Grade

10

MATHEMATICS
QUARTER 3 – MODULE 5
MELC 7

Probability of a
Union of Two
Events
PART I.
MELC 7: Illustrates the probability of a union of two events

A. Introduction and discussion

It is remarkable that a science which began with the consideration of games of
chance should have become the most important object of human knowledge. The most
important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability.
Pierre Simon de Laplace
Maybe, you are familiar with games of chance such as lotto. You have also learned
that the likelihood of winning in any game of chance can be estimated using probability.
However, do you know that the theory of probability is not only for games of chance?
Probability is very useful in many practical and important fields in science, engineering,
economics, and social sciences. Why do you think is the study of probability so important to
the advancement of science and technology? You will learn the reasons when you study this
module.
What is Probability?
Probability is the mathematics of chance. It tells us the relative frequency with which we
can expect an event to occur.
The greater the probability the more likely the event will occur. The lower the probability the
probability the less likely the event will occur.
Random experiment is a process or activity which produces a number of possible
outcomes. The outcomes which result cannot be predicted with absolute certainty.
Examples 1: Flip two coins and observe the possible outcomes of heads and tails.
2. Select two marbles without replacement from a bag containing 3 white,
2 red and 1 green marbles.
3. Roll two die and observe the sum of the points on the top faces of each
die.
• All of the above are considered experiments.
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is an outcome.
Sample space is a list of all possible outcomes of the experiment. It is denoted as S.

e.g. All 6 faces of a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Other examples of sample spaces may include lists, tables, grids, venn diagrams, tree
diagrams or may use combination of these.

1
You can use a tree diagram to determine the sample space of this experiment. There are six
outcomes on the first die {1,2,3,4,5,6} and those outcomes are represented by six branches
of the tree starting from the “tree trunk”. For each of these six outcomes, there are six
outcomes, represented by the branches. By the fundamental counting principle, there are
6*6=36 outcomes.
Sample space of all possible outcomes when two dice are tossed.

Event is a subset of the sample space. An event can be classified as a simple event or
compound event.
Events are often represented by uppercase letters, such as A, B or C.
Notation: The probability that event E will occur is written P(E) and is read
“the probability of event E.”
Simple event is an event which has a single outcome.
Compound event is the union or intersection of two events. Events which consist of more
than one outcome.
Probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the simple events that constitute
the event. The theoretical probability of an event is defined as the number of ways the
event can occur divided by the number of possible outcomes in sample space. Using
mathematical notation,
𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓
P(E) =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆
𝑛(𝐸)
we have • P(E) =
𝑛(𝑆)
2
Example 1: In rolling a die, what is the probability of getting a 3?
Solution: There is only one outcome in getting a 3 and there are 6 possible outcomes, so
1
P(3) =
6

Example 2:
What is the probability of a sum of 7 when two dice are rolled?
Solution:
First we must calculate the number of events of the sample space. From our previous
example, we know that there are 36 possible sums that can occur when two dice are rolled.
Of these 36 possibilities, how many ways can a sum of seven occur? Looking back at the
table that gives the sample space we find that we can obtain a sum of seven by the
outcomes { (1,6), (6,1), (2,5), (5,2), (4,3), (3,4)} There are six ways two obtain a sum of
seven. The outcome (1,6) is different from (6,1) in that (1,6) means a one on the first die and
a six on the second die, while a (6,1) outcome represents a six on the first die and one on
the second die.
𝑛(𝐸) 6 1
The answer is P(E)= = =
𝑛(𝑆) 36 6

There are 4 probability rules

1. The probability of any event is a number (either a fraction, a decimal, or a
percent).
Example: The weather forecasts shows 80% rain.
4
P(rain) = 80% = 0.8 = 5

2. If an event will never happen, then its probability is 0.

Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting an 8.
Since the sample space consists of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. It is impossible to get an 8.
0
Hence, P(8) = =0
6
3
3. If an event is sure to happen, then the probability is 1.
Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less
than 7?
6
P(number less than 7) = =1
6
4. The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space is 1.
Example: If a fair coin is flipped,
1 1
P(T) = and P(H) =
2 2

P(T) + P(H) = 1

1 1
+ =1
2 2

P(A ᴜ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B) or P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

B. Illustrative Examples
1. One card is selected from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability that the card is either a spade or a face card?
Solution: P(A ᴜ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
13 12 3
= + -
52 52 52
22
=
52
≈ 0. 42

4
2. A group of students took a test. The sections and gender are summarized below. If
one student is chosen at random, find the probability that the student was female or
section C?
Section A Section B Section C Total
Male 18 19 3 40
Female 12 4 9 25
Total 30 23 12 65
Solution:
P(F or C) = P(F) + P(C) - P(F and C)
25 12 9
= + -
65 65 65
28
=
65
≈ 0.43
3. Lianne tells her mom that there is a 40% chance she will clean her room, a 70% she
will do her homework, and a 24% chance she will clean her room and do her
homework. What is the probability of Lianne cleaning her room or doing her
homework.
Solution: P(C or H) = P(C) + P(H) – P(C and H)
= 40% + 70% - 24%
43
= 86% or 0.86 or 50

4. Your mother only ever makes one viand for lunch. The probability that she makes
adobo is 30%. The probability that she makes sinigang is 60%. What is the
probability that she makes adobo or sinigang?
Solution: P(A or S) = P(A) + P(S) – P(A and S)
= 30% + 60% - 0
9
= 90% or 0.9 or
10

5. After your little sister has gone trick-or-treating for Halloween, your mom says she is
allowed to have 2 pieces of candy. The probability of her having a Snickers is 50%.
The probability of her having a peanut butter cup is 60%. The probability of her
having a Snickers or a peanut butter cup is 100%. What is the probability of her
having a Snickers and a peanut butter cup?
Solution: P(S or B) = P(S) + P(B) – P(S and B)
100% = 50% + 60% - P(S and B)
P(S and B) = 110% - 100%
1
= 10% or 0.1 or 10

PART II. Activities

Activity 1

1. If a letter is chosen at random from the word PERSEVERANCE, what is the

probability that the letter chosen is E?
2. What is the probability of getting an 8 from a deck of 52 cards?
5
3. Tristan is asked to choose a day from a week. What is the probability of choosing a
day which starts a day with S?
4. A number is chosen at random from 1 to 10. Find the probability of selecting a
multiple of 3.
5. A bag contains 12 marbles : 3 red, 5 white and 4 green. What is the probability of
getting a red marble?
Activity 2
1. A bag contains 25 chips numbered 1 to 25. If a chip is drawn randomly from the bag, what
is the probability that it is
a. 7 or 15?
b. 5 or a number divisible by 3?
c. even or divisible by 3?
d. a number divisible by 3 or divisible by 4?
2. Daren puts 50 marbles in a box in which 16 are red, 14 are blue, and 20 are yellow. If
Daren picks one marble at random, what is the probability that he selects a red marble or
a blue marble?
3. Out of 735 residents surveyed in a certain community, 426 like watching basketball, 132
like watching volleyball, and 114 like watching basketball and volleyball. What is the
probability that a randomly selected residents like watching basketball or volleyball?
4. A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find the probability of drawing a red card or a 7.
5. Deanna sometimes likes honey or lemon in her tea. There is a 50% chance that she will
have honey and lemon, a 95% chance that she will have honey or lemon, and a 80%
chance that she will have honey. What is the probability that she will have lemon?

Answer Key:

6
PART III. Assessment
MULTIPLE CHOICE
Directions: Read the questions carefully. Choose the letter of your answer and write it on a
separate sheet of paper.

1. Cynthia likes to wear colored blouses. She has 13 blouses in the closet. Three of
these are blue, four are in different shades of red, two are yellow and the rest are of
mixed or different colors. What is the probability that she will wear a blue or a yellow?
3 4 3 2 3 7 7 3
a. + b. + c.. + d. -
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
2. From numbers 1 to 8. What is the probability of choosing an even number or a
number less than 4?
1 3 4 5
a. b. c. d..
4 4 8 8
3. A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find the probability of drawing a red card or
an ace.
1 4 7 2
a. b. c. d.
4 13 13 13
4. A standard dice is rolled. What is the probability that 2, 4 or 6 will be rolled?
1 1 1 1
a. b. c. d.
6 4 3 2
5. Trixie will toss a fair coin twice. If you know that the first coin toss resulted in heads,
what would the probability be that both coins would land on heads?
1 1 1 1
a. b. c. d.
2 3 4 6
6. A party host gives a door prize to one guest chosen at random. There are 27 men
and 21 women. What is the probability that the prize goes to a woman?
27 6 7 3
a. b. c. d.
49 49 16 16

A jar contains 5 blue marbles, 8 red marbles, 4 white marbles, and 3 purple marbles.
Suppose you pick a marble at random without looking. Find the probability of each
event. Write your answer as a fraction in simplest form.
7. P(red)
3 8 3 2
a. b. c. d.
5 20 10 5
8. P(red or white)
3 2 12 1
a. b. c. d.
5 5 20 5
9. P(not white)
1 3 4 3
a. b. c. d.
5 5 5 4
10. Roll a pair of fair dice. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers is 7 or 11?
1 2 1 1
a. b. c. d.
6 9 18 9
11. What is the probability that both dice either turn up the same number or that the sum
of the numbers is less than 5?
1 1 3 5
a. b. c. d.
6 9 18 18

7
12. What is the probability that a number selected at random from the first 50 positive
integers is exactly divisible by 3 or 4?
12 10 8 6
a. b. c. d.
25 25 25 25

A certain school in Pangasinan II has 2 newspapers, Villagers and Tabing Ilog. A

survey of 100 students was conducted to determine the readership of the two
newspapers. It was found that 40 took the Tabing Ilog only, 25 took the Villagers
only, 20 took both the Villagers and Tabing Ilog and 15 took neither paper.
Assuming that the survey reflects the actual readership of the school.

13. What is the probability that a student selected at random reads at least one of two
newspapers?
a. 0.15 b. 0.5 c. 0.65 d. 0.85
14. What is the probability that a student selected at random reads both newspapers?
a. 0.15 b. 0.20 c. 0.25 d. 0.30
15. In a classroom of 30 students, 15 take notes in pencil, 20 students take notes in pen
and 8 students take notes in pen and pencil. What is the probability that a student
use a pen or pencil in taking notes?
9 2 1 1
a. b. c. d.
10 3 3 2

References

Books:

Mathematics- Grade 10 Learner’s Module, First Edition, 2013

Links:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331471407_LESSON_PLAN_IN_Probability_of_Si
mple_Events
https://www. Math.byu.edu./exams/Math118/m118/review_1.pdf

https://www. mpsaz.org