PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION AND ITS IMPORTANCE:

Probability is the study of chance and the likelihood of an event occurring.

It is a branch of mathematics that deals with uncertainty and randomness. The
concept of probability is essential for making informed decisions and managing
risk effectively in various fields. Probability has numerous applications in fields
such as physics, finance, engineering, and computer science.
The word Probability derives from Latin word probability that can also mean
probity, a measure of the authority of a witness in a legal case in Europe, and
often correlated with the witness’s nobility. In a sense, this differs much from
the modern meaning of probability, which, in contrast, is used as a measure of
the weight of empirical evidence and is arrived at from inductive reasoning and
statistical inference.
Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur
or has occurred. The concept has been given an exact mathematical meaning
in probability theory, which is used extensively in such areas of study as
mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to draw
conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying
mechanics of complex systems.
Probability is important because it allows us to make informed decisions in
situations where there is uncertainty or risk. For example, in finance,
probability is used to assess the likelihood of certain investment outcomes and
manage risk effectively. In medical diagnosis, probability is used to assess the
likelihood of a particular disease and make treatment decisions. In engineering,
probability is used to assess the likelihood of a product failing and make design
decisions accordingly.
Probability also plays a crucial role in scientific research, where it is used to
model and predict the behavior of complex systems. For example, probability
is used in the field of physics to predict the behavior of particles at the
subatomic level. In computer science, probability is used to develop algorithms
for machine learning and artificial intelligence.

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probability is an essential concept that allows us to make informed decisions
and manage risk effectively in various fields. Its numerous applications make it
an indispensable tool for analyzing and predicting the behavior of random
events.
Probability is important for a variety of reasons in many different fields,
including science, engineering, economics, finance, and social sciences.
Here are some specific reasons why probability is important:
1. Predicting the likelihood of events: Probability allows us to estimate the
likelihood of an event occurring, even if it has not yet happened or
cannot be directly observed. This can help us make informed decisions
based on the expected outcomes of different options.
2. Risk assessment and management: Probability is crucial for assessing
and managing risk in many industries, such as insurance, finance, and
healthcare. For example, insurance companies use probability to
determine the likelihood of a particular event occurring and set
premiums accordingly.
3. Quality control and process improvement: Probability is often used in
manufacturing and production to improve quality control and optimize
processes. Statistical quality control methods, such as control charts,
rely on probability to detect and analyze variations in the production
process.
4. Decision-making under uncertainty: Probability allows us to make
decisions even when there is uncertainty about the outcome. Decision
analysis and game theory, for example, use probability to model and
analyze complex decision-making scenarios.
5. Data analysis and modeling: Probability is essential for data analysis and
modeling in many fields, including physics, biology, and social sciences.
Probability theory provides a framework for modeling random
phenomena, such as the behavior of particles in a physical system or the
spread of a disease in a population.

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History:

The theory of probability had its origins in games of

chance and gambling. Probability originated from a
gambler’s dispute in 1654 concerning the division of a
stake between two players whose game was
interrupted before its close. The problem was proposed
by a well-to-do gambler, the Chevalier de Mere to
prominent mathematicians including Blaise Pascal who
shared his thoughts with Pierre de Fermat.
The correspondence which ensued between the two mathematicians was
fundamental in the development of modern concepts of probability. From a
mathematical point of view, games of chance are experiments generating
various types of aleatory events, the probability of which can be calculated by
using the properties of probability on a finite space of events.
The work of Christiaan Huygens, in 1657, is a systematic treatise on probability
and deals with games of chance and the problem of points – what today is
known as expectation values.
The first attempt at some mathematical rigour is credited to Pierre-Simon
Laplace.
In 1812, Laplace issued his Theorie Analytique des
Probabilities in which he gave the classical definition of the
probability of a discrete event, which is the proportion of
the number of favorable outcomes to the total finite
number of all possible outcomes, given that all outcomes
are equally likely.
The methods used to compute these probabilities were
mainly combinatorial. Till the end of the 19th century,
Laplace’s contribution remained the most influential of
mathematical probability theory.
An extension of Laplace’s classical definition incorporated the probabilities of
events with infinite outcomes, where the notion of equal likelihood of events
was fundamental in its development.

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According to this extension, the sample space could be any region with a well-
defined measure (length, area, volume, etc.), where the number of points is
uncountable. Many problems of geometric probability were solved using this
extension.
The mathematical theory of probability as we know it today was developed by
Andrey Kolmogorov.
In 1933, Kolmogorov issued his Foundations of the Theory of Probability,
where he combined the notion of sample space and measure theory to
axiomatic probability.
In this measure-theoretic development, random events are represented by
sets and the probability of an event is just a normed measure defined on these
sets. Besides becoming the undisputed axiomatic basis for modern probability
theory, Kolmogorov’s work provided a logically consistent foundation for
probability theory and joined it to the mainstream of modern mathematics.

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Types of Probability:

There can be different perspectives or types of probabilities based on the

nature of the outcome or the approach followed while finding the probability
of an event happening. The four types of probabilities are,
• Classical Probability
• Empirical Probability
• Subjective Probability
• Axiomatic Probability

Classical Probability
Classical probability, often referred to as the "priori" or "theoretical
probability", states that in an experiment where there are B equally likely
outcomes, and event X has exactly A of these outcomes, then the probability of
X is A/B, or P(X) = A/B. For example, when a fair die is rolled, there are six
possible outcomes that are equally likely. That means, there is a 1/6 probability
of rolling each number on the die.

Empirical Probability
The empirical probability or the experimental perspective evaluates probability
through thought experiments. For example, if a weighted die is rolled, such
that we don't know which side has the weight, then we can get an idea for the
probability of each outcome by rolling the die number of times and calculating
the proportion of times the die gives that outcome and thus find the
probability of that outcome.

Subjective Probability
Subjective probability considers an individual's own belief of an event
occurring. For example, the probability of a particular team winning a football
match on a fan's opinion is more dependent upon their own belief and feeling
and not on a formal mathematical calculation.

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Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by Kolmogorov are applied to
all the types. The chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of any event can be
quantified by the applications of these axioms, given as,
• The smallest possible probability is zero, and the largest is one.
• An event that is certain has a probability equal to one.
• Any two mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously, while
the union of events says only one of them can occur.

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Finding the Probability of an Event:
In an experiment, the probability of an event is the possibility of that event
occurring. The probability of any event is a value between (and including) "0"
and "1".

Events in Probability
In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment or a
subset of the sample space.
If P(E) represents the probability of an event E, then, we have,
• P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event.
• P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
Suppose we are given two events, "A" and "B", then the probability of event A,
P(A) > P(B) if and only if event "A" is more likely to occur than the event "B".
Sample space(S) is the set of all of the possible outcomes of an experiment and
n(S) represents the number of outcomes in the sample space.
P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
P(E’) = (n(S) - n(E))/n(S) = 1 - (n(E)/n(S))
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can also conclude that, P(E) + P(E’) = 1

Coin Toss Probability

Let us now investigate the probability of tossing a coin. Quite often in games
like cricket, for deciding as to who would bowl or bat first, we sometimes use
the tossing of a coin and decide based on the outcome of the toss. Let us check
as to how we can use the concept of probability in the tossing of a single coin.
Further, we shall also look into the tossing of two and three coming
respectively.

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Tossing a Coin
A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head, and a tail. The concept of
probability which is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of
outcomes can be used to find the probability of getting the head and the
probability of getting a tail.
Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample Space = {H, T}; H: Head, T: Tail
• P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2
• P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = 1/2

Tossing Two Coins

In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four outcomes. The
probability formula can be used to find the probability of two heads, one head,
no head, and a similar probability can be calculated for the number of tails. The
probability calculations for the two heads are as follows.
Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
• P (2H) = P (0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes =
1/4
• P (1H) = P (1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total
Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
• P (0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes =
1/4

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Tossing Three Coins
The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins simultaneously is equal
to 23 = 8. For these outcomes, we can find the probability of getting one head,
two heads, three heads, and no head. A similar probability can also be
calculated for the number of tails.

Total number of outcomes = 23 = 8 Sample Space = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T,
H), (T, H, H), (T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}
• P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total Outcomes =
1/8
• P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one head/Total Outcomes =
3/8
• P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads /Total Outcomes =
3/8
• P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three heads/Total Outcomes =
1/8

Dice Roll Probability

Many games use dice to decide the moves of players across the games. A dice
has six possible outcomes and the outcomes of a dice is a game of chance and
can be obtained by using the concepts of probability. Some games also use two
dice, and there are numerous probabilities that can be calculated for outcomes
using two dice. Let us now check the outcomes, their probabilities for one dice
and two dice respectively.

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Rolling One Dice
The total number of outcomes rolling of dice is 6, and the sample space is {1, 2,
3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall compute the following few probabilities to help in
better understanding the concept of probability on rolling one dice.
• P (Even Number) = Number of even number outcomes/Total Outcomes
= 3/6 = 1/2
• P (Odd Number) = Number of odd number outcomes/Total Outcomes =
3/6 = 1/2
• P (Prime Number) = Number of prime number outcomes/Total
Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2

Rolling Two Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 62 = 36. The following
image shows the sample space of 36 outcomes on rolling two dice.

Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice. The
probabilities are as follows.

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• Probability of getting a doublet (Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6
• Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice = 11/36
• Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6
As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6 possibilities. When we roll two
dice, there are 36 possibilities. When we roll 3 dice, we get 216 possibilities.
So, a general formula to represent the number of outcomes on rolling 'n' dice
is 6n.

Probability of Drawing Cards

A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into four suits of clubs, diamonds,
hearts, and spades. Each of the clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades have 13
cards each, which sum up to 52. Now let us discuss the probability of drawing
cards from a pack. The symbols on the cards are shown below. Spades and
clubs are black cards. Hearts and diamonds are red cards.

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The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, king. In
these, the jack, the queen, and the king are called face cards. We can
understand card probability from the following examples.
• The probability of drawing a black card is P (Black card) = 26/52 = 1/2
• The probability of drawing a hearts card is P (Hearts) = 13/52 = 1/4
• The probability of drawing a face card is P (Face card) = 12/52 = 3/13
• The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P (4) = 4/52 = 1/13
• The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P (4 Red) = 2/52 =
1/26

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APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY IN REAL LIFE

Probability refers to how likely an event is to occur. Probability is used in all

types of areas in real life including weather forecasting, sports betting,
investing, and more. The following examples share how probability is used in
10 real-life situations on a regular basis.
1. Weather Forecasting
Perhaps the most common real-life example of using probability is weather
forecasting.
Probability is used by weather forecasters to assess how likely it is that there
will be rain, snow, clouds, etc. on a given day in a certain area.
Forecasters will regularly say things like “there is an 80% chance of rain today
between 2PM and 5PM” to indicate that there’s a high likelihood of rain during
certain hours.
2. Sports Betting
Probability is heavily used by sports betting companies to determine the odds
they should set for certain teams to win certain games.
For example, a sports betting company may look at the current record of two
teams and determine that team A has a 90% probability of winning while team
B has just a 10% probability of winning.
Based on these probabilities, the company would offer a higher payout for
people who bet on team B to win since it’s highly unlikely that team B will win.
3. Politics
Political forecasters use probability to predict the chances that certain
candidates will win various elections.
For example, a forecaster might say that candidate A has a 60% chance of
winning, candidate B has a 20% chance of winning, candidate C has a 10%
chance of winning, etc. to give voters an idea of how likely it is that each
candidate will win.

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4. Sales Forecasting
Many retail companies use probability to predict the chances that they’ll sell a
certain amount of goods in each day, week, or month.
This allows the companies to predict how much inventory they’ll need. For
example, a company might use a forecasting model that tells them the
probability of selling at least 100 products on a certain day is 90%.
This means they’ll need to make sure they have at least 100 products on hand
to sell (or preferably more) so they don’t run out.
5. Health Insurance
Health insurance companies often use probability to determine how likely it is
that certain individuals will spend a certain amount on healthcare each year.
For example, a company might use factors like age, existing medical conditions,
current health status, etc. to determine that there’s a 90% probability that a
certain individual will spend $10,000 or more on healthcare each year.
Individuals who are likely to spend more on healthcare will be charged higher
premiums because the insurance company knows that they’ll be more
expensive to insure.
6. Grocery Store Staffing
Grocery stores often use probability to determine how many workers they
should schedule to work on a given day.
For example, a grocery store may use a model that tells them there is a 75%
chance that they’ll have more than 800 customers come into the store on a
given day.
Based on this probability, they’ll schedule a certain number of workers to be at
the store on that day to handle that many customers.
7. Natural Disasters
The environmental departments of countries often use probability to
determine how likely it is that a natural disaster like a hurricane, tornado,
earthquake, etc. will strike the country each year. If the probability is quite
high, then the department will make decisions about housing, resource
allocation, etc. that will minimize the effects done by the natural disaster.

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8. Traffic
Ordinary people use probability every day when they decide to drive
somewhere.
Based on the time of day, location in the city, weather conditions, etc. we all
tend to make probability predictions about how bad traffic will be during a
certain time.
For example, if you think there’s a 90% probability that traffic will be heavy
from 4PM to 5:30PM in your area then you may decide to wait to drive
somewhere during that time.
9. Investing
Investors use probability to assess how likely it is that a certain investment will
pay off.
For example, a given investor might determine that there is a 1% chance that
the stock of company A will increase 100x during the upcoming year.
Based on this probability, the investor will decide how much of their net worth
to invest in the stock.
10. Card Games
Probability is routinely used by anyone who plays card games on a regular
basis.
For example, professional poker players use probability to determine how
likely it is that a certain hand of cards will win, and this informs them on how
much they should bet.
If a player knows that there is a high probability that they will win a certain
hand based on their cards, they will be more likely to bet more money.
Conversely, if they think the probability that they’ll win is low then they may
bet significantly less money.

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ABSTRACT
This project explores the concept of probability its types, event, applications in
real-world scenarios. The classical, empirical, subjective, axiomatic methods of
probability calculation are discussed, as well as the importance of probability.
Real-world applications of probability are explored, including insurance,
gambling, weather forecasting, and risk management. The history of
probability is also discussed, tracing its origins to ancient civilizations and its
evolution through the centuries.
The project includes several examples and case studies to illustrate the
practical use of probability in various contexts.
Overall, this project highlights the importance of probability in understanding
and quantifying uncertainty in many areas of human knowledge and activity. It
shows how probability provides a powerful tool for making informed decisions,
managing risk, optimizing processes, and modeling complex systems, among
many other applications.

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References
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/the-origins-of-probability.684474
https://www.statology.org/probability-real-life-examples/
https://www.cuemath.com/data/probability/
https://www.ukessays.com/essays/mathematics/the-concept-of-probability-
mathematics-
essay.php#:~:text=probability%20%3D%20number%20of%20favourable%20eq
uipossibilies,of%20the%20space%20of%20possibilities.
https://chat.openai.com/c/4b34e394-0a23-47d9-993e-4e5f20587ea4
https://www.scribd.com/document/408841554/Written-Report-in-Probability
Class 11 Compulsory Math Textbook

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