Chapter Two
Chapter Two
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Depending on their intended use, variables may be classified as independent, dependent, moderating,
mediating, or control variables. Variables that explain other variables are called independent variables,
those that are explained by other variables are dependent variables, those that are explained by
independent variables while also explaining dependent variables are mediating variables (or intermediate
variables), and those that influence the relationship between independent and dependent variables are
called moderating variables. As an example, if we state that higher intelligence causes improved learning
among students, then intelligence is an independent variable and learning is a dependent variable. There
may be other extraneous variables that are not pertinent to explaining a given dependent variable, but may
have some impact on the dependent variable. These variables must be controlled for in a scientific study,
and are therefore called control variables.
To understand the differences between these different variable types, consider the example shown in Figure
2.2. If we believe that intelligence influences (or explains) students’ academic achievement, then a measure
of intelligence such as an IQ score is an independent variable, while a measure of academic success such
as grade point average is a dependent variable. If we believe that the effect of intelligence on academic
achievement also depends on the effort invested by the student in the learning process (i.e., between two
equally intelligent students, the student who puts is more effort achieves higher academic achievement than
one who puts in less effort), then effort becomes a moderating variable. Incidentally, one may also view
effort as an independent variable and intelligence as a moderating variable. If academic achievement is
viewed as an intermediate step to higher earning potential, then earning potential becomes the dependent
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variable for the independent variable academic achievement, and academic achievement becomes the
mediating variable in the relationship between intelligence and earning potential. Hence, variable is defined
as an independent, dependent, moderating, or mediating variable based on their nature of association with
each other. The overall network of relationships between a set of related constructs is called a nomological
network (see Figure 2.2). Therefore, a researcher requires not only being able to abstract constructs from
observations, but also being able to mentally visualize a nomological network linking these abstract
constructs.
Propositions and Hypotheses
Figure 2.2 shows how theoretical constructs such as intelligence, effort, academic achievement, and earning
potential are related to each other in a nomological network. Each of these relationships is called a
proposition. In seeking explanations to a given phenomenon or behavior, it is not adequate just to identify
key concepts and constructs underlying the target phenomenon or behavior. We must also identify and state
patterns of relationships between these constructs. Such patterns of relationships are called propositions. A
proposition is a tentative and conjectural relationship between constructs that is stated in a declarative
form. An example of a proposition is: “An increase in student’s intelligence causes an increase in their
academic achievement.” This declarative statement does not have to be true, but must be empirically
testable using data, so that we can judge whether it is true or false. Propositions are generally derived based
on logic or empirical observations.
Because propositions are associations between abstract constructs, they cannot be tested directly. Instead,
they are tested indirectly by examining the relationship between corresponding measures (variables) of
those constructs. The empirical formulation of propositions, stated as relationships between variables, is
called hypotheses (see Figure 2.1). Since IQ scores and grade point average are operational measures of
intelligence and academic achievement respectively, the above proposition can be specified in form of the
hypothesis: “An increase in students’ IQ score causes an increase in their grade point average.” Propositions
are specified in the theoretical plane, while hypotheses are specified in the empirical plane. Hence,
hypotheses are empirically testable using observed data, and may be rejected if not supported by empirical
observations. Of course, the goal of hypothesis testing is to infer whether the corresponding proposition is
valid.
Hypotheses can be strong or weak. “Students’ IQ scores are related to their academic achievement” is an
example of a weak hypothesis, since it indicates neither the directionality of the hypothesis (i.e., whether
the relationship is positive or negative), nor its causality (i.e., whether intelligence causes academic
achievement or academic achievement causes intelligence). A stronger hypothesis is “students’ IQ scores
are positively related to their academic achievement”, which indicates the directionality but not the
causality. A still better hypothesis is “students’ IQ scores have positive effects on their academic
achievement”, which specifies both the directionality and the causality (i.e., intelligence causes academic
achievement, and not the reverse). The signs in Figure 2.2 indicate the directionality of the respective
hypotheses.
Also note that scientific hypotheses should clearly specify independent and dependent variables. In the
hypothesis, “students’ IQ scores have positive effects on their academic achievement,” it is clear that
intelligence is the independent variable (the “cause”) and academic achievement is the dependent variable
(the “effect”). Further, it is also clear that this hypothesis can be evaluated as either true (if higher
intelligence leads to higher academic achievement) or false (if higher intelligence has no effect on or leads
to lower academic achievement). Statements such as “students are generally intelligent” or “all students can
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achieve academic success” are not scientific hypotheses because they do not specify independent and
dependent variables, nor do they specify a directional relationship that can be evaluated as true or false.
Theories and Models
A theory is a set of systematically interrelated constructs and propositions intended to explain and predict
a phenomenon or behavior of interest, within certain boundary conditions and assumptions. Essentially, a
theory is a systemic collection of related theoretical propositions. While propositions generally connect two
or three constructs, theories represent a system of multiple constructs and propositions. Hence, theories can
be substantially more complex and abstract and of a larger scope than propositions or hypotheses.
A good scientific theory should be well supported using observed facts and should also have practical value,
while a poorly defined theory tends to be lacking in these dimensions. Famous organizational research Kurt
Lewin once said, “Theory without practice is sterile; practice without theory is blind.” Hence, both theory
and facts (or practice) are essential for scientific research.
Theories provide explanations of social or natural phenomenon. These explanations may be good or poor.
Hence, there may be good or poor theories. Nevertheless, it is important for researchers to understand that
theory is not “truth,” there is nothing sacrosanct about any theory, and theories should not be accepted just
because they were proposed by someone. In the course of scientific progress, poorer theories are eventually
replaced by better theories with higher explanatory power. The essential challenge for researchers is to build
better and more comprehensive theories that can explain a target phenomenon better than prior theories
A model is a representation of all or part of a system that is constructed to study that system (e.g., how the
system works or what triggers the system). While a theory tries to explain a phenomenon, a model tries to
represent a phenomenon. Models are often used by decision makers to make important decisions based on
a given set of inputs. For instance, marketing managers may use models to decide how much money to
spend on advertising for different product lines based on parameters such as prior year’s advertising
expenses, sales, market growth, and competing products. Likewise, weather forecasters can use models to
predict future weather patterns based on parameters such as wind speeds, wind direction, temperature, and
humidity. While these models are useful, they may not necessarily explain advertising expenditure or
weather forecasts. Models may be of different kinds, such as mathematical models, network models, and
path models. Models can also be descriptive, predictive, or normative. Descriptive models are frequently
used for representing complex systems, for visualizing variables and relationships in such systems. An
advertising expenditure model may be a descriptive model. Predictive models (e.g., a regression model)
allow forecast of future events. Weather forecasting models are predictive models. Normative models are
used to guide our activities along commonly accepted norms or practices. Models may also be static if it
represents the state of a system at one point in time, or dynamic, if it represents a system’s evolution over
time.
Deductive and Inductive Reasoning
They may involve in the process of theory or model development. Deductive reasoning is the process of
drawing conclusions about a phenomenon or behavior based on theoretical or logical reasons and an initial
set of premises. As an example, if a certain bank enforces a strict code of ethics for its employees (Premise
1) and Jamie is an employee at that bank (Premise 2), then Jamie can be trusted to follow ethical practices
(Conclusion). In deduction, the conclusions must be true if the initial premises and reasons are correct.
In contrast, inductive reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions based on facts or observed evidence.
For instance, if a firm spent a lot of money on a promotional campaign (Observation 1), but the sales did
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not increase (Observation 2), then possibly the promotion campaign was poorly executed (Conclusion).
However, there may be rival explanations for poor sales, such as economic recession or the emergence of
a competing product or brand or perhaps a supply chain problem. Inductive conclusions are therefore only
a hypothesis, and may be disproven.
Deductive conclusions generally tend to be stronger than inductive conclusions, but a deductive conclusion
based on an incorrect premise is also incorrect. However, inductive and deductive reasoning go hand in
hand in theory and model building. Induction occurs when we observe a fact and ask, “Why is this
happening?” In answering this question, we advance one or more tentative explanations (hypotheses). We
then use deduction to narrow down the tentative explanations to the most plausible explanation based on
logic and reasonable premises (based on our understanding of the phenomenon under study). Therefore,
researchers must be able to move back and forth between inductive and deductive reasoning if they are to
post extensions or modifications to a given model or theory, or built better ones, which are the essence of
scientific research.
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