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Syllabus 2022
Subject F107 –
Banking Fellowship Principles
i. Briefly define the three main components of credit risk measurement for regulatory capital
purposes: PD, LGD and EAD.
Probability of Default
• The PD estimate aims to measure the likelihood of default over a 12-month (one year)
time horizon.
• The PD estimate is required to be a Through-The-Cycle (TTC) estimate, which means
that it is supposed to be reflective of the default risk over the economic cycle.
• This is as opposed to a Point-In-Time (PIT) estimate, which is reflective of the current
position in the economic cycle.
Exposure At Default
• The EAD estimate aims to measure the additional drawdown in balance from the current
point in time to the point of default.
• This is more important for loans or facilities where the borrower is able to draw down
additional funds before being flagged as a default by the bank. This includes Credit
Cards, Revolving Products, and some Corporate loans.
• For products such as mortgages and other amortising products, the borrower is generally
not able to draw down additional funds once the loan is granted.
• EADs are commonly floored at the current balance of a facility, such that the EAD for
regulatory capital purposes cannot be less than the current drawn amount.
[Maximum 7]
ii. Describe the three main approaches for calculating credit risk capital under Basel II
Pillar 1 and the suggested requirements for using the more complex approaches.
Standardised Approach
• The SA is a simple approach, involving external ratings, asset classes, and risk weights.
• The nominal amount of assets is weighted according to a risk weight to obtain risk-
weighted assets (RWA). This risk weight is specified in the SA and depends on the
external rating and asset class of the client. The RWA can then be used to calculate
capital.
• The starting point for capital required against assets is 8% of RWA.
• For example:
• A R100 million non-SME corporate asset with a rating between AAA and AA- will
have a 20% risk weight.
• The RWA would be R20 million (R100 million × 20%).
• This means the bank will have to hold R1,6 million of capital (RWA x 8%).
• Bank, sovereign, and corporate assets are assigned risk weights using a matrix that maps
external ratings to a risk weight. If an entity is unrated, a flat risk weight is assigned.
• Flat risk weights are also assigned for other asset classes (e.g. retail). There are some
asset classes that are given specific guidelines; for example, certain real estate assets are
assigned risk weights depending on their loan-to-value (LTV) ratio value.
IRB Requirements
• To use the IRB, a bank must:
• Define a risk grading methodology based on an assessment horizon reflected in the
bank’s rating philosophy (shorter or longer term).
[Maximum 12]
[Total 19]
QUESTION 2
Describe some of the common tests a bank would perform to assess a capital PD model
performance built on internal data.
Gini statistic
• The Gini measures the strength of the model’s ability to distinguish between “good” and
“bad” risks.
• A model with a low Gini may not be able to adequately differentiate between the
riskiness of loans, and hence may assign inaccurate model estimates to these loans.
• A Gini of between 60% and 70% is usually considered strong for a retail portfolio. Where
this number is lower than 50%, the model is exposed to the risk of not adequately
discriminating between the riskiness of two loans.
Chi-Square (Hosmer-Lemeshow)
• This goodness of fit test that compares actual vs. expected results.
• Observations are sorted in increasing order of their estimated probability of default.
• The observations are then divided into N groups of the same size based on the percentiles
of their estimated probabilities.
• The observed and expected number of defaults is then tabulated for each group.
• The discrepancies between the observed and expected number of observations in these
groups are summarised by the Pearson chi-square statistic, which is then compared to a
chi-square distribution with N – 2 degrees of freedom.
• A high p-value indicates a model with a good fit.
Benchmarking
• Benchmarking of internal estimates against external sources is another useful quantitative
review, and can add objectivity to the model estimation process.
• Benchmarking can be performed at a portfolio level, or at more granular segments.
• It is however important to understand the differences between the underlying businesses
being compared using benchmarking.
• One organisation may have very different underwriting and credit risk management
processes, resulting in different model estimates. A comparison in this instance, without
first understanding the areas of difference, could lead to incorrect estimates.
Population Stability
• It measures how much the population has changed over time, and can be applied at a
group level, by bucketing/ grouping variables.
• Alternatively, the PSI can be applied at an individual variable level.
• As a rule of thumb, a PSI<0.1 indicates minimal change in the population. 0.1 to 0.2
indicates changes that might warrant further investigation, and a PSI >0.2 indicates a
significant change in the population.
• The PSI does not tell the bank anything about the relationships between the variables and
the outcome, but merely that the distribution of the population has changed. If a high PSI
is detected, it may be that the scorecard is performing well but the population has changed
due to new origination strategies or changes in economic conditions.
• As such, the PSI should not be viewed in isolation, and the reasons for population
changes should be investigated.
Other comments
• Out of time and out of sample testing is valuable to ensure the model is performing as
expected and is not overfit to the data used to build the model.
• The entire validation process should make apparent changes in drivers, trends, and
correlations.
[Maximum 10]
QUESTION 3
A bank is analysing the performance of its retail product offerings. The profitability of the
current account banking product is shown below.
Average Debit Balances for the year R775 000 000 R830 000 000
Average Credit Balances for the year R1 950 000 000 R2 200 000 000
Average Client Limits for the year R1 666 000 000 R2 220 000 000
i. Define and calculate the following measures for this product: net interest margin, impairment
charge (bad debt charge) percentage, profit before tax and return on capital (ROC) for each
financial year.
[10]
ii. Briefly describe the information that one could gain from these metrics and discuss the year-
on-year movements.
• The net interest margin and allows one to see if there is any contraction / increase in this
ratio which will talk to changes in either the funding costs / interest rate pricing of the
book.
• The impairment charge (bad debt charge) percentage shows the change in bad debts for
the year, allowing the bank to understand how the credit risk of the portfolio has changed.
• Profit is a key metric in performance management of the book and understanding yearly
financials.
• Return on capital allows one to view the return of this book, compared to the capital
employed, relative to other books across the bank and allows one to give a risk adjusted
comparison of the book’s profitability.
The overall profitability of the bank has decreased, both in absolute terms and looking at the
ROC measure. There could be many reasons why this has happened, some of the reasons are
discussed below.
The cost of funding increased from 6.2% to 6.9% which could be as a result of:
• Altering the funding strategy (or model) to target more stable long term funding.
• Competition for deposits (especially retail deposits) may have increased, forcing the bank
to offer more competitive rates across several product ranges.
• There may be general pressure (increases) on the liquidity premium and treasury running
costs which have been passed onto the business / product line.
• It is possible that the underlying FTP rates for this product specifically were amended (as
a result of modelling updates / enhancements).
• In order to qualify for use of the standardised approach, a bank must satisfy its regulator
that, at a minimum:
• Market risk is defined as the risk of loss from movements in prices in the financial
markets.
• Market risk is primarily regarded for components in the trading book.
• Some banking assets, such as loans and deposits, are regarded as “held until maturity”
and are held in the banking book.
• Other assets, such as securities and derivatives, may be regarded as “held for sale” in
what is known as the trading book.