2/11/25, 6:10 PM 2 - Forecasting (2024): MAN4504: Operation and Supply Chain Management

2 - Forecasting (2024)
Due No due date
Points 44
Questions 44
Time Limit None
Allowed Attempts Unlimited

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Submitted Feb 8 at 1:59pm

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Question 1
1 / 1 pts
Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an of .3, what would the forecast for the
next period be using simple exponential smoothing?
45.5
57.1
Correct!
58.9

(61-58)*(0.3) = (3)*(0.3) = 0.9

58 + 0.9 = 58.9

61.0
65.5
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UnansweredQuestion 2
0 / 1 pts

Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last four
weeks. Forecast demand for period 5 using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4, and an initial
forecast of 28.0 for period 1.

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Period Demand
1 24
2 23
3 26
4 36
5 ?
Correct Answer
29.65
26.40
25.43
28.05
30.10
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UnansweredQuestion 3
0 / 1 pts
Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to
a naive forecast?
cannot be determined
0.5
1 divided by the number of periods
0
Correct Answer
1.0

Naive Forecast: Assumes demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent period

For example, If January sales were 68 then February will be 68.

Exponential Smoothing Forecast: New Forecast = Last period’s forecast + alpha (Last period’s actual
demand – Last period’s forecast)

For example, If January sales were 68 and were predicted to be 70. February Forecast= 70 + 1(68-70)=
68

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UnansweredQuestion 4
0 / 1 pts

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to forecast
errors?

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0.80
Correct Answer
0.10
0.20
0.40
Cannot be determined

Lower alpha means that the exponential smoothing will response more slowly to forecasting errors.
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UnansweredQuestion 5
0 / 1 pts

Passenger miles flown (in thousands) on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub,
are shown for the past 5 weeks:

Period Demand
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18

Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute the
forecast for miles flown in week 5 to the nearest 100-miles. Use α = .2.

Correct Answer
19.0
17.0
18.1
18.7
None of these.
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UnansweredQuestion 6
0 / 1 pts

Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last six weeks.
Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3, and an initial forecast of 45.0 for
period 1.

Period Demand
1 45

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2 43
3 47
4 49
5 45
6 41

Calculate the MAPE for this forecast (round to the nearest tenth).
Correct Answer
5.5
2.5
8.6
0.3
None of these

Alpha 0.3

Forecasts and Error

Data
Analysis

Abs Pct
Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared
Err

1 45 45 0 0 0 00.00%

2 43 45 -2 2 4 04.65%

3 47 44.40 2.60 2.60 6.76 05.53%

4 49 45.18 3.82 3.82 14.59 07.80%

5 45 46.33 -1.33 1.33 1.76 02.95%

6 41 45.93 -4.93 4.93 24.29 12.02%

Total -1.83 14.67 51.40 32.95%

Average -0.31 2.45 8.57 05.49%

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Bias MAD MSE MAPE

SE 3.58

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UnansweredQuestion 7
0 / 1 pts

Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last six weeks.
Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4, and an initial forecast of 28.0 for
period 1

Period Demand
1 24
2 23
3 26
4 36
5 26
6 30

Calculate the MAD for this forecast.

Correct Answer
4.07
28.19
1.81
10.58
None of these.

Answer: Absolute
Demand Forecast Error
Period Error

1 24 28.00 -4 4

2 23 26.40 -3.40 3.40

3 26 25.04 0.96 0.96

4 36 25.42 10.58 10.58

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5 26 29.65 -3.65 3.65

6 30 28.19 1.81 1.81

Total

Average 4.0667

Bias MAD

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UnansweredQuestion 8
0 / 1 pts

Gendry makes swords for a for the local land barons. He is trying to determine whether to use an alpha
of .2 or .5 for his forecasting models. The table below shows the volume of swords he has sold
throughout the past 6 months, along with the first month’s predicted demand. Which alpha is better and
what does the MSE tell us is the average error of the forecast?

Predicted Sword
Months Swords Sold
Demand
1 60 63
2 78
3 66
4 83
5 81
6 58
Correct Answer
.2, error of most nearly 146 units squared on average
.5, error of most nearly 13 units on average
.2, error of most nearly 146 units on average
.5, error of most nearly 160 units squared on average
None of these because MSE is a measure of percent error

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UnansweredQuestion 9
0 / 1 pts

Gendry makes swords for a for the local land barons. He is trying an alpha of .2 for his exponential
forecasting models. The table below shows the volume of swords he has sold throughout the past 4
months, along with the first month’s predicted demand. What is the MSE tell us is the average error of
the forecast?

Predicted Sword
Month Swords Sold
Demand
1 60 63
2 78
3 80
4 84
176 units on average
Correct Answer
176 units squared on average
12 units on average
12 units squared on average
None of the above because MSE is a measure of percent error

MSE=

MSE=[(-3) +(15.6) +(14.48) +(15.584) ]/4=[9+243.36+209.6704+242.8611]/4=176.2

Predicted swords sold= Forecast+alpha(actual-forecast)

Equation for predicted

Month Swords Sold Predicted Swords Sold
swords
1 60 63

2 78 62.4 63+.2(60-63)

3 80 65.52 62.4+.2(78-62.4)
4 84 68.416 65.52+.2(80-65.52)

Note: it may be best to do this one in excel with a column for error (actual-forecast) and squared error.
You can sum the squared errors and divide by n.

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UnansweredQuestion 10
0 / 1 pts
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The forecasted and actual demand for Johnny’s Surf Shack is as follows:

Month Forecasted Demand Actual Demand

January 85 100
February 100 90
March 50 80
April 50 60
May 110 100
June 80 80
July 110 105
August 100 75

What is the tracking signal at the end of August?

Correct Answer
.3809
.7619
.9255
1.342
None of these.

Tracking Signal = Cumulative error / MAD

Total Actual Demand = 690

Total Forecasted Demand = 685

MAD = (15 + 10 + 30 + 10 + 10 + 5 + 25) / 8

= 105 / 8

= 13.125

Tracking Signal = (690 – 685) / 13.125 = .3809

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UnansweredQuestion 11
0 / 1 pts

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand
data and using the weights: 4, 3, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

37 36 40 42 47 43

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43.1
43.9
44.0
Correct Answer
44.1
44.5

Answer: 2x42 + 3x47 + 4x43 = 84+141+172 = 397; 397/9 = 44.1

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UnansweredQuestion 12
0 / 1 pts

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are in the table below. A three-period moving average
and a four-period moving average are provided. Compute MAD for each forecast and then forecast week
8 with the more accurate method (either the three or four week moving average. What is your forecast?

Week Sales (cases)

1 17
2 21
3 27
4 31
5 19
6 17
7 21
Correct Answer
22
19
20
21
23

Week Sales (cases) 3MA |error| 4MA |error|

1 17

2 21

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3 27

4 31 21.7 9.3

5 19 26.3 7.3 24.0 5.0

6 17 25.7 8.7 24.5 7.5

7 21 22.3 1.3 23.5 2.5

8 19.0 22.0

The four-week moving average is more accurate. The forecast with the 4-moving average is 22.0.
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UnansweredQuestion 13
0 / 1 pts

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand
data and using the weights: 4, 3, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April

47 46 50 46 42 51
43.9
44.1
45.8
Correct Answer
46.9
47.9

Answer: 2x46 + 3x42 + 4x51 = =422; 422/9 = 46.9

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UnansweredQuestion 14
0 / 1 pts
John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It
assigns a weight of 5 to the previous month's demand, 3 to demand two months ago, and 1 to demand
three months ago. If sales amounted to 2000 pancakes in May, 2600 pancakes in June, and 3000
pancakes in July, what should be the forecast for August?
1622
2067

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2311
2400
Correct Answer
2756

WMA = (5)(3,000)+(3)(2,600)+(1)(2,000) = 24,800

24,800/9 = 2,755.55
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UnansweredQuestion 15
0 / 1 pts
John's Sub Shop uses a weighted moving average method to forecast bread sales and order sub rolls
from a local bakery. It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous week’s demand, 3 to demand two weeks
ago, and 1 to demand three weeks ago. If sales amounted to 2000 subs in during the first week of June,
2200 subs the second week of June, and 3000 subs the third week of June, what is John’s forecast for
the fourth week of June (rounded to the nearest whole number)?
2178
2378
2511
Correct Answer
2622
None of the Above

WMA = (5)(3,000)+(3)(2,200)+(1)(2,000) = 23,600

23,600/9 = 2,622.22

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UnansweredQuestion 16
0 / 1 pts

Listed below are the actual sales of Crocs for the months of January through May. Find the absolute
difference between the 2-month moving average and the 3-month weighted moving average for the
month of April, if the weight for last month is 3, two months ago is 2, and three months ago is 1.

Month Actual Crocs Sales

January 14
February 13
March 16
April 15
May 12
Correct Answer
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0.2
0.3
0.5
No Difference
None of the Above

Moving average for April: (13+16)/2 = 14.5

Weighted moving average for April: ((3*16)+(2*13)+(1*14))/(3+2+1) =

(48+26+14)/6 = 14.667

Absolute difference: (14.667-14.5)= .167 =.2

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UnansweredQuestion 17
0 / 1 pts

The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts (for the
same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. Calculate MAPE for these four weeks.

Sales Forecast Error Error2 Pct. Error

80 60 20 400 .25

100 80 20 400 .20

105 95 10 100 .095

90 75 15 225 .167

Correct Answer
17.8%
281.25
16.25
16.25%

Answer: MAD = 65/4 = 16.25; MSE = 1125/4 = 281.25; MAPE = 0.712/4 = .178 or 17.8%

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UnansweredQuestion 18
0 / 1 pts

Bob makes burgers. The amount of burgers Bob has sold is shown in the table below. What is the
forecast for July based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and

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using the weights: 5, 3, 1 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June

42 39 61 55 68 75

56.67
59.33
66.00
68.22
Correct Answer
70.44

(75(5)+68(3)+55) / 9 = 70.44

(75(5)+68(3)+55) / 9 = 70.44
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Question 19
0 / 1 pts
The last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12
units. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is
You Answered
-10
2
Correct Answer
3.5
9
10.5

MAD=

MAD=[ |8-5|+|10-6|+|15-11|+|9-12|]/4=3.5

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UnansweredQuestion 20
0 / 1 pts

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following
table. Even though last years sales were up the firm has decided to stick with a two year moving average
for its forecast of annual demand. However, it would like to make a seasonal adjustment for year for and
forecast each of the quarter for the upcoming year. What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for quart 3
of year 4 (to the nearest unit)?

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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Quarter 1 1710 1820 1830
Quarter 2 960 910 1090
Quarter 3 2720 2840 2900
Quarter 4 2430 2200 2590
Correct Answer
2852
2023
8410
2953
None of these answers are within 0.01 of the correct answer

1710 1820 1830 1786.666667 0.8933 0.893333333

960 910 1090 986.6666667 0.4933 0.493333333

2720 2840 2900 2820 1.41 1.41 2851.725

2430 2200 2590 2406.666667 1.2033 1.203333333

7770 8410 2000

8090

1710 1820 1830 1786.666667 0.8933 0.893333333

960 910 1090 986.6666667 0.4933 0.493333333

2720 2840 2900 2820 1.41 1.41 2851.725

2430 2200 2590 2406.666667 1.2033 1.203333333

7770 8410 2000

8090

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UnansweredQuestion 21
0 / 1 pts

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation?

Actual Forecast Error |Error|

10 12
8 10
10 8
4 6
9 8
-0.2
Correct Answer
1.8
-1.0
0.0
1.2

MAD=

MAD=[|10-12|+|8-10|+|10-8|+|4-6|+|9-8|]/5=1.8

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UnansweredQuestion 22
0 / 1 pts

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation?

Actual Forecast
10 11
6 12
10 7
5 6
9 8
-1.0
-0.2
Correct Answer

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2.4
0.0
1.2

MAD=

MAD=[|10-11|+|6-12|+|10-7|+|5-6|+|9-8]|/5=2.4
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Question 23
0 / 1 pts

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is MAD associated
with this forecast?

Actual Forecast
10 11
6 12
10 9
5 6
9 8
-0.2
Correct Answer
2.0
You Answered
-1.0
1.2
None of these.

MAD=

MAD=[|10-11|+|6-12|+|10-9|+|5-6|+|9-8]|/5=2

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UnansweredQuestion 24
0 / 1 pts

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local
department store. Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast. Compare the manager's forecast
against a naive forecast. By how many units on average does manager’s forecast differ from a naïve
forecast?

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Manager's
Month Unit Sales
Forecast

January 52

February 61

March 73

April 79

May 66

June 51

July 47 50

August 44 55

September 30 52

October 55 42

November 74 60

December 125 75

Correct Answer
0.5 better
0.9 better
0.7 worse
0.9 worse
None of these

Abs. Abs.
Month Actual Manager's Naive
Error Error

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January 52

February 61

March 73

April 79

May 66

June 51

July 47 50 3 51 4

August 44 55 11 47 3

September 30 52 22 44 14

October 55 42 13 30 25

November 74 60 14 55 19

December 125 75 50 74 51

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UnansweredQuestion 25
0 / 1 pts

The forecasted and actual demand for Johnny’s Surf Shack is as follows:

Month Actual Demand Forecasted Demand

January 100 110

February 140 100

March 90 95

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April 90 100

May 110 120

Find the MAD.

20
10
Correct Answer
15
25
None of these

(|100-110| + |140-100| + |90-95| + |90-100| + |110+120|) / 5

(10 + 40 + 5 +10 + 10) / 5

75 / 5

15
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Question 26
0 / 1 pts

A two period-weighted moving average is being evaluated using the past five months of data. Weights
of 0.65 and 0.35 are to be used on the most recent month and the preceding month, respectively. What
is MAPE associated with this forecast (round to the nearest 0.1%)?

Demand Forecast
Month 1 121
Month 2 126
Month 3 129
Month 4 136
Month 5 141
Correct Answer
5.0%
You Answered
6.8%

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

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Abs Pct
Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared
Err

Period 1 121 0.35

Period 2 126 0.65

Period 3 129 124.25 4.75 4.75 22.5625 03.68%

Period 4 136 127.95 8.05 8.05 64.8025 05.92%

Period 5 141 133.55 7.45 7.45 55.5025 05.28%

Total 20.25 20.25 142.8675 14.88%

Average 6.75 6.75 47.6225 04.96%

Bias MAD MSE MAPE

SE 11.95271936

Next
139.25
period

5.4%
11.95%
None of the other answers are within 0.1 of the correct answer.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

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Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err

Period 1 121 0.35

Period 2 126 0.65

Period 3 129 124.25 4.75 4.75 22.5625 03.68%

Period 4 136 127.95 8.05 8.05 64.8025 05.92%

Period 5 141 133.55 7.45 7.45 55.5025 05.28%

Total 20.25 20.25 142.8675 14.88%

Average 6.75 6.75 47.6225 04.96%

Bias MAD MSE MAPE

SE 11.95271936

Next period 139.25

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UnansweredQuestion 27
0 / 1 pts
Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D
typically utilize a
Correct Answer
long-range time horizon
short-range time horizon
medium-range time horizon
naive method, because there is no data history
all of the above

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 4

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UnansweredQuestion 28
0 / 1 pts
The two general approaches to forecasting are
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Correct Answer
qualitative and quantitative
mathematical and statistical
judgmental and qualitative
historical and associative
judgmental and associative

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 14

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UnansweredQuestion 29
0 / 1 pts
Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and
respondents?
Correct Answer
the Delphi method
executive opinions
sales force composites
consumer surveys
time series analysis

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 22

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UnansweredQuestion 30
0 / 1 pts
A six-month moving average forecast is better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand
follows a downward trend
has been changing due to recent promotional efforts
Correct Answer
is rather stable
follows a seasonal pattern that repeats itself twice a year
follows an upward trend

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 35.

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UnansweredQuestion 31
0 / 1 pts
Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?
has minimal data storage requirements
smoothes random variations in the data
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easily altered weighting scheme

Correct Answer
weights each historical value equally
None of the above; they are all characteristics of exponential smoothing.

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 43

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Question 32
0 / 1 pts
Which term best describes the fact that each year during mid-to-late December, Walt Disney World
experiences increased attendance?
You Answered
Trend
Correct Answer
Season
Cycle
Random variation

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 31

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UnansweredQuestion 33
0 / 1 pts
If alpha is set high, it places the most weight on the
The earliest time period.
Correct Answer
The most recent time period.
The average of the earliest and the most recent time periods.
The second most recent time period.

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 48

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UnansweredQuestion 34
0 / 1 pts
Setting alpha to 1 in exponential smoothing
Will place the most weight on the earliest included time period.
Will always result in an accurate forecast.
Correct Answer
Is similar to utilizing the naïve approach.
Means that the forecast won’t adjust the predicted forecast from the error from the previous observed time period.

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Naive Forecast: Assumes demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent period

For example, If January sales were 68 then February will be 68.

Exponential Smoothing Forecast: New Forecast = Last period’s forecast + alpha(Last period’s actual
demand – Last period’s forecast)

For example, If January sales were 68 and were predicted to be 70. February Forecast= 70 + 1(68-70)=
68
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UnansweredQuestion 35
0 / 1 pts
Which of the following is not a qualitative forecasting technique?
Market survey
Jury of executive opinion
Delphi method
Sales force composite
Correct Answer
All of the above are qualitative forecasting techniques.

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 17

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UnansweredQuestion 36
0 / 1 pts
A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n)
moving average forecast
qualitative forecast
naive forecast
Correct Answer
exponentially smoothed forecast
weighted moving average forecast

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 44

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UnansweredQuestion 37
0 / 1 pts
When it comes to choosing a forecasting system, _____.
Choose the one that is the simplest
Choose the one with the most processing capability
Correct Answer

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Choose the one that has the smallest error rate

Choose the one that takes up the least amount of storage

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 51

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UnansweredQuestion 38
0 / 1 pts

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

cycles
trend
random variations
seasonality
Correct Answer
They may exhibit all of these.

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 27

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UnansweredQuestion 39
0 / 1 pts
Which of the following is true regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend
(FIT) model?
One constant smoothes the regression intercept, whereas the other smoothes the regression slope.
One constant is positive, while the other is negative.
Alpha plus Beta must equal 1.
Alpha is always smaller than beta.
Correct Answer
Their values are determined independently.

See PowerPoint Chapter 4 slide 66

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Question 40
0 / 1 pts
What effect would an alpha of 0.9 and 0.1 have on changes in demand data when using exponential
smoothing?
Correct Answer
An alpha of 0.9 is more responsive to recent changes, while an alpha of 0.1 is less responsive to recent changes..
An alpha of 0.1 is more responsive to recent changes, while an alpha of 0.9 is less responsive to recent changes.
An alpha has no effect on exponential smoothing.

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You Answered
An alpha of 0.1 has a lower smoothing effect, while an alpha of 0.9 has a higher smoothing effect.
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UnansweredQuestion 41
0 / 1 pts

A restaurant has tracked the number of meals served at lunch over the last four weeks. The data shows
little in terms of trends, but does display substantial variation by day of the week. Use the following
information to determine the seasonal index for Fridays’ at this restaurant.

Week

Day 1 2 3 4

Sunday 40 35 39 43

Monday 54 55 51 59

Tuesday 61 60 65 64

Wednesday 72 77 78 69

Thursday 89 80 81 79

Friday 91 90 99 95

Saturday 80 82 81 83

Correct Answer
1.344
1.169
1.18
0.896
None of these

Day Avg. Index

per (Avg.
Day per
day/total
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daily
average)

Sunday 39.25 0.5627

Monday 54.75 0.7855

Tuesday 62.5 0.8963

Wednesday 74 1.0618

Thursday 82.25 1.1800

Friday 93.75 1.3444

Saturday 81.5 1.1692

Total Avg.
69.7143
per Day=

Index
(Avg.
Avg.
per
Day per
day/total
Day
daily
average)

Sunday 39.25 0.5627

Monday 54.75 0.7855

Tuesday 62.5 0.8963

Wednesday 74 1.0618

Thursday 82.25 1.1800

Friday 93.75 1.3444

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Saturday 81.5 1.1692

Total Avg.
69.7143
per Day=

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UnansweredQuestion 42
0 / 1 pts

Bendry makes shields for the local land barons. He is trying an alpha of .3 and a beta of .2 for his FIT
models. He has an initial forecast of 63 and an initial trend for 5 shields. The table below shows the
volume of shields he has sold throughout the past 4 months, along with the first month’s predicted
demand and trend. What is the forecast including trend for period 4 (rounded to the nearest whole
number)?

Alpha 0.3

Beta 0.2

Smoothed Forecast
Smoothed
Period Demand Forecast, Including
Trend, Tt
Ft Trend, FITt

Period 1 60 63 5 68

Period 2 78

Period 3 80

Period 4 84 ?

78 units
80 units
Correct Answer
83 units
89 units
None of the answers are within 1 unit

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Alpha 0.3

Beta 0.2

Smoothed Forecast, Smoothed Trend, Forecast Including Trend,

Period Demand
Ft Tt FITt

Period 1 60 63 5 68

Period 2 78 65.6 4.28 69.88

Period 3 80 72.316 5.0108 77.3268

Period 4 84 78.12876 5.251388 83.380148

FITt=Ft+Tt. Ft= . Tt =
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UnansweredQuestion 43
0 / 1 pts

From Summer 2024

Marty has purchased and renovated a casino in the Ozark Mountains. He believes annual sales can be
forecast with a simply three-year moving average. However, he also believes there is strong seasonality.
Use a 3-year MA to determine next years annual forecast and adjust it for seasonality. What is the
seasonally adjust forecast for next Spring to the nearest whole number?

2 years ago Last Year This Year

Winter 120 121 132
Spring 125 132 133
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Summer 298 287 314

Autum 210 232 230
You Answered

130 (with margin: 0.5)

Originally I coded the answer to the lower solution. I changed the numbers after that but did not change
the original solution in Canvas. We will correct this but it has to be done manually so you might not see
the correction for a day or even a few depending on how quickly we can fix it but it will happen. The top
solution is correct.

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Question 44
0 / 1 pts

From Summer 2024

For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x. The negative sign on the slope of
the equation:

is a mathematical impossibility.
is an indication that the forecast is biased, with forecast values lower than actual values.
Correct Answer
is an indication that product demand is declining.
You Answered
implies that the cumulative error will be negative.

Negative slope simply means a decreasing trend with time.

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