Impossible Event The event cannot happen In tossing a coin, impossible to get both
head and tail

Solved Probability Problems

Question 1: Find the probability of rolling a ‘3 with a die.’
Solution:
Sample Space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Number of favourable event = 1
Total number of outcomes = 6
Thus, Probability, P = 1/6
Question 2: Draw a random card from a pack of cards. What is the probability that the
card drawn is a face card?
Solution:
A standard deck has 52 cards.
Total number of outcomes = 52
Number of favourable events = 4 x 3 = 12 (considered Jack, Queen and King only)
Probability, P = Number of Favourable Outcome/Total Number of Outcomes = 12/52= 3/13.
Question 3: A vessel contains 4 blue balls, 5 red balls and 11 white balls. If three balls are
drawn from the vessel at random, what is the probability that the first ball is red, the
second ball is blue, and the third ball is white?
Solution: The probability to get first ball is red or the first event is 5/20.
Now, since we have drawn a ball for the first event to occur, then the number of possibilities left
for the second event to occur is 20 – 1 = 19.
Hence, the probability of getting second ball as blue or the second event is 4/19.
Again with the first and second event occurred, the number of possibilities left for the third event
to occur is 19 – 1 = 18.
And the probability of the third ball is white or third event is 11/18.
Therefore, the probability is 5/20 x 4/19 x 11/18 = 44/1368 = 0.032.
Or we can express it as P = 3.2%.
Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is:

1. equal to 1
2. equal to 4
3. less than 13

Solution:
1) To find the probability that the sum is equal to 1 we have to first determine the sample space S
of two dice as shown below.
S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
1) Let E be the event “sum equal to 1”. Since, there are no outcomes which where a sum is equal
to 1, hence,
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0
2) Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4 such as;
E = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}
Hence, P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12
3) From the sample space, we can see all possible outcomes, E = S, give a sum less than 13.
Like:
(1,1) or (1,6) or (2,6) or (6,6). So you can see the limit of an event to occur is when both dies
have number 6, i.e. (6,6). Hence,
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1