PROBABILITY

Definition
Probability is defined as the measure of results
or outcomes of expectations (events) in
numerical forms. The numbers to be assigned
normally stand between 0 and 1.
Probability

LAWS OF PROBABILITY
1. 0 ≤ P ≤ 1 means that the numerical value of
probability lies between 0 and 1 i.e. probability
cannot be less than 0 and cannot be greater than
1. Probability of 0 means uncertainty, while the
probability of 1 means certainty or surety.
2. The sum of the probability of success and that
of failure equals 1.
3. Probability is written as
No of possible outcomes
No of total outcomes
Probability
• There are four major types of probability. They
are:
• 1. Experimental Probability
• 2. Theoretical Probability
• 3. Mutually Exclusive Events
• 4. Independent Events
Probability
• 1. Experimental Probability
• This is based on the result of the actual test
that is carried out. The occurrence is based on
past numerical records in order to arrive at
future occurrences. It has the formula
• Number of required outcomes
• Number of total outcomes
Probability
• Examples
• 1. Out of 500 fruits bought, it is known from
experiment that 25 will be bad. What is the
probability that a fruit, picked from the lot will
be good.
Probability
• Solution
• Since the total fruits = 500
• Number of expected bad fruit = 25
• Number of expected good ones = (500 – 25)
= 475
• Probability of picking a good fruit = 475/500
• = 19/20
Probability
• 2. The table below shows the marks scored
by a number of students in a Further
Mathematics test.
Marks (%) 30 40 50 60 80

No. of students 11 8 4 5 2
Probability
• (a) How many students took the test.
• (b) What is the probability that a student
chosen at random from the class will score
• (i) 40% (ii) above 50% (iii) below 60%
• (c) What is the probability that a student
chosen at random will pass if the pass mark is
• (i) 50% (ii) 40% (iii) 70%
Probability

Solution
(a) The number of students that took the test = 11 + 8 + 4 + 5 + 2
= =30
30 students took the test.
(b) Since probability = Number of required outcome
Number of total outcome
(i) Probability of pupil that scored 40% is 8/30 = 4/15
i.e. (since 8 people scored 40)
(ii) Probability of above 50% => 5 + 2 = 7/30
(iii) Probability of below 60% => 4 + 8 + 11 = 23/30
(c) (i) Probability of pass mark is 50% = 4 + 5 + 2 = 11/30
(ii) Probability 40% = 8 + 4 + 5 + 2 = 19/30
(iii) Probability 70% = 2/30 = 1/15
Probability
• Class Work
• Exam Maths page 81 number 12, 13 and 15
•
• Assignment
• Exam Maths page 81-82 number 19, 23, 33, 42
Probability
• 2. Theoretical Probability
• The theoretical probability is based on the
occurrence of the exact values that are
dependent on the physical nature of the
conditions or situations that are being
considered
Probability
• Examples
• 1. Two fair dice are thrown, what is the
probability of getting:
• (a) a sum of 9
• (b) Two odd numbers
(c) Two prime numbers
(d) Two prime factors of 12
•
Probability
1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 1, 4 1, 5 1, 6

2 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4 2, 5 2, 6

3 3, 1 3, 2 3, 3 3, 4 3, 5 3, 6

4 4, 1 4, 2 4, 3 4, 4 4, 5 4, 6

5 5, 1 5, 2 5, 3 5, 4 5, 5 5, 6

6 6, 1 6, 2 6, 3 6, 4 6, 5 6, 6
Probability
• Total Outcome = 36
• (a) Prob (sum of 9) = 4/36 = 1/9
• (b) Prob (two odd nos) = 9/36 = 1/4
• (c) Prob (two prime nos) = 9/36 = 1/4
• (d) Prob (prime factor of 12) = 4/36 = 1/9
Probability
• 2. Three coins are tossed together, find the
probability of getting
• (a) Three heads
(b) Two heads and one tail
(c) Two tails and one head
Probability
• Total outcomes = 8
• (a) Prob (Three Heads) = 1/8

• (b) Prob (Two Heads and one Tail) = 3/8

• (c) Prob (Two Tails and one Head) = 3/8
Probability
• 3. A bag contains 2 black, 3 red and 6 white
balls. A ball is picked at random, what is the
probability that it is:
• (a) black (b) red (c) white
(d) not red (e) not black
Probability

• Solution
• 3 - red
• 2 - black
• 6 - white
• 11 - Total
•
• (a) P(black) = Number of black = 2
• Total ball 11
•
• (b) P(red) = 3/11
•
• (c) P(white) = 6/11
•
• (d) P(not red) = 1 – P(red) = 1 - 3/11 = 8/11
•
• (e) P(not black) = 1 – P(black) = 1 – 2/11 = 9/11
Probability
• Class Work
• Exam Maths page 81 numbers 1 – 11
•
• Assignment
• Exam Maths page 81 number 15
Probability

• MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

• The mutually exclusive event is also referred to
as the addition of probabilities. This occurs
when the occurrence of an event will not allow
the occurrence of another. When an event
prevents the occurrence of another, we say that
the two events are Mutually Exclusive. In
practice, we use the connectors such as ‘Or’,
‘Either’ and ‘Neither’.
Probability
• Examples
1.A fair die is thrown once. What is the
probability of scoring a
(a) 3 or 6
(b) 4 or 5
(c) neither 6 nor 1
Probability

• Solution
• Total outcome = 6
• (a) P(3) = 1/6 : P(6) = 1/6
• P(3 or 6) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3
• (b) P(4 or 5) = P(4) + P(5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3
• (c) P(neither 6 nor 1) =
• 1 – P(6 or 1) = 1 – (1/6 + 1/6) = 1 - 1/3 = 2/3
Probability
2. A number is chosen at random from the set,
{ 2, 4, 6,………18, 20}. Find the probability that
it is a factor of 18 or a multiple of 5
Probability
Solution
• Total outcome = 10
• Factors of 18 = 2, 6, 18
• P(factors of 18) = 3/10
• Multiple of 5 = 10, 20
• P(multiple of 5) = 2/10 = 1/5
• P(factors of 18 or multiples of 5)
• = 3/10 + 2/10 = 5/10 = ½
Probability
• INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• If two events can occur without one affecting the
other, such events are said to be independent. The
probability is found by multiplying the individual
probabilities of the various events that are
involved. Independent events are also referred to
as the Multiplication of Probabilities. The
connectors are ‘And’, ‘Both’ and All are usually
used.
Probability
• Examples
• 1. Three balls are drawn one after the
other from a bag containing 5 red, 9 white and
4 blue identical balls. What is the probability
that they are:
(a) all red
(b) 2 white and 1 blue
(c) one red, one white and one blue
P ro b ab ilty

• Solution
• Total number of balls is 18
• Prob (red) = 5/18; Prob(white) = 9/18, P(blue) =4/18
• (a) P(RRR) = 5/18 x 5/18 x 5/18 = 125/5832

• (b) P(2W1B) = WWB or WBW or BWW

• =( 9/18 x 9/18 x 4/18) + (9/18 x 4/18 x 9/18) + (4/18 x
9/18 x 9/18)
• = 1/6
• (c) P(1R1B1W) = RBW or RWB or BWR or BRW or
WRB or WBR
• = 5/18 x 4/18 x 9/18 + 5/18 x 9/18 x 4/18 +……..
• =5/162 x 6 = 30/162 = 15/81 = 5/27
Probability
2. An unbiased coin and a fair die are tossed.
Find the probability of obtaining a head on the
coin and a prime number on the die.
Probability

Solution
• P(H) = ½
• P(prime) = 3/6
• P(H and Prime) = ½ x ½
• = ¼
Probability

• 3. A basket contains 3 red, 5 blue and 7 green

marbles. Two marbles are picked at random one
after the other without replacement. Find the
probability that:
• (a) both are red
• (b) first is blue and the other is green
• (c) one is blue and the other is green
(d) both are of different colors
• (e) both are of the same color
Probability

• Solution
• Red - 3
• Blue - 5
• Green - 7
• Total - 15
• (a) P(Red) (Red) = 3/15 x 2/14 = 1/35
• (b) P(BG) = 5/15 x 7/14 = 1/6
• (c) P(BG) or P(GB) = 5/15 x 7/14 + 7/15 x 5/14 = 1/3
• (d) P(RB or BR or RG or GR or BG or GB)
• (3/15 x 5/14) + (5/15 x 3/14) + (3/15 x 7/14)
+ (7/15 x 3/14) + (5/15 x 7/14) + (7/15 x 5/14)
• (15/210) + (15/210) + (21/210) + (21/210)
+ (35/210) +(35/210)
• = 71/105
• (e) P(same color) = P(RR or BB or GG)
• = 3/15 x 2/14 + 5/15 x 4/14 + 7/15 x 6/14
• = 6/210 + 20/210 + 42/210 = 34/105
Probability

• Class Work
• 1. A bag contains 3 black and 5 yellow balls. Two balls are
taken at random without replacement. Find the probability
that
• (a) They are both black
• (b) They are both yellow
• (c) The first is yellow and the other is black
• (d) One is yellow and the other is black
• (e) They are of the same color.
•
• Assignment
• Exam mathematics page 86 numbers 27 and 1
•
Probability

SPECIAL CASES OF PROBABILITY

Probability

• SPECIAL CASES OF PROBABILITY

• This case has to do with equiprobable events.
In this case, probabilities of success and failure
are considered.
• N.B. If p = Probability of success and
• q = Probability of failure,
• then, p + q = 1
• → P = 1 – q; and
• q=1–p
Probability
• Examples
• 1. Two hunters aim at a target. The
probability that the first will hit his target is 1/5
and the probability of the second hitting is 2/7.
Find the probability that
• (a) Both will hit it
• (b) Only the first will hit it
• (c) One of them will hit it
• (d) Both of them will miss it.
Probability

• Solution
• Let the first hunter be A and the second be B.
• P(A) = 1/5: P(A1) = 1 – 1/5 = 4/5
• P(B) = 2/7: P(B1) = 1 – 2/7 = 5/7
• (a) P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)
• = 1/5 x 2/7 = 2/35
• (b) P(AB1) = 1/5 x 5/7 = 1/7
• (c) P(AB1 or A1B) = (1/5 x 5/7) + (4/5 x 2/7)
• = (5/35 + 8/35) = 13/35
• (d) P(A1B1) = P(A1) x P(B1)
• = 4/5 X 5/7 = 4/7
Probability
The probability of an event P is 3/4, while that of
another event Q = 1/6. If the probability of both
P and Q is 1/12, what is the probability of either
P or Q?
Solution
• Probability of P or Q = P(P u Q)
• Probability of P and Q = P(P n Q)
• P(P u Q) = P(P) + P(Q) – P(P n Q)
• = 3/4 + 1/6 – 1/12
• = 5/6
P ro b ab ilty

• Class Work
• The chances of three independent events P, Q
and R occurring are 1/2, 2/3 and 1/4 respectively.
What are the chances of
• (a) Q and R only occurring
• (b) P only occurring
• (c) None occurring
• (d) One of them only occurring
• (e) Two of them only occurring
Probability
• Assignment
• The probability that Okon passes
Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry at SSCE
level are 1/6, 1/4 and 1/3 respectively. Find
the probability that he passes only two
subjects.