Oscar Predictions: ‘Frankenstein’ Surges as ‘Hamnet,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners’ Hold Strong
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Nov. 20, 2025): With the race tightening and several contenders hitting new peaks, the season is in full acceleration as the Thanksgiving holiday looms.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” continues to dominate the charts with a massive 14 projected nominations, followed closely by Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” at 13 and Guillermo del Toro’s rapidly ascending “Frankenstein” with 12. As Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” holds steady at 11 and “Wicked: For Good” pushes into the top tier with nine, the Oscar landscape is taking shape — but it’s still far from settled (or “locked”).
Del Toro’s return to the director and adapted screenplay prediction charts for the first time in months signals a meaningful shift in momentum for “Frankenstein.” The film’s surge has also elevated its craft prospects and overall awards narrative, with industry buzz mirroring its climb.
On the performance side, Hailee Steinfeld breaks into the supporting actress lineup for the first time this season, thanks to her standout turn in “Sinners,” and could net her a second career nom after “True Grit” (2010).
Yet dark horses continue to linger at the edges, threatening to upend any sense of stability. “Ne Zha 2” remains a vibrant player in animated feature, while “Bugonia” is positioned could still surprise in several categories if passion votes stack up.
The first official charts for achievement in casting and original score are out.
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (13); “Frankenstein” (12); “Hamnet” (11); “Wicked: For Good” (9);
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (30); Netflix (19); Focus Features (14); Neon (13); A24 (7)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Disney “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) -
Director
Image Credit: Neon Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo Del Toro
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of NEON Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke ***
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Benicio del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Hailee Steinfeld
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima/Focus Features “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar -
Casting
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Robin D. Cook
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Trinity CineAsia “Arco” (Neon)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids) ***
“Ne Zha 2” (A24)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Production Design
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan Crowley, Lee SandalesOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Searchlight “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Malgorzata Karpiuk
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Film Editing
Image Credit: A24 “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Evan Schiff
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. ShawverOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Credit: Sabrina Lantos “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Linda Gannon
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Mike Hill
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Siân Richards, Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Laura Blount, Frances Hannon, Sarah NuthOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Sound
Image Credit: Courtesy of Everett Collection “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Brent Burge, Melanie Graham, Michael Hedges, Gary Summers
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Luke Dunn Gielmuda, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Christian T. Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Craig MacLellan, Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Jack Dolman, Simon Hayes, John Marquis, Andy Nelson, Nancy Nugent TitleOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: Jay Maidment “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Score
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Blumberg -
Original Song
Image Credit: Greenwich Entertainment “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Dream as One” by Miley Cyrus, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Clothed by the Sun” by Daniel BlumbergOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Sundance FF “Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Ryan White, Stef Willen
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
Maria Cuomo Cole, Jana Edelbaum, Janique L. Robillard, Kim A. Snyder
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
Jean Dakar, Anna Hashmi, Tamara Kotevska, Jordanco Petkovski
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
Raney Aronson, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Quim Vives “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
dir. Oliver Laxe
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben Hania