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Form Lab 25 Goal Strategy

Form Lab provides game notes that analyze team trends and highlight betting opportunities, such as over/under 2.5 goals markets. The over/under 2.5 goals bet involves predicting whether there will be over 2 total goals or under 3 total goals. Last season, Form Lab's game notes beat league averages for predicting over/under 2.5 goals and resulted in profitable bets. Focusing bets in the direction of historical league biases, such as betting under 2.5 goals for Serie A games, can further increase profits.

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Genti Madhi
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815 views

Form Lab 25 Goal Strategy

Form Lab provides game notes that analyze team trends and highlight betting opportunities, such as over/under 2.5 goals markets. The over/under 2.5 goals bet involves predicting whether there will be over 2 total goals or under 3 total goals. Last season, Form Lab's game notes beat league averages for predicting over/under 2.5 goals and resulted in profitable bets. Focusing bets in the direction of historical league biases, such as betting under 2.5 goals for Serie A games, can further increase profits.

Uploaded by

Genti Madhi
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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THE FORM LAB 2.

5 GOAL STRATEGY
Welcome to the Form Lab 2.5 Goals Strategy Guide. This guide outlines a simple way to quickly find profitable bets using the Game Notes available in all levels of Football Form Lab subscriptions.

FORM LABS POWERFUL GAME NOTES


Form Labs game notes use an algorithm to scan the team trends for any relevant betting ideas. This is an excellent shortcut to finding betting ideas for those without enough time to do their own research or for it to be used as a starting point for your own ideas. For example, the game note for Fulham vs Man City highlights the over 2.5 goals market as a good betting idea.

Bet Idea: Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.92. The bookies give odds of 1.92 on there being over 2.5 goals in the match.

The game indeed ended with over 2.5 goals, landing a healthy profit on the game.

OVER/ UNDER 2.5 GOALS


The over/ under 2.5 goal market is an particularly strong market for form lab. This is an ever popular betting medium is betting as in certain matches, it can be easier to predict the number of goals rather than the match outcome. For example at certain times of the season, in a tight relegation dog fight, the result could go either way, but goals (or lack of) could be a better focus for your betting. P a g e |1

The main goals market you will most likely be using will be Over/Under 2.5 goals. This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal! So why is 2.5 goals is used? Its so bookmakers can offer the bet on a single line. In reality with 2.5 goals betting, you are betting on there being over 2 goals or under 3 goals. By referring to 2.5, you have everything on a single line as three is above 2.5 and 2 is below 2.5. Basically, if you back over, then you need three goals to win, if you back under, then you want no more than two goals.

GAME NOTES TO EDGE YOUR 2.5 GOAL BETS


When it comes to match goal betting trends, diffe rent leagues have their own characteristics. For example France had 57% of games go under 2.50 in the 2010/2011 season, while Germany had just 44% of games go under. The Premier League is emerging as a strong over 2.50 goal market as well. Form Lab not only helps you identify these trends, it also helps you beat them. The table below shows the main European leagues and their over/ under 2.5 goal betting trends for the 2010/2011 season. The league average shows the bias in that league for games being over 2.5 goals or under. For example, the premiership had 54% of games go over 2.5 goals in 2010/2011 season.

The Note Correct column refers to the accuracy of the betting notes with the final column showing you whether the game notes beat the league avera ge. You can see that in all but two leagues, the game notes were more accurate than the league average. In the Premier League, games ended with +2.5 goals 69% of the time when it was highlighted in a game note versus the general league average of 54% of games going +2.5.

HOW TO PROFIT FROM 2.5 GOALS


You might wonder whether this out performance actually translates into betting profits. Its all very well spotting games that are more likely to go +2.5, but if the bookies are already pricing this in with their odds, youre not going to make a profit. Thankfully last season, Form Labs game notes not only beat the league average, they also pulled in a healthy profit. P a g e |2

ROI = Return On Investment Your profit divided by the total amount staked. These returns are based on the best available price only with recognised, respectable bookmakers at kick off. We do not have the odds for Frances League 1, but have been able to calculate the profit and loss in all other leagues. Not every league is profitable, but a decent profit is made overall across the leagues. Observing the distribution of results, one key trend to notice is that the best results tend to come when you bet only in the direction of the general bias for that league. For example, the Italian Serie A historically has more games going -2.5 goals so it makes sense to not fight the trend and bet only on -2.5 goals for that league. We have gone back more than one season to identify these trends, but the main biases are as follows: Serie A: -2.5 goals. La Liga: No strong overall bias. Premiership: No strong historical bias (but +2.5 goals increasing). Bundesliga: +2.5 goals.

Now lets look at the results if we bet only in the direction of a historical bias if there is one:

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We are able to increase the total profit by making less bets. The total profit is 46.45 points from 486 bets, which represents an ROI of 10%, or 10 profit for every 100 you put at risk. At just 25 per bet this could have returned 1,161.25 over the course of the 2011/2012 season. This offers an excellent rate of return and this is before you improve performance further with optional additional analysis.

IMPROVING THE 2.5 GOAL STRATEGY PERFORMANCE


Form Labs Game Notes automatically summarise the best trends for you, but you can easily increase performance by performing some additional analysis of your own. A key filter might be to check the consistency of any betting trends which might give you further confidence in a bet. The game note below highlighted a strong chance of +2.5 goals in the Swansea vs Bolton th match on the 29 .

You could double check this trend by looking at the match goals form table under the match data tab. We can see that Bolton have the most games going +2.5 goals in the last 20, but also that the trend his highly consistent, making this a strong bet.

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Team News If you are a subscriber to Form Lab Black, you can benefit from the player analysis and daily reports which help you determine if any key players are missing that might upset any betting ideas. For example, if there was a game note hinting at there being +2.5 goals in the th Monechengladbach vs Hannover game on the 29 , you might have been interested, but finding yourself needing more reassurance with the best odds being just 1.92. This reassurance might have come in the daily reports which highlighted that Hannover are less likely to keep a clean sheet when defender Steven Cherundolo is absent.

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GETTING STARTED
Whether you follow the 2.5 goal game notes blindly or apply your own additional analysis (recommended), we were confident that the Form Lab 2.5 Goal Strategy will provide you with a solid platform for betting profits. Remember the Game Notes are really just the start of what Form Lab has to offer, with key trends, pre match queries and other powerful tools at your finger tips. In the meantime, if you have any queries or would like to upgrade your subscription, please feel free to contact us at [email protected]

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