International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

THE IMPACT OF EFFECTIVE FORECASTING ON BUSINESS

GROWTH, A CASE OF BUSINESSES IN JUBA MARKET

Michael Lawrence Mogga Rombe

Department of Business Administration
School of Management Sciences
University of Juba
Republic of South Sudan

Abstract
This paper addresses the impact of effective forecasting in relation to business growth in South
Sudan. The main aim of this study is to examine the scientific application of forecasting
techniques in modern business and to prove its effectiveness on business growth. Different
forecasting techniques are applied in this study to determine the correlation in this respect. The
multiple methodologies (combination of face to face interviews and structured questionnaires) to
collect relevant data are used and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SSPS) for data analysis
is applied. A sample size of 61 sixty one business were taken to measure the impact of
forecasting on them in relation to business growth. The cross data statistics suggest that there is
strong correlation between forecasting and business growth in a given market and most business
forecasting are based on the length of experience and subjective manager’s judgments.
Keywords: Forecasting, Business Growth, Impact, Techniques, Market

1. Introduction:
Forecasting is required in many situations. Deciding whether to build another power plant in the
next five years requires forecast of future demand. Scheduling staff in a call centre requires
forecast of call volumes. Stocking an inventory requires forecast to stock requirements.
Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Entering new market
require market forecasting. So, whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved forecasting
is an important aid in an effective and efficient planning. (Hyndman. D. Rand A. George 2013)
1. To make an effective decision, managers rely on answers to relevant and important
questions such as the following
2. In which direction do current trend points?
3. Is the current situation and outlier or a sign of rising instability?
4. Is their crisis under way?

Well grounded/established forecasts answers such questions and help business organization
compete in the dynamic, short and long term live economy. In addition, they expand the leeway

www.ijebmr.com Page 196

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

of a business, since forecast help them avert adverse trends in times or reinforce beneficial one.
(KMPG 2017)

An effective business forecast affects business growth positively, but ineffective use of an
appropriate method of forecasting may affect business growth negatively, because it is assumed
that non satisfaction of consumers taste will lead to negative or law demand for the goods and
services offered to the consumers. This is one way of determining effective business growth
forecasting and its usefulness.
All forecast whether financial forecast per se or about specifics of business, like sales growth or
projection of economy in totality, are just informed guesses. Generally most forecast falls under
two overarching approaches though there are many of them and they are Qualitative and
quantitative. Qualitative method is mainly use for forecasting short-range predication and it can
be sought of as expert driven where as quantitative methods are concerned with data and avoid
the fickleness of people underlying the numbers. They predicts variables like sales, gross
domestic product and housing prices to mentioned only few and are normally long rang in nature
and are measured in month or years
However sound predication of demands and trends are very essential items if managers are to
cope up with seasonality, sudden changes in business levels, and price- cutting maneuvers of
competition, strikes and large swings of economy. To handle the increasing variety and
complexity of managerial forecasting problems, many forecasting techniques have been
developed in recent years. Each has its special use, and care must be taken to select the correct
techniques for particular application. (Chambers at el 2017)P1
However; the selection of method depends on many factors such as, in the context of the
forecast, the relevance and individuality of historical data, the degree of accuracy, desirability,
the time period to be forecast, the cost /benefit of the forecast to the business, and the time
available for making the analysis. As such, a manager generally assumes that when asking a
forecaster to prepare a specific projection, the request itself provides sufficient information for
forecaster to do the job. This is never true. Successful forecaster begins with collaboration
between the manager and the forecaster, in which they work to answer main forecast objects
queries (Problems).

With adequate understanding of the basic features and limitation of the techniques, the decision
maker can help the forecaster formulate the forecasting problem properly and can therefore have
more confidence in forecasts provided and use them more effectively .The forecaster ,in turn
,must bring together the technique with the knowledge and experience of the manager.
(Chambers et al 2017)P36

2. An Overview of Forecasting Literature:

Decision-Making, the principle task of management, is challenging because most information
received by managers is no longer current and the future, in which decision take effect, is

www.ijebmr.com Page 197

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

uncertain. In addition, our modern management information systems, such as data warehouses
are often limited to focus on the past based on historical data. Managers should therefore be able
to show whether objectives set in the past, are achievable d today? (KPMG 2017) “Forecasting is
described as the art of projecting future events” (Hazier and Render2011) P136.It normally
involves taking historical data and projecting them into the future application of mathematical
model and in some cases adjusted by a manger‘s healthy judgment. “It is a common statistical
task in business, where it helps informed decisions about scheduling of production,
transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long –term strategic planning. However,
business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals”.
Hence; forecasting is all about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the
information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might
impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. They should be linked to
forecasts and plans, but this does not always happen. Too often, goals are set without any plan on
how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to
forecasts and goals .It involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make
your forecasts match your preset goals.
Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision making activities of management, as it can
play an important role in many areas of the business or company. Modern organizations require
short term, medium and long term forecasts, depending on the specific application. (Rob 2009)
Managers must bear in mind that what works best in one firm may be catastrophic in another
business concern, depending on the business environment and manpower capacity based on the
merits of recruitment in the organization. They must also know that there is some limitation form
what is expected from forecasting given a set of tools applied. Forecast is seldom, if ever, perfect
and are costly and time consuming to prepare and monitor.
However; effective forecasting in both short and long term will depend on the company’s
product and services. Business forecast are used to predict sales, profit, cost, prices, interest rate,
taxation polices, governance, political environment and others. Despite the use of computers and
sophisticated mathematical models in forecasting modern business environment it is not an exact
science. Experience, judgment, and technical expertise play a vital role in developing meaningful
and useful forecasts in modern business concern.
Hence, in most business, the responsibilities for preparing the demand forecast lies with the
marketing or sales managers, rather than operations. So it is important to harness, marketing and
operations managers’ position, since forecasts are also major responsibility for operation
managers; otherwise business will be in dilemma between the two departments.
In reality, an organization needs to develop a forecasting system involving several approaches to
predicting uncertain events. Such forecasting systems require the development of expertise in
identifying forecasting problems, applying a range of forecasting methods, selecting appropriate
methods for each problem, and evaluating and refining forecasting methods overtime. It is also

www.ijebmr.com Page 198

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

important to have strong organizational support for the use of formal forecasting methods if they
are to be used successfully (Rob 2009)

2.1 Forecast Features:

There are some features which are common to all forecasts. However; Stevenson (2007) cites the
following:
1- Forecasting techniques and methods generally assume that the same underlying casual
system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future.
2- Forecast are rarely perfect, actual results may differ from predicted values –therefore
allowances should be made for inaccuracies
3- Forecast for group items are more are accurate than forecasts for individual items and
4- Forecast accuracy decreases as the time period covered by forecast increases.
Forecasting is divided into three categories as follows,
a) Short term forecast:
It has a time span of up to one year; it is commonly three month and can extent up to 12
month not more

b) Medium term forecast:

It ranges from one year to three years, not more. This kind of forecast is suitable for sales
planning, production, budgeting and cash budgeting and analysis

c) Long Term Forecasting:

Is generally of duration of three years or more, It is used in planning for new product, capital
expenditure, facility location or expansion and research and development

1. Types of forecast
There are three major types of forecast in planning for future operations and they are as
follows:

2. Economic forecast:
It address businesses cycles by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, and other
economic indicators

3. Technological forecast:
It is concerned with the level of technological development which can result in growth of new
exciting products, requiring new plants and machinery

4. Demand forecast:

www.ijebmr.com Page 199

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

These are projections of demand for a company’s product and services. They are also known as
sales forecast ,which determine a company’s production capacity and scheduling system s and
serves as inputs to finance ,marketing and human resources planning (Heizer2011)P137.
The decision maker can help the forecaster formulate the forecasting problem properly and can
therefore have more confidence in forecasts provided and use them more effectively .The
forecaster ,in turn, must blend the techniques with the knowledge and experience of managers

2.2 The Important of Forecasting in Modern Business:

Managers should know that forecasts are just estimates of demand until actual demands become
realistic. Forecast of demands, therefore, affect various areas of business operation and growth
and sum are as follows,

a) Human Resources:
Human resource is an important capital in any business organization, therefore, hiring,
training and development, and dismissal of employees depends on anticipated demand and
the quality of manpower employed. Senior Management needs to give enough warning time
to Human Resources Departments to hire, train and lay-off workers. For example, inadequate
training could result in poor quality products and services production.

b) Capacity
If business capacity is inadequate, its ability to meet customers demand become ineffective,
and which might lead to loss of customers, market share and good will and if excess capacity
is built on the other hand, business could end up in a situation whereby huge amounts of
capital are tied up with little or no return. Therefore, Managers should project balance
capacity to enable strike a balance and wine the market.

c) Supply chain Management:

Good supplier relations and price discount for materials and parts depend on accurate forecasting
.The forecast must strive to get the right items in the right quantity, at the right price and at the
right time.

2.3 Steps in Forecasting

1-Determine the use for forecast

What business objectives. This question will lead and provide an indication to the level of detail
needed in the forecast, i.e. the amount of resources needed and willing to be committed by the
business and the level of adequacy and efficiency necessary.

2-Select the items to be forecasted

www.ijebmr.com Page 200

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

Explore as to whether to forecast for individual or group items

3- Determine the time prime of the forecast

Management has to determine the time prime of the forecast as follows short, medium or long
term

4-Select the forecasting technique

5-Gather relevant data and Make Forecast
Identify any assumptions that are made in conjunction with preparing and using of the forecast

6-Monitor:
To see whether forecast is performing as planned and to the satisfaction of the management, if
not re-examine the methods and assumptions and validity of the data and reworked the forecast
for suitability.

2.4 Forecasting Methods

There are mainly two forecasting methods, qualitative and quantitative,

1-Qualitative methods:
Qualitative methods are mainly consisting of subjective inputs and it incorporate factors such the
decision maker’s intuition, emotions and personal experience. However; the group of high level
managers often in combination with statistical models is grouped to arrive at an estimate of
demand in a given company situation.

a) Sales force composite

The sales staff is often a good source of information because of their direct contact with
customers. Here; each sales person estimate what projected sales will be in his her area or region
of domain.

b) Customer’s survey:
Information is solicited from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans.
Managers should ensure that they exercise a great deal of care in constructing a survey,
administering and interpretation of the results in order to obtain meaningful and valid
information for objective and rational decision making

2-Quantitative Methods:
This forecasting methods based it’s forecasting on historical information and they fall under
following two categories/models as follows.

www.ijebmr.com Page 201

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

1-Time Series Models

These models based their prediction on assumption that the future is a continuation of the past,
so they use a series of past data to make forecast (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly etc)
no matter how valuable they are, may be ignored.
Analysis of time series data requires managers to identify the underlying behavior of the series;
this can easily be done by simply plotting the data and visually examining the plot/graph as
follows
a. Trend: It refers to gradual, long term movement in the data over time .Changes in
income, population, age distribution or cultural views.
b. Seasonality: Is a data pattern that repeats itself after a period of time say days, weeks,
month, and years? Restaurants and Supermarkets are examples of business which
experiences weekly yearly seasonal variations
c. Cycles: These are patterns in data that occur every several years; these are often related
to a variety of economic and political factors or natural factors in case of agricultural
conditions
d. Irregular Variations; These are due to unusual circumstances such as severe weather
changes, earthquake, or major change in product and service. Time series model uses the
following methods of data for forecasting and they are

1-Naïve Model
This is a forecasting technique that assumes demand in the next period is equal to demand in the
most recent period, say if Vivacell sold 2000 cellular phones in may ,then management assume
that they will sell the same (2000)phones in June.
2- Moving averages
This is a forecasting method that uses an average of the n most recent periods of data to forecast
the next period, Say if n represent 3 month, then we basically add up the actual sales in the last
three months and divide by 3.

Moving average demand in pervious n period

Months Water Pumps Sales

January 12
February 13
March 15
April 16
May 18

www.ijebmr.com Page 202

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

June 20
Solutions as per formula above

Months Water pumps sales 3month moving averages

January 12
February 13
March 15
April 16 (12+13+15)/3 = 13.33
May 18 (13+15+16)/3 =14.66
June 20 (15+16+18)/3 =16.33

The management could also use weighted moving averages by using the following formula

Weighted moving averages = ∑ (weight for period n) (demand in period n)

∑weights

Weeks Water Pumps Sales Three weeks moving average

1 12
2 13
3 15
4 16 {(3*15)+ (2*13)+ (1*12)}/6 =83/6 =13.8
5 18 {(3*16) +(2*15) +(1*13)}/6 = 91/6 = 15.16
6 20 {(3*18)+ (2*16) +(1*15)/ 6 = 106/6 =17.66
7 1 {(3*20) +(2*18) +(1*16)}/6 = 112/6 = 18.66

Exponential Smoothing
It is a weighted moving –average forecasting technique in which data points are weighted by an
exponential function. Exponential function is useful when very little past data is available.

New forecast = last period’s forecast + (last period’s actual demands – last period’s forecast),
where is a weight, or smoothing constant, chosen by forecaster, that has a value between o and
1. This equation can be written mathematically as follows

Ft = Ft-1 + At-1 – Ft-1) where Ft = new forecast, Ft-1 = Previous forecast, = smoothing
constant (0≤ ≤ 1) and At-1 = Previous period’s actual demand.

Example
In January Juba top sports dealer projected February demand for 153 new sports items. Actual
February sales were 164 new sports items. Using smoothing constant chosen by management of

www.ijebmr.com Page 203

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

= .20, we can forecast March demand using the exponential smoothing model formula as
follows.
New forecast for March demand = 153 + .2(164 – 153) = 155.2
Therefore; forecast for March new demand for sports items is rounded up to 155

3.0 Methodology
In this paper the techniques used for data collection were combination of questionnaires
containing both open and closed ended questions, observations and secondary data were gathered
from books, journals, documents, records and periodicals.

3.1 Research Design

This was an exploratory study; it used a case study design where both quantitative and
qualitative approaches were applied. The quantitative approach allowed the researcher to solicit
information that have been expressed numerically while the qualitative approach enabled the
researcher to solicit narrative and descriptive information which were expressed in textual
format. The study sought to assess the forecasting capacity for business growth within the
businesses in Juba market.
3.2 Study Population
The study population involved businesses in the selected Juba markets that are either
professionals, or involved in performing forecasting functions.
3.3 Sample Size
The sample frame included managers involved in the forecasting function. These were
forecasting professionals or persons involved in performing forecasting functions in each of the
business concern in Juba.
3.4 Sampling Techniques

Stratified, purposive and random sampling methods were used. The samples constituted the job
family of forecasting managers whose sizes were determined based on convenience of the
researcher. These methods gave every member of the sample frame an equal opportunity of
being selected thereby representing a well-balanced study of the population.

3.5 Data Collection Methods

The Analysis utilized both primary and secondary data to come up with the findings and
recommendations contained in this report.
a) Questionnaire survey

www.ijebmr.com Page 204

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

Primary data were collected using questionnaires administered to respondents who are involved
in forecasting functions for business growth. Both closed and open ended questions were used to
ensure efficient and convenient collection of the qualitative and quantitative data.
b) Document Review
The study obtained secondary data through document review of available information on
forecasting. This was in order to gain an understanding of the current forecasting capacity
environment for business growth in Juba market.
c) Data Collection Instruments Questionnaire
Questionnaire with open and mostly close-ended questions were used for collecting primary
data. This enabled the collection of 61 questionnaires within a period of two weeks. The
collected data were checked for errors and omissions.
d) Validity
The Questionnaires were developed and reviewed to ensure high degree of validity in measuring
the study variables.

e) Reliability
Reliability was guaranteed by pre-testing of the questionnaires which ensured that the research
design, data collection instruments, respondents and timeframe were valid which guaranteed
quality of the data. The selection of respondents based on involvement in forecasting activities
ensured that the study area was not abstract to them.
f) Data Collection Procedures
Questionnaires were designed, and were then pretested and decision taken to proceed with the
data collection.
3.6 Data Analysis
Obtained data were analyzed using both quantitative and qualitative procedures.
a) Quantitative Data Analysis
Quantitative data from the questionnaire were examined for errors & non-responses, coded and
responses captured in the SPSS version 16. This was then analyzed using statistical methods.
b) Qualitative Data Analysis
Qualitative data on the other hand from the open ended questions of the questionnaire were
edited, examined and sorted or grouped together to generate common themes in relation to the
objectives of the study.

4.0 Analysis and Discussion

Table 1: Basic Information

Basic information Frequency Percent

1990s 14 23.0
1980s 32 75.4
www.ijebmr.com Page 205
International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

1970s 6 85.2
1960 6 95.1
1950s 2 98.4
1940s 1 100.0
Total 61
In table one, indicates that most business man in modern business in Juba markets are of young
age, 52.5 of them were born in 1980s, Therefore it shows that young population of people in
Juba are going private

Table 2: Field of Study

Field of Study
Frequency Percent
Missing 18 29.5
Business/ Economics 26 42.6
Engineering 1 1.6
Sociology/ Community Studies 2 3.3
Medicine 1 1.6
Others 13 21.3
Total 61 100.0
Table 2 above show to us that 42.6% respondents are well educated and specialized in the area of
business and economics and it also reflect to us that they use modern business techniques in
managing their businesses and few of them are from different specializations such as engineering
,medicine and other social sciences. It is evidence that young educated class is taking up small
business serious and it also creates self employment

Table 3: Forecasting

Forecasting Frequency Percent

No 2 3.3
Seasonal 10 16.4
Sometimes 31 50.8
Yes 18 29.5
Total 61 100.0
This table Shows that about 50.8% respondents undertake forecasting sometimes and 29.5%
undertakes business forecasting for business growth, in other way it tells us that majority of the
business owners in Juba market undertake business forecast Occasionally where as some of them
do it normally

www.ijebmr.com Page 206

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

Table 4: Business forecasting

Business forecasting Frequency Percent

To know our product demand
21 34.4
position
To know as to where we are 9 14.8
To Know Business Financial Position 2 3.3
Understand Business Environments 16 26.2
Foresee Business Growth 13 21.3
Total 61 100.0

The above table shows that 34.4% of business managers make business forecasting in order to
know their product demand position in the market where as 26.2%undertake business forecasting
to understand business environment, 21.3% undertake business forecasting to foresee their
business growth, 14.8 are making forecasting to know where they are where they would want to
be and only 3.3% wants to know their financial position.
However, it is clear that knowing company product demand is essential factor for any business to
determining its general health financially, socially, politically and economically.

Table 5: Types of Business Forecasting

Types of Business Forecasting Frequency Percent

Missing 1 1.6
Qualitative 17 27.9
Quantitative 39 63.9
Not any 4 6.6
Total 61 100.0

As it has been reflected in table 2 educational level of respondents, it’s evident in table 5 here
that level of education play greater role in type of forecasting. About 63.3 of the respondents
used quantitative methods of forecasting, 27.9 used qualitative where as 6.6 did not use any. In
this paper it is evident that those respondents, who said they have not used any method of
forecasting, used qualitative methods indirectly, because they based their decisions on personal
judgments and experience.
The respondents in the study are mostly educated class but vast majority of the business
managers are either uneducated or with elementary education and in most cases they undertake
qualitative business forecasting

www.ijebmr.com Page 207

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

Table 6: Period /term of business forecasting

Term of business forecasting

Frequency Percent
Short term 5 8.2
Medium 24 39.3
Long term 30 49.2
Nothing 2 3.3
Total 61 100.0
The table above suggests that about 49.2% businesses in Juba market used long term forecasting
to determine their business future, about 39.3 used medium term forecasting, 8.2% used short
term forecasting and about 3.3 don’t apply any methods. Based on the observation most
managers applied all of the above methods in accordance to the factors and nature of the need of
the business, for example when it wants to expands than long term forecasting is use

Table 7: Bases of forecasting

Bases of forecasting Frequency Percent

Judgment 15 24.6
Experience 7 11.5
Common Sense 4 6.6
All 34 55.7
Not Sure 1 1.6
Total 61 100.0
Table 7 above reflects that 55.7 % of the respondents used, Judgments, Experience and Common
senses in forecasting short term requirements of their businesses, 24.6% applied judgments, 11.5
used personal experience and 6.6% applied common sense where as 1.6% are not sure of the
methods they used, but in our observation they used all of the above mentioned forecasting
method accordingly.

Table 8: Methods of forecasting:

Methods of forecasting Frequency Percent
Time Series 23 37.7
Trend Analysis 30 49.2
Seasonality 5 8.2
Irregular Variation 3 4.9
Total 61 100.0

www.ijebmr.com Page 208

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

Table 8 above shows that about 49.2% respondents used trend analysis method for forecasting
the future of their business where as 37.7% applied time series analysis, 8.2% respondents used
seasonality’s analysis and 4.9% applied irregular variation
However; Observations tells us that most respondents in Juba market applied mainly scientific
methods for forecasting their businesses. Whereas majority of the traders in Juba market are
illiterates and do not use any scientific methods for forecasting, the selected businesses in this
work are mostly foreigners and they manage groceries, malls and businesses like printing house
and standard restaurants and hotels.

Table 9: Tools for measuring business growth

Tools for measuring business growth Frequency Percent

I'm not sure 3 4.9
Disagree 3 4.9
Strongly Disagree 3 4.9
Agree 28 45.9
Strongly Agree 24 39.3
Total 61 100.0
The above table reflects that 45.9% of the respondents agree that forecasting is an important tool
for measuring business growth, 39.3% strongly agree and14.7 of the respondents either not sure,
disagree or strongly disagree.
It has been observed in this paper that business managers agree and strongly agree that
forecasting is very essential in predicting their businesses future and determination of their
success

Table 10: Planning Precedes Forecasting

Planning Precedes
Forecasting Frequency Percent
I don't agree 6 9.8
Agree 14 23.0
Strongly agree 33 54.1
Disagree 4 6.6
Strongly disagree 4 6.6
Total 61 100.0

The above table suggests that 54.1 of the respondents strongly agree that planning precedes
forecasting, 23% agree and 9.8 don’t agree where as 13.2%either disagree or strongly disagree.

www.ijebmr.com Page 209

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

In this paper it has been realized that planning is always head forecasting in any matters of
business concern.

Table 11: Business growth trend

Business growth trend Frequency Percent

I don't agree 1 1.6
Agree 22 36.1
Strongly agree 32 52.5
Disagree 1 1.6
Strongly disagree 5 8.2
Total 61 100.0

Table 11 suggests that forecasting is an important tool in predicting business growth trend, this
has been proved by 52.5%of the respondent who strongly agree and 36.1% who agree where as
8.2% strongly disagree and 3.6 don’t agree and disagree respectively. The observation shows that
more managers accepted that forecasting is an essential tool for predicting their future business
growth.

Table 12: Forecasting includes judgments and Quantitative methods

Forecasting includes judgments and Quantitative

methods Frequency Percent
I don't Agree 1 1.6
Agree 19 31.1
Strongly Agree 36 59.0
Disagree 1 1.6
Strongly Agree 4 6.6
Total 61 100.0

Table 12 suggests that 59.0% of the respondents strongly agree that forecasting includes
judgments as well as quantitative methods and 31.1% agree where as 6.6% strongly disagree and
3.2 either don’t agree or disagree. It is evident that forecasting is both qualitative and quantitative
in nature.

5.0 Conclusion

In this paper it is evident that most of the small businesses in Juba are run by uneducated class
who are using personal judgment in business decision making, whereas most business managers

www.ijebmr.com Page 210

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

in the sample are educated class and mostly economist, or business experts and are mostly non
South Sudanese.
When appropriate forecasting methods are applied, they can results to more positive results to
business growth. Parameters such as business growth, demand and capacity forecast are essential
in any business planning and consequently business growth forecasting. Forecasting is of a great
value to any business and it can determine business future growth in any market if appropriate
methods are applied in particular case and environment.
In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that business growth forecasting can be attained
adequately by usage of appropriate forecasting method, and it is also evident that judgments are
essential in this respect ,thought systematic methods are paramount also in particular situations.
Further investigations are recommended to ascertain business forecasting growth and wider
sample size is strongly recommended.

6.0 References:

[1] Armstrong .S. et al (2004) Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in

forecasting. Http: www. Forecasting Principles .com/content/View/3/3/

[2] Chambers. C. John et al (2017) How to choose Right Forecasting Techniques, Harvard
Business Review (Harvard Business Publishing) PP1-36
[3] Claes F, et al (2010) The Effect of Consumers Satisfaction on Consumers spending
Growth. Journal of Marketing Research: February 2010, Vol. 47, No. 1, PP28-35
[4] Giese L.Joan et al (2002) Defining Consumer Satisfaction-Academy of Marketing
Sciences USA
[5] Greif, M, (1991) The Visual Factory: Building Participation through shared information,
Port land Productivity press
[6] H.J.Rob (2009) Business forecasting methods
[7] Harvard Business Review (2017) the Overcommitted Organization
[8] Hassan, D., L.J et.al (2001) Market Response Models: Econometric and Time Series
Analysis 2nd Ed. (USA.Boston KAPublisher)
[9] Henizer.j.R.B, (2006) Principles of operations Management 8th Edition (USA Prentice
Hall)
[10] Holt, C.C (1957) Forecasting trends and seasonal by exponentially weighted averages,
O.N.R Memorandum 52/1957, Carnegie Institute of Technology. Reprinted in
International Journal of Forecasting (2004)

www.ijebmr.com Page 211

International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research

Vol. 2, No. 01; 2018

ISSN: 2456-7760

[11] Hyndman.J.Rob, Athanasopoulos. G. (2013) Forecasting: Principles and Practices

.https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0987507109/ref=s9u_simh_g

[12] Know what will happen tomorrow, Business forecasting (kampg.ch/data 2017)
[13] Makridakis, .et.al (1998) Forecasting Methods and applications, 3rd Ed, (USA.NY.W&
Sons Publishers)
[14] Polanski Arnold et al (2017) Forecasting Multi-dimensional risk at short and long
horizon. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 33, issue 4.Octomber –December
2017 Pages 958 969.

[15] Schroeder G. (2008) Operations Management, International Edition (USA, McGraw Hill)
[16] Schroeder G. (2011) Operations Management, International Edition (USA, McGraw Hill)
[17] Stevenson J. (2007) Production Operation Management, International Edition USA;
McGraw Hill.

www.ijebmr.com Page 212