Founder & AI Systems Engineer | Specialist in Commodities Trading & Operations (OT) | Power, Nat Gas, Data Centers, LNG, SCADA
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We were wrong. 5 years ago; the narrative was that natural gas power plants were a dying breed. Today, the case for nat gas power is stronger than ever. ð—¦ð—¼ ð˜„ð—µð—®ð˜ ð—µð—®ð—½ð—½ð—²ð—»ð—²ð—±? In 2019, the narrative around natural gas in the US power sector seemed clear. ð—ªð—² ð˜„ð—²ð—¿ð—² ð—¼ð˜ƒð—²ð—¿ð—¯ð˜‚ð—¶ð—¹ð—±ð—¶ð—»ð—´. ð——ð—²ð—ºð—®ð—»ð—± ð˜„ð—®ð˜€ ð—³ð—¹ð—®ð˜. ð—” ð—´ð—¹ð˜‚ð˜ ð˜„ð—®ð˜€ ð—³ð—¼ð—¿ð—ºð—¶ð—»ð—´. According to S&P Global, between 2008 and 2019, the US added 120 GW of gas-fired capacity. At least 200 new gas plants were planned or in development, totaling nearly 70 GW of additional capacity. ð—–ð—®ð—½ð—²ð˜… ð—¿ð—¼ð˜€ð—² ð—³ð—¿ð—¼ð—º $ðŸ²ðŸ¬ ð—¯ð—¶ð—¹ð—¹ð—¶ð—¼ð—» ð—¶ð—» ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸ¬ðŸ´ ð˜ð—¼ ð—ºð—¼ð—¿ð—² ð˜ð—µð—®ð—» $ðŸðŸðŸ¬ ð—¯ð—¶ð—¹ð—¹ð—¶ð—¼ð—» ð—¶ð—» ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸðŸ´. ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸðŸµ ð˜„ð—®ð˜€ ð—²ð˜…ð—½ð—²ð—°ð˜ð—²ð—± ð˜ð—¼ ð˜€ð˜‚ð—¿ð—½ð—®ð˜€ð˜€ $ðŸðŸ®ðŸ¬ ð—¯ð—¶ð—¹ð—¹ð—¶ð—¼ð—». Several factors were driving this overbuilding: - Historically low natural gas prices due to the shale gas revolution - Utility business models that rewarded new infrastructure - Outdated demand forecasts - High reserve margins - Slower-than-expected growth in renewable energy ð— ð—®ð—»ð˜† ð—²ð˜…ð—½ð—²ð—¿ð˜ð˜€ ð—¯ð—²ð—¹ð—¶ð—²ð˜ƒð—²ð—± ð˜ð—µð—²ð˜€ð—² ð—½ð—¹ð—®ð—»ð˜ð˜€ ð˜„ð—¼ð˜‚ð—¹ð—± ð—¯ð—²ð—°ð—¼ð—ºð—² ð˜€ð˜ð—¿ð—®ð—»ð—±ð—²ð—± ð—®ð˜€ð˜€ð—²ð˜ð˜€ ð˜„ð—²ð—¹ð—¹ ð—¯ð—²ð—³ð—¼ð—¿ð—² ð˜ð—µð—²ð—¶ð—¿ ð—½ð—¹ð—®ð—»ð—»ð—²ð—± ð—¹ð—¶ð—³ð—²ð˜ð—¶ð—ºð—²ð˜€ ð˜„ð—²ð—¿ð—² ð—¼ð˜ƒð—²ð—¿. ð—™ð—®ð˜€ð˜ ð—³ð—¼ð—¿ð˜„ð—®ð—¿ð—± ð˜ð—¼ ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸ®ðŸ°: The narrative has shifted dramatically. According to Sierra Club research: ð—§ð—µð—²Â ð—³ð—¶ð—¿ð˜€ð˜ ð˜€ð—¶ð˜… ð—ºð—¼ð—»ð˜ð—µð˜€ ð—¼ð—³ ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸ®ðŸ° ð—®ð—¹ð—¼ð—»ð—², ð—°ð—¼ð—ºð—½ð—®ð—»ð—¶ð—²ð˜€ ð—®ð—»ð—»ð—¼ð˜‚ð—»ð—°ð—²ð—± ð—½ð—¹ð—®ð—»ð˜€ ð˜ð—¼ ð—¯ð˜‚ð—¶ð—¹ð—± ð—ºð—¼ð—¿ð—² ð—»ð—²ð˜„ ð—´ð—®ð˜€ ð—½ð—¼ð˜„ð—²ð—¿ ð—°ð—®ð—½ð—®ð—°ð—¶ð˜ð˜† ð—®ð—°ð—¿ð—¼ð˜€ð˜€ ð˜ð—µð—² ð—¨ð—¦ ð˜ð—µð—®ð—» ð˜ð—µð—²ð˜† ð—±ð—¶ð—± ð—¶ð—» ð—®ð—¹ð—¹ ð—¼ð—³ ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸ®ðŸ¬. If this trend continues, 2024 will mark the most new gas-power generation announced since at least 2017. ð—•ð—®ð˜€ð—²ð—± ð—¼ð—» BloombergNEF ð—¿ð—²ð˜€ð—²ð—®ð—¿ð—°ð—µ: ð—ªð—µð—®ð˜'𘀠ð—±ð—¿ð—¶ð˜ƒð—¶ð—»ð—´ ð˜ð—µð—¶ð˜€ ð—¿ð—²ð˜€ð˜‚ð—¿ð—´ð—²ð—»ð—°ð—²? - Surge in demand from AI data centers - Increased power needs for manufacturing facilities - Growing adoption of electric vehicles ERCOT ð—µð—®ð˜€ ð˜ð—µð—² ð—ºð—¼ð˜€ð˜ ð—»ð—²ð˜„ ð—´ð—²ð—»ð—²ð—¿ð—®ð˜ð—¶ð—¼ð—» ð—®ð—»ð—»ð—¼ð˜‚ð—»ð—°ð—²ð—± ð—¶ð—» ðŸ®ðŸ¬ðŸ®ðŸ° ð˜€ð—¼ ð—³ð—®ð—¿. Looking at all planned additions, the US Southeast is the leader. This shift is causing utilities to revise their decarbonization goals: PacifiCorp, ð—µð—®ð˜€ ð—®ð—»ð—»ð—¼ð˜‚ð—»ð—°ð—²ð—± ð—½ð—¹ð—®ð—»ð˜€ ð˜ð—¼ ð—®ð—±ð—± ð—ºð—¼ð—¿ð—² ð˜ð—µð—®ð—» ð—³ð—¶ð˜ƒð—² ð—´ð—¶ð—´ð—®ð˜„ð—®ð˜ð˜ð˜€ ð—¼ð—³ ð—»ð—²ð˜„ ð—»ð—®ð˜ð˜‚ð—¿ð—®ð—¹ ð—´ð—®ð˜€ ð—´ð—²ð—»ð—²ð—¿ð—®ð˜ð—¶ð—¼ð—» They cancelled 7 GW of renewable energy projects over the next two decades. ð—§ð—µð—² U.S. Energy Information Administration ð—½ð—¿ð—¼ð—·ð—²ð—°ð˜ð˜€ ð˜ð—µð—®ð˜ ð—´ð—®ð˜€ ð˜„ð—¶ð—¹ð—¹ ð—®ð—°ð—°ð—¼ð˜‚ð—»ð˜ ð—³ð—¼ð—¿ ð—»ð—²ð—®ð—¿ð—¹ð˜† ðŸ°ðŸ¬% ð—¼ð—³ ð—¨ð—¦ ð—½ð—¼ð˜„ð—²ð—¿ ð—¯ð˜† ð—ºð—¶ð—±ð—°ð—²ð—»ð˜ð˜‚ð—¿ð˜†, ð˜„ð—¶ð˜ð—µ ð—¿ð—²ð—»ð—²ð˜„ð—®ð—¯ð—¹ð—²ð˜€ ð˜€ð˜ð—¶ð—¹ð—¹ ð—¯ð—²ð—¹ð—¼ð˜„ ð—¼ð—»ð—²-ð˜ð—µð—¶ð—¿ð—±. Natural gas is essential for grid reliability and deploying more renewables to backstop the grid. #energytransition #datacenter #naturalgas #cleantech #ai Arcus Power Corp