[ WEATHER PREDICTION]

PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by
[ ANANYA S]
USN NO : [22BCAR0042]

in partial fulfillment for the award of

the degree of

BACHELOR OF COMPUTER
APPLICATIONS WITH
SPECIALIZATION
GENERAL

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE & IT

JAIN KNOWLEDGE
CAMPUS
JAYANAGAR 9th BLOCK
BANGALORE-560069

FEB - 2025

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SLNO CONTENTS PAGE NO

2 Problem Statement 3
3 Scope 4
4 Objectives 4
5 Requirements: 4
Functional Requirements 4-5
Sample Dataset 5
6 Module-wise Description 5

Introduction

Weather prediction is a crucial application of data science and meteorology that helps
individuals, businesses, and governments prepare for various weather conditions. This project
aims to develop a data-driven weather forecasting system using historical weather data and
machine learning techniques. The system will provide insights into temperature trends,
precipitation, and extreme weather conditions.

2. Problem Statement

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Weather forecasting is essential for agriculture, transportation, disaster management, and
daily planning. Sudden weather changes, such as extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, or
strong winds, can cause disruptions and economic losses. However, accurately predicting
weather conditions remains a challenge due to the unpredictable nature of atmospheric
changes.

This project aims to analyze historical weather data to identify trends and develop reliable
weather predictions. The first step involves preparing the data by converting dates into the
correct format and handling missing or incorrect values to ensure accuracy. Once the data is
cleaned, we will analyze weather trends by examining temperature variations over time,
rainfall patterns, and wind speed fluctuations. Additionally, we will assess the frequency of
different weather conditions, such as sunny, cloudy, or rainy days.

To enhance forecasting accuracy, statistical time series models such as ARIMA will be used
to predict future temperature and precipitation levels. Machine learning techniques like
Random Forest will also be applied to improve prediction performance. The accuracy of
these models will be evaluated by comparing predicted values with actual weather conditions,
identifying trends, and detecting anomalies.

The final results will be presented through interactive visual dashboards, allowing users to
easily interpret weather forecasts and trends. By leveraging data-driven insights, this project
aims to improve weather prediction accuracy, enabling better planning and preparedness for
future weather conditions.

3. Scope

The scope of this project is extensive and aims to develop a comprehensive weather
prediction system using advanced data analytics techniques. The project will focus on
collecting historical weather data from reliable sources and preprocessing it to ensure data
consistency and accuracy. The processed data will be analyzed using various statistical and
visualization techniques to identify trends and patterns in temperature, humidity, wind speed,
and precipitation.

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4. Objectives:

 Collect and preprocess historical weather data to ensure accuracy and completeness.

 Analyze trends and patterns using data visualization techniques such as bar charts, line
graphs, and heatmaps.

 Develop forecasting models using ARIMA and Linear Regression for short-term and
long-term weather predictions.

 Detect extreme weather conditions using machine learning classification models to

 Build an interactive Shiny Dashboard that presents real-time weather insights and
predictions for better decision-making.

5. Requirements

4.1 Functional Requirements

1. Operating System

 Windows 10/11 (64-bit)

2. Development Environment

 R– Main programming language

 RStudio – For writing and running R scripts

Microsoft Excel

 Purpose:

o Viewing and preprocessing weather datasets (CSV files).

o Cleaning and formatting data before importing into R.

2. GitHub for Version Control

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 Purpose:

o Storing and managing R scripts, datasets, and project files.

o Tracking code changes and collaborating with others.

6. Sample Dataset

The dataset includes historical weather data from 2019 to 2022, collected from
meteorological sources. The following table provides a sample representation of the dataset:

Date Temperature (C) Humidity (%) Wind Speed (km/h) Rainfall (mm)

2019-06-15 30.2 55 12 1.5

2020-07-22 29.8 60 14 3.2

2021-08-10 31.1 58 18 0.0

2022-09-05 28.5 65 10 4.7

8. Module-wise Description

Package Installation & Loading

 ggplot2: Helps create different types of graphs to understand trends and patterns in the
data.

 dplyr is a powerful package in R used for data manipulation and transformation. It

 forecast: Helps predict future weather patterns based on past data.

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tseries: Used for statistical tests and analyzing time-based data.

Data Preprocessing

Before we can analyze weather data, we need to make sure it is in the correct format, doesn’t
have errors or missing values, and is easy to work with. This process is called data
preprocessing or data cleaning.

What steps are involved?

1. Loading the Dataset

o The weather data is stored in a CSV file (a table-like format similar to an Excel sheet).

o We need to import this file into R so that we can work with it.

2. Converting the Date Column

o Often, the Date column in the dataset is stored as plain text instead of an actual date.

o We need to convert it into a proper date format so we can analyze weather patterns over
time.

o For example, if the date is stored as "21-02-2024" (text), we convert it into an actual date
format so that we can sort and filter the data correctly

3. Checking for Missing Values

o Sometimes, datasets have missing values (for example, a missing temperature reading for
a certain day).

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o Missing values can cause errors in our analysis, so we check how many are missing in
each column.

o If values are missing, we decide whether to:

 Remove the rows with missing data.

 Fill in the gaps using estimates (for example, replacing a missing temperature with the
average temperature).

4. Examining the Dataset Structure

o This step helps us understand what kind of data we have.

o For example:

 Temperature should be stored as a number (so we can perform calculations).

 Dates should be stored as date format (so we can analyze trends over time).

 Weather conditions (like "Sunny" or "Rainy") should be stored as categories.

Data Visualization

Temperature Trends Over Time

o This graph shows how temperature changes over time.

Two lines are used:

 One line shows the maximum temperature recorded each day.

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 Another line shows the minimum temperature recorded each day.

o This helps us understand:

 If temperatures are increasing or decreasing over time.

 How much the temperature varies between day and night.

Precipitation (Rainfall) Trends

o This graph shows how much rain fell each day.

o If we see a sudden spike in the graph, it means there was heavy rainfall on that day.

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This helps us:

 Identify wet and dry seasons.

 Understand if rainfall is increasing or decreasing over time.

 Detect unusual weather patterns (like droughts or floods).

Wind Speed Over Time

o This graph tracks how fast the wind was blowing each day.

o Wind speed is important because strong winds can indicate storms.

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o If we see sharp spikes in the graph, it might mean there was a storm or extreme weather
event.

Weather Condition Distribution

o This is a bar chart that shows how often different weather conditions (like Sunny, Rainy,
Cloudy) occurred in the dataset.

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o Each bar represents a different type of weather, and the height of the bar tells us how
often that type of weather was recorded.

o This helps us:

 Understand the most common weather conditions.

 See if there were more rainy days or sunny days.

 Identify any unusual weather patterns.

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