Association does

not imply causation

Correlation Coefficient & Simple Linear

Regression
Correlation does not
assume causality STATS 101
but regression
does. Laurens Holmes, Jr.
Sir Galton was the first to apply the word regression to biological and
psychological data. Specifically, Galton observed the heights of children versus
the heights of their parents. He discovered that taller than average parents
tended to have children who were also taller than average, but not as tall as
their parents. Galton characterized this as regression toward mediocrity.
Correlation Coefficient is also attributed to Francis Galton.

Regression implies “…….to go backward”, Why are statistical

methods for predicting a response from an explanatory variable
termed “regression”?
SIR FRANCIS GALTON (1822-1911)
Correlation r
• Linear relationships implying straight line
association are visualized with scatter
plots
• Strong linear relationship
– When the points lie close to a straight line,
and weak if they are widely scattered
Correlation r
• Purpose: Measures the direction and
strength of the linear relationship between
two quantitative variables
– Represented by r.
– There is no assumption of causality
– Assumes a linear association between two
variables.
Correlation r r measures only a
straight line
relationship

• Formula
• r = 1/n-1 Σ (x1 – x/sx)(y1-y/sy)
• Vignette
• Suppose the height of 64 children with OI in our
sample is designated by x and their weight by y,
and n=64 (sample size). If the values of patient 1 is
x1 and y1, patient 2 is x2 and y2 and so on till we
obtain the values for patient 64. The means and
SD of the height and weight x and sx for the
height and y and sy for the weight. What is r?
Interpretations
• X1-x/sx is the standardized height of the
height and SD of OI patients in
centimeters
• This means how many SD above or below
the mean of a patient with OI lies
• Standardized values have no units
• The r simply is the an average of the products of
the standardized height and standardized weight of
n people/patients with OI or people.
Vignette
• The next slide is:
• The hypothetical systolic BP and age of twenty CP
children in a sample at the no-city hospital.
• The hypothetical weight and age of twenty CP
children in a sample at the no-city hospital.
• Computing the correlation, is there a
relationship between SBP and age, as
well as weight and age in this sample?
Also, what do you see in the scatter plot?
• What is the interpretation of your finding?
Table 1. BP and Age of Children with CP
Weight Age
SBP Age
(kg)
90 12.5
38 12.5
88 12.1
45 12.1
100 13.6
35 13.6
70 10.0
50 10.0
80 11.2
60 11.2
90 12.0
45 12.0
100 13.4
30 13.4
102 13.8
51 13.8
120 16.8
53 16.8
110 15.6
40 15.6
89 12.3
43 12.3
80 12.0
39 12.0
90 12.7
41 12.7
100 13.7
40 13.7
87 12.0
50 12.0
93 12.8
56 12.8
82 11.6
52 111.6
102 14.0
62 14.0
93 13.0
39 13.0
86 11.9
44 11.9
Correlation r – basic assumptions
• No distinction between explanatory (x) and response (y)
variable.
• The null hypothesis test that r is significantly different
from zero (0).
• Requires both variables to be quantitative or continuous
variables
• Both variables must be normally distributed. If one or
both are not, either transform the variables to near
normality or use an alternative non-parametric test of
Spearman
• Use Spearman Correlation coefficient when the shape of
the distribution is not assumed or variable is distribution-
free.
Correlation r – basic assumptions
• No categorical or nominal variables
• r does not change when we change the units of
measurement. For example, from Kg to pounds
for weight. Why?
• r uses standardized values of the observations.

• r does not measure nor describe curved or non-

linear association no matter how strong.
• Like the mean and SD, r is not resistant or
uninfluenced by outliers.
• r is strongly affected by outlier or outlying observations.
Figure 1. Scatter plot of the relationship between
SPB and age of children with CP (hypothetical data)
120
110
100
SPB
90
80
70

10 12 14 16 18
Age
Normality test : weight, age, SBP, age

Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality

------- joint ------
Variable | Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
-------------+-------------------------------------------------------
weightkg | 0.564 0.755 0.44 0.8009
age | 0.000 0.000 33.26 0.0000

Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality

------- joint ------
Variable | Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
-------------+-------------------------------------------------------
spb | 0.360 0.339 1.96 0.3762
age | 0.080 0.113 5.37 0.0681
STATA Output – Correlation
coefficient (Pearson)
• pwcorr spb age, obs sig star(5)
Non-significant
correlation does not
• | spb age imply no association
• -------------+------------------
• spb | 1.0000
• |
• | 20
• |
• age | 0.9801* 1.0000
• | 0.0000
• | 20 20
Scatter plot of the relationship between weight and
age of children with CP (hypothetical data)
60
50
W eight
40
30

0 50 100
Age
STATA Output – Correlation coefficient (Pearson)
versus Spearman Rank Correlation
• pwcorr weight age, obs sig star(5)

• | weight age
• -------------+------------------ What is the
•
•
weight |
|
1.0000
correct stats
• | 20 technique?
• |
• age | 0.1741 1.0000
•
| 0.4630
• | 20 20\

spearman weightkg age, stats(rho obs p) star(0.05)

Number of obs = 20
Spearman's rho = 0.0211

Test of Ho: weightkg and age are independent

Prob > |t| = 0.9296

Correlation r - Interpretation
• Positive r indicates positive linear association
between x and y or variables, and negative r
indicates negative linear relationship
• R –s always between -1 and +1
• The strength increases as r moves away from
zero toward wither -1 or +1
• The extreme values +1 and -1 indicate perfect
linear relationship (points lie exactly along a
straight line)
• Graded interpretation : r 0.1-0.3 = weak; 0.4-0.7
= moderate and 0.8-1.0=strong correlation
Vignette
• Suppose there is a linear relationship
between age of CP patients in the sample
data with 66 patients and SBP, examine
this relationship and interpret your results.
Analysis
SPSS Analysis
SPSS Analysis
SPSS Output
SPSS Analysis-Spearman
SPSS Output – Spearman’s rho
Interpretation
• In a sample of 66 children with CP, there is no
significant relationship between age of the
children and systolic BP, r = 0.02, p = 0.90.
• Assuming non-normal distribution of either one of
the variables, a non-parametric test was used
(Spearman Rank correlation), r = 0.025, p =
0.84.
• In either test, there is no linear relationship
between age at surgery and the SBP of these
patients.
• However the absence of a linear association does not rule out
a non-linear relationship between the age of these patients
and their SBP.
SLR does is not a
measure of
association but
linear relationship

Simple Linear Regression

Stats 101
Absence of a significant
association in SLR does not
imply absence of non-linear
association.
Regression Model
• Statistical technique for assessing the
relationship between dependent and one
or more independent variable
• The relationship between two variables is
characterized by how they vary together.
• Given pairs of X and Y variables,
regression analysis measures the
direction (positive and negative) and the
rate of change in Y as X changes (Slope)
Regression Model
• Adequate for predicting the value of Y,
given X
• Inappropriate for assessing the strength of
an association between two or more
variables
• Causal association assumed
Simple regression model
• Regression equation and line represent the
simple linear equation and describe the
shape of the relationship between the
variables.
• Regression line is the line drawn through
scatter plot that test the fitness of the
regression model like the coefficient of
determination in the model
•
Basic Assumptions
• Linearity – The relationship between Y and
X is linear (straight line relationship)
• Residuals are independent and normally
distributed
• Homosedasticity - The variance of the
residuals is equal for all X
• There is no measurement error on X
(impractical assumption) - < 10% is
assumed adequate measurement error.
Basics of SLR
• Different values of x will produce different
values of y
• Uy = βo + β1x
• The mean all lie on a straight line
• Both y and x vary according to normal
distributions
• The normal distributions all have the same
standard deviation
• The explanatory variables x can take many
values
Basics of simple linear
regression
• All means lie on a line when plotted against x
• The equation of the line is μy = βo + β1x,
with intercept βo and slope β1
• Population regression line describes how the
mean response changes with x
• The response y to a given x is a random
variable that can take different values if we
have several observations with the same x-
value
Simple linear regression model
• The population regression line connects mean of y with x in the
population
• The slope β1 is the mean increase in y for increase in x or vice
versa
• The intercept βo is the starting point when x = 0.
• DATA = FIT + RESIDUAL
• The RESIDUAL represents deviations of the data from the line of
population means
• The model takes the deviation to be normally distributed with
standard deviation σ
• ϵ represents the residual part of the stats model
• Y is the sum of its mean and chance deviation ϵ from the mean
• The deviation ϵ represent the noise, implying the variation in y
due to other causes that prevent the observed (x,y)-values from
forming a perfect straight line on a scatterplot.
Simple linear regression model
• The data are n observations on an explanatory
variable x and response variable y, (x1y1), (x2,y2),
(x3,y3)…….., (xn,yn)
• The statistical model for SLR states that the observed
response yi when the explanatory variable takes the
value xi is:
• Yi=βo + β1x1 + ϵi
• μy= βo + β1x1 is the mean response when x = xi. The
deviation ϵi are independent and normally distributed
with mean 0 and SD, σ
• The parameters of the model are the intercept and
slope of the population regression line and the
variability (σ) of the response y about the line.
Simple linear regression model
• Model involves parameters that are unknown (β0 and
β1) but can be estimated from sample data
• The error term, ϵί termed eta is also unobservable but
can be estimated from sample data
• Regression coefficients are values that represent the
effect of the individual independent variable (X) on the
dependent variable (Y)
• R2 is the coefficient of determination and illustrates
the amount of variation in the dependent variable that is
explained by variation in the independent variable.
• Β0 is the intercept on Y when X=0
• Β1 is the slope of the regression which is increase or
decrease in Y for each change in X.
SLR : F test and t test
• F test is used as a general indicator of the
probability that the predictor variable contribute
to the variance in the dependent variable.
• The null hypothesis is that the predictor weight is zero
• The t test is used to test the significance of the
predictor in the equation.
• The null hypothesis is that the predictor or independent
variable does not contribute to the variance in the dependent
variable.
Vignette – Hypothetical Data
• Suppose you are interested in predicting
the weight (gm) in pericentrin positive
dwarfism based on the gestational age
(wks). Is correlation coefficient appropriate
test for this project? If not, select
appropriate test statistic, present the
regression equation, and interpret your
result. Test the fitness of the model and
explain coefficient of determination?
SPSS Analysis
Scatter plot
Normality Test
Is wt (gm)
normally
. swilk gm_wt distributed
Shapiro-Wilk W test for normal data ?
Variable | Obs W V z Prob>z
-------------+--------------------------------------------------
gm_wt | 320 0.89954 22.665 7.348 0.00000

. swilk gestationalageinweeks

Shapiro-Wilk W test for normal data

Variable | Obs W V z Prob>z

-------------+--------------------------------------------------
gestation~ks | 320 0.80004 45.112 8.969 0.00000

.
Is
gestational
sktest gm_wt gestationalageinweeks age (wks)
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
------- joint ------
normally
Variable | Obs Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
distributed?
gm_wt | 320 0.0000 0.9223 29.74 0.0000
gestation~ks | 320 0.0000 0.0000 . 0.0000

.
Regression (Output) & Equation
regress gm_wt gestationalageinweeks if n_catgesta==1, vce(robust)

Linear regression Number of obs = 78

F( 1, 76) = 445.12
Prob > F = 0.0000
R-squared = 0.8849
Root MSE = 320.37

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Robust
gm_wt | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
gestation~ks | 102.313 4.849445 21.10 0.000 92.65446 111.9715
_cons | -2546.343 207.273 -12.28 0.000 -2959.163 -2133.523

WEIGHT = - 2546.3 + 102.3 grams (GESTATIONAL AGE in WEEKS)

Regression Line, Equation, R square

What is R
square?

Interpret the
regression
equation
Vignette
• In children with CP who underwent spinal
fusion for curve deformities correction, can
postoperative cobb angle be used in
predicting their length of hospitalization?
What is the regression equation? Please
interpret your result.
Scatter plot
Is there a linear
relationship from
this plot?
SLR: SPSS
Ignore
Result Interpretation
• The result from SLR states the direction, strength, value,
degrees of freedom and significance level.
• Note that if ANOVA is not significant, the section of the output
labeled sig will be > 0.05, implying that the regression equation is
not significant.
• Statement of result: A simple linear regression was
computed predicting CP children’s length of hospital stay
following spinal fusion based on their postoperative cobb
angle. The regression equation was not significant
(F( 1,62)= 0.18, p = 0.67, with an R square of 0.003.
• Therefore, postoperative cobb angle cannot be used to predict the
length of hospitalization following spinal fusion in CP children with
scoliosis.
53