Absa Africa Financial

Markets Index 2018

Taking you further into Africa
than ever before.

28.5167° S | 28.6167° E

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 1

The Absa Africa Financial Markets Absa Group Limited (‘Absa Group’) is listed on the Johannesburg Stock
Index was produced by OMFIF in Exchange and is one of Africa’s largest diversified financial services groups.
association with Absa Group Limited.
The scores on p.7 and elsewhere Absa Group offers an integrated set of products and services across
record the total result (max=100) of personal and business banking, corporate and investment banking, wealth
assessments accross Pillars 1-6. For and investment management and insurance.
methodology see individual Pillar Absa Group has a presence in 12 countries in Africa, with approximately
assessments and p.38-39. 42,000 employees.

OMFIF conducted extensive The Group’s registered head office is in Johannesburg, South Africa, and
quantitative research and data it owns majority stakes in banks in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius,
analysis with additional data input Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa (Absa Bank), Tanzania (Barclays Bank
from Absa. Qualitative survey data Tanzania and National Bank of Commerce), Uganda and Zambia. The Group
were collected and analysed by OMFIF also has representative offices in Namibia and Nigeria, as well as insurance
with significant in-country expertise operations in Botswana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and
provided by Absa. The report was Zambia.
written by OMFIF, with Absa acting in
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an advisory capacity.
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and Events team exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – central banks, sovereign
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OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes – particularly in
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Marketing Executive.

2 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

Contents
Forewords4-5 Pillar 4:
Capacity of local
Introduction6-7 investors
24-27
Executive summary 8-11 Examines the size of local
investors, assessing the level
Contains country comparisons and highlights of local demands against
opportunities and challenges for the region’s financial supply of assets available in
markets. each market.

Acknowledgments11

Pillar 1:
Market depth
12-15 Pillar 5:
Examines size, liquidity Macroeconomic
and depth of markets and opportunity
diversity of products in each 28-31
market. Assesses countries’ economic
prospects using metrics
on growth, debt, export
competitiveness, banking
sector risk and availability of
macro data.

Pillar 2:
Access to foreign Pillar 6: Legality and
exchange enforceability of standard
16-19 financial markets
Assesses the ease with which master agreements
foreign investors can deploy
and repatriate capital in the 32-35
region. Tracks the commitment to
international financial market
agreements, enforcement
of netting and collateral
positions and the strength of
insolvency frameworks.

Country snapshots 36-37

Pillar 3:
Market transparency, Indicators and Methodology 38-39
tax and regulatory
environment
20-23
Evaluates the tax and
regulatory frameworks in
each jurisdiction, as well as
the level of financial stability
and of transparency of
financial information.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 3

Vital role for
the future

Akinwumi Adesina
President of the African
Development Bank

Aim of index Capital markets play a vital role in Africa’s future. The
continent’s financial markets have remained resilient
African economies and innovative amid slowing worldwide growth after
the synchronised upturn of 2017. However, they remain
are undergoing a fragmented and shallow compared to their equivalents in
Latin America and Asia. The second edition of the Absa
significant period Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by OMFIF, draws
attention to the considerable investment opportunities and
of transition and untapped market potential of countries across the continent.
The African Development Bank’s African Financial Markets
appraisal, with Initiative was launched in 2008 to develop local currency
bond markets. Africa’s capital markets have grown
growing foreign significantly over the past few decades, with around 30
stock exchanges in 2018 against just five in the 1980s. Total
investment local currency sovereign bond issues increased to more than
$240bn in 2017 from $28bn in 2000. This includes 94% of
interest and much Treasury bills with original maturity of less than one year in

examination of the 2000 v. around 80% in 2017. The Bank’s African Financial
Market Database expanded to 43 countries in 2015 from 22
continent’s potential in 2012.
Resilient and deeper financial markets are essential to
for mobilising local Africa’s transformation. Achieving the Bank’s ‘High 5’
objectives for accelerating Africa’s transformation (light up
resources. Now in and power, feed, integrate, industrialise and improve the
quality of life for the people of Africa) depends on financial
its second year, the markets playing a greater role in financing the real economy.

index has become a The Bank’s goal is to support 20 capital markets over the
next decade and address market development challenges,
benchmark for the including those identified in the various indicators of the six
pillars of this index. That is why the Bank engages with the
investment community public and private sectors to support market reforms, such
as policy modernisation and frameworks governing capital
and Africa generally markets. Flexibility in accessing capital markets is key to
unlocking domestic savings and attracting investment.
to gauge countries’ Africa’s transformation requires significant resources. To
achieve universal energy access by 2025, for example, policy-
performance and makers must mobilise $30bn-$55bn annually in domestic
and international capital. This calls for a shift of resource
highlight how they can mobilisation, deploying robust financial systems and capital
markets. The private sector will need to bear much of the
learn from others. load. This latest OMFIF report provides an excellent basis
for the acceleration of the delivery of the Bank’s ‘High 5’
strategy and I strongly commend its publication.

4 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

FOREWORDS

Resilient capital markets are a Co-operation underpins

necessity, not a luxury inclusive growth

Jingdong Hua Maria Ramos

Vice-President and Treasurer, Chief Executive Officer,
International Finance Corporation Absa Group

Delve into the history of countries athat have achieved Greater co-operation and collaboration between African
transformative economic growth and a common countries will be the fundamental building blocks
denominator emerges: in nearly every case they relied on for sustainable economic development, accelerating
sound financial architecture to effectively build and connect industrialisation and the achievement of inclusive
savings to investments. Africa’s potential, if it harnesses growth. The recent signing of the African Continental
the power of resilient financial architecture, is likewise,
Free Trade Agreement by most member states of
enormous.
the African Union has ushered in an era of enhanced
Policy-makers must recognise that capital markets are intraregional co-operation and was an important
as important as social and physical infrastructure. The signpost on Africa’s journey towards building the
good news is that a new generation of African leaders institutions and financial infrastructure that will attract
are embracing the long-term view, acknowledging the local and international investors.
development paradigm has changed, and prioritising the
private sector. The second edition of the Absa Africa Financial Markets
As this second Absa Africa Financial Markets Index reveals, Index comes at a time when emerging market economies
important steps are being taken to develop financial systems are under intense pressure with currencies depreciating,
that are robust and large enough to entrench resilience. Still, growth slowing and interest rates rising. The impact
Africa’s corporate bond market is markedly small, and many has been driven in part by economic developments in
countries face financial, security or humanitarian challenges, advanced economies but also local factors. The current
and an urgent need to diversity their economies. period has only highlighted the importance of strong
Without significant shifts in policy, the world is not on domestic financial markets in improving economic
track to achieve the target of less than 3% of people living resilience.
in extreme poverty by 2030. In some places, including The 2018 edition of the index takes us further into
sub-Saharan Africa, poverty could remain in double digits Africa’s financial markets than ever before. The
percentages. To create an enabling environment for job
report assesses progress and potential across six
creation and shared prosperity, Africa must develop
deep, liquid and open capital markets both domestically key areas: market depth; access to foreign exchange;
and regionally – ensuring efficient channelling of savings market transparency, tax and regulatory environment;
towards entrepreneurs and financing vital rail, road, power macroeconomic opportunity; and the legality and
and housing infrastructure. enforceability of standard financial markets master
agreements.
IFC – a sister organisation of the World Bank and member of
the World Bank Group – is the largest global development We believe the index is an important tool that can be
institution focused exclusively on the private sector in used by policy-makers and market participants to guide
developing countries. More and more of our clients in Africa their efforts in building robust financial markets that can
are demanding local currency financing. As a triple A-rated drive inclusive growth. We are proud to be relaunching
institution, we are increasingly offering local currency the index as part of the Absa Group’s commitment to
solutions and access to local capital markets so they can
contributing to pan-African growth and prosperity.
focus on growing business instead of worrying about
exchange rate volatility.
We are also committed to building capacity, and recently
welcomed our third class of fellows for the Capital Markets
Program we have developed with the Milken Institute and
the George Washington University, forming champions for
capital markets development in emerging economies. Capital
markets are not a luxury – they are a necessity.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 5

Signs of progress amid regional
economic weakness

The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by OMFIF, provides a toolkit for
countries seeking to strengthen their financial markets infrastructure. It tracks
progress on financial market developments annually across a range of countries
and indicators. This year’s edition extends coverage to three new countries –
Angola, Cameroon and Senegal – and pays special attention to policies to enhance
market growth, including financial inclusion and investor education. Kenya, Morocco
and the Seychelles have improved their scores most over the last year, particularly
in terms of openness to foreign exchange. Nigeria’s score has also strengthened,
thanks to policies augmenting market depth and enhancing the capacity of local
investors. Mauritius and Namibia, while still among the top performers, have seen
their scores deteriorate across most pillars. Improvements in market infrastructure
and regulatory frameworks could boost the performance of countries in the middle
of the index over coming years.

6 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

INTRODUCTION

2018 2017 Score Comments

1 1 South Africa 93 Deep and liquid financial markets but shows weaker macroeconomic outlook

2 3 Botswana 65 Stable performance across pillars with efforts made to improve local investor base

3 5 Kenya 65 Top place for access to foreign exchange but limited product diversit

4 2 Mauritius 62 Strong regulatory and legal framework but shallow foreign exchange market

5 6 Nigeria 61 Improvements in administrative efficiency and tax incentives boost regulatory environment

6 4 Namibia 57 Strong local investor base but low liquidity in domestic market

7 7 Ghana 55 Markets benefits from regulatory reforms but have weak insolvency framework

8 9 Zambia 53 Relaxation of capital controls supports growth of foreign exchange market

9 12 Morocco 50 Broad improvements across all pillars, especially on local investor base

10 10 Uganda 50 Stable performance with good foreign exchange access but low local investor capacity

11 8 Rwanda 49 Discrepancies between strong official rules on transparency and reality of implementation

12 16 Seychelles 45 Liberalisation of capital account boosts foreign investment opportunities

13 13 Ivory Coast 44 Improving reporting standards but weak foreign participation in the market

14 - Senegal 44 Regional exchange provides opportunities for growth but legal framework lags behind peers

15 11 Tanzania 43 Mining sector regulations help market deepen but local investors continue to lack capacity

16 14 Egypt 42 Improving foreign exchange environment but problems with contract enforcing

17 - Cameroon 41 Low market depth and weak legal framework

18 15 Mozambique 36 Improved reporting standard but poor access to foreign exchange

19 - Angola 34 Move to more flexible exchange rate encourages foreign investment but capital controls still in place

20 17 Ethiopia 26 Underdeveloped financial system lacking security exchange and corporate bond market

Score across all pillars, max = 100. The second edition of the index adds three new countries (Angola, Cameroon and Senegal). The scope for direct comparison
of countries’ position in the index between 2017 and 2018 is therefore limited.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Morocco

Building Africa’s
financial markets
41 40 66 65 65 21

The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index evaluates financial

market development in 20 countries, as well as highlighting
economies with clearest growth prospects. The aim is to show
Senegal
not just present positions but also how economies can improve
market frameworks to meet yardsticks for investor access and
sustainable growth. The Index assesses countries according to
six pillars: market depth; access to foreign exchange; tax and
regulatory environment and market transparency; capacity of
local investors; macroeconomic opportunity; and enforceability 45 53 64 21 50 30
of financial contracts, collateral positions and insolvency
frameworks.
In addition to quantitative analysis, OMFIF gained additional
insights by surveying over 50 policy-makers and top executives Ivory Coast
from financial institutions operating across the 20 countries,
including banks, investors, securities exchanges, central banks,
regulators, audit and accounting firms and international financial
and development institutions. Continued on p.10 >>

40 66 67 14 51 26

Overall pillar scores max = 100

Pillar 1: Pillar 2: Pillar 3: Pillar 4: Pillar 5:
Market Access to foreign Market transparency, Capacity of Macroeconomic
depth exchange tax and regulatory local investors opportunity
environment
South Africa 100 Kenya 93 Nigeria 94 South Africa 95 South Africa 75
Nigeria 66 South Africa 91 South Africa 94 Morocco 65 Egypt 71
Mauritius 56 Uganda 83 Rwanda 90 Botswana 64 Namibia 70
Ghana 55 Botswana 79 Mauritius 89 Namibia 56 Botswana 69
Botswana 48 Zambia 77 Botswana 78 Nigeria 50 Morocco 65
Zambia 48 Seychelles 75 Ghana 71 Seychelles 49 Kenya 65
Senegal 45 Namibia 72 Tanzania 70 Kenya 33 Uganda 63
Kenya 44 Ivory Coast 66 Kenya 70 Egypt 30 Mauritius 63
Namibia 43 Cameroon 62 Ivory Coast 67 Cameroon 29 Ethiopia 62
Uganda 43 Ghana 58 Morocco 66 Angola 29 Seychelles 61
Egypt 42 Nigeria 53 Senegal 64 Senegal 21 Nigeria 59
Morocco 41 Senegal 53 Uganda 60 Tanzania 19 Tanzania 58
Ivory Coast 40 Mauritius 52 Namibia 57 Mauritius 18 Angola 57
Mozambique 38 Morocco 40 Zambia 56 Mozambique 17 Ghana 57
Tanzania 35 Egypt 37 Angola 52 Ivory Coast 14 Rwanda 56
Angola 29 Tanzania 36 Mozambique 49 Rwanda 14 Cameroon 55
Cameroon 28 Rwanda 35 Egypt 45 Zambia 14 Ivory Coast 51
Seychelles 24 Ethiopia 30 Cameroon 45 Ghana 13 Senegal 50
Rwanda 21 Mozambique 29 Seychelles 26 Uganda 13 Mozambique 50
Ethiopia 10 Angola 29 Ethiopia 22 Ethiopia 10 Zambia 44

8 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

Egypt
KEY
Pillar 1 Market depth
Pillar 2 Access to foreign exchange
Pillar 3 Market transparency, tax and
regulatory environment 42 37 45 30 71 24

Pillar 4 Capacity of local investors

Pillar 5 Macroeconomic opportunity
Ethiopia
Pillar 6 Legality and enforceability of standard
financial markets master agreements

Nigeria
Uganda 10 30 22 10 62 23

Cameroon

66 53 94 50 59 42
43 83 60 13 63 33 Kenya
Ghana Rwanda
28 62 45 29 55 30

44 43 70 33 65 83
55 58 71 13 57 74 21 35 90 14 56 77 Tanzania

Seychelles
Pillar 6:
Legality and enforceability of Angola
standard financial markets Zambia
master agreements 35 36 70 19 58 38
South Africa 100
Mauritius 94 24 75 26 49 61 32
Kenya 83
Zambia 78 29 29 52 29 57 10 Mozambique
Rwanda 77 48 77 56 14 44 78

Ghana 74
Botswana 52
Botswana
Namibia 43 Namibia
Nigeria 42 38 29 49 17 50 32
Tanzania 38
Uganda 33
Seychelles 32
Mozambique 32 48 79 78 64 69 52
Senegal 30 43 72 57 56 70 43

Cameroon 30 Mauritius
South Africa
Ivory Coast 26
Egypt 24
Ethiopia 23
Morocco 21
Angola 10
56 52 89 18 63 94
100 91 94 95 75 100
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 9
The report finds that:


Countries are progressing and regulatory environment’. market growth and development’,
with policies that support the according to survey respondents.

The greatest area for improvement
development of financial markets
for the continent remains the 
International financial reporting
across the continent. South
‘capacity of local investors’. standards are required for domestic
Africa’s ‘twin peaks’ strategy for companies in 17 out of the 20
Excluding the top-five scorers,
improving financial regulation and countries in the index. Both Ivory
the remaining countries average a
Mozambique’s ‘financial sector Coast and Mozambique have
score of just 22 in Pillar 4. Survey
development strategy’ stand out transitioned from ‘permitted but not
respondents highlighted that the
among the frameworks introduced required’ to ‘required’ in the space of
lack of knowledge and expertise
over the past year. Such initiatives a year.
of pension fund trustees and
have boosted performance for the
other asset owners hinders the Only South Africa, Nigeria and
index as a whole.


development of new financial Namibia use the Master Agreement


While year-on-year comparisons products, by reducing their demand of the International Swaps and
can be problematic given the for more sophisticated assets and Derivatives Association, the Global
introduction of three new countries strategies to diversify returns. Master Repurchase Agreement
to the group (see Methodology Investor education is a major and the Global Master Securities
on p.38-39 for more information), component of these countries’ Lending Agreement, making them
some broad trends can be noted: financial development frameworks. more prepared to drive product
Kenya, Morocco and the Seychelles innovation and growth in the

‘Market transparency, tax and
have improved their scores across derivatives market. Other countries
regulatory environment’ and
the index, while those of Mauritius, aiming to attract outside investment
‘macroeconomic opportunity’ are the
Namibia and Tanzania have must look at encouraging financial
highest-ranking pillars. They are also
deteriorated. institutions to adopt international
the ones with the smallest degree of

South Africa continues to lead variation among countries. Nigeria’s standard master agreements.
the index, supported by strong score has jumped considerably, Increasing the size and volume of
financial market infrastructure and reflecting improvements in intraregional transactions can be a
a robust legal framework. However, administrative efficiency of step towards wider use of these.
its macroeconomic performance has the tax system, as well as the 
Foreign exchange liquidity remains
worsened. Additionally, it no longer implementation of tax incentives low in Africa, with just three
tops the index across all six pillars, and exemptions for capital markets countries (South Africa, Kenya and
having been overtaken by Kenya on activities. In contrast, Uganda’s Ghana) recording interbank foreign
‘access to foreign exchange’ and by above-average withholding tax exchange turnover above $20bn.
Nigeria in ‘market transparency, tax rate and other policies ‘discourage But markets are becoming more

10 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

Acknowledgements

Absa Group Limited

Jeff Gable, Chief Economist
open. The central banks of Nigeria, George Asante, Head of Markets (Africa ex. SA)
Morocco and Egypt are taking steps Garth Klintworth, Global Head of Markets
to liberalise their exchange rates,
while Kenya, the Seychelles and OMFIF
Zambia are relaxing capital controls. Danae Kyriakopoulou, Chief Economist and Head of Research
Ben Robinson, Deputy Head of Research

Overall liquidity is generally low,
Bhavin Patel, Economist
with 10 countries having equity
Kat Usita, Economist
market turnover of less than 10%
Max Roch, Research and Policy Analyst
of market capitalisation, and 15
Pierre Ortlieb, Research Assistant
countries having bond turnover
of less than 10% of outstanding
bonds. However, policies to improve
market depth and activity are The team consulted more than 50 policy-makers, regulators and
market practitioners across African financial markets in writing this
being implemented. Online trading
report, whom we thank for their views and opinions. Although some
platforms and the development of
requested anonymity, we thank the following for their views and
derivatives products have improved opinions:
Nigeria’s performance.
Sheila Abrahams, Policy and Regulation Consultant, Johannesburg Stock

Liberalising financial structures Exchange
and pursuing greater integration
Sunil Benimadhu, Chief Executive, Stock Exchange of Mauritius
with global markets can have
Enid Busingye, Equity Sales Trader, SBG Securities, Stanbic Bank, Uganda
disruptive effects in the short term.
South Africa’s open and highly Jacqueline Irving, Senior Sector Economist, Sector Economics and
Development Impact Department, International Finance Corporation,
liquid foreign exchange market
World Bank Group
has exposed it to capital outflows,
George Kwatia, Tax Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers Ghana
reflecting’ concerns about the
country’s macroeconomic trajectory. Vipin Mahabirsingh, Managing Director, Central Depository
& Settlement, Mauritius
However, supporting liberalisation
and openness is necessary to help Peter Moses, Research Analyst, Cordros Capital, Nigeria
the continent transition, diversify Anica Nerlich, Financial Analyst, Global Macro and Market Research
and develop. Survey respondents Department, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group
highlighted the importance of a Rui Gonçalves Oliveira, Head of Asset Management, Banco Fomento
gradual and coordinated approach to Angola
developing financial markets. Isaac Sekitoleko, Senior Planning and Risk Officer, Capital Markets
Authority, Uganda
Nonde Sichilima, Manager Market Supervision, Securities and Exchange
Commission, Zambia
Madelein Smith, Managing Director, Namibia Equity Brokers
Kaodi Ugoji, Associate Executive Director, Corporate Development, FMDQ
OTC Securities, Nigeria

We also thank individuals from the following institutions:

International Finance Corporation, Africa Finance Corporation, Bank
of West African States, Bank of Uganda, Bank of Mauritius, Mauritius
Commercial Bank, Orbit Securities, Johannesburg Stock Exchange,
the Nigerian and Ghanaian Securities and Exchange Commissions,
Grant Thornton, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 11

Pillar 1:
Market depth
33°55’51”S | 18°51’16”E
12 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Regional effort to boost listings and liquidity
African countries are implementing policies to bolster regional stock market
integration and encourage expansion. However, low liquidity, few prospects for new
listings and lack of product diversity present significant obstacles to capital market
growth across the continent.

Figure 1.1: Direct market access improves Nigeria’s score

Ranking of Pillar 1 categories, max = 500 (LHS) Harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS)

500 100

450 90

400 80

350 70

300 60

250 50

200 40

150 30

100 20

50 10

0 0
South Africa

Seychelles
Botswana

Ivory Coast

Ethiopia
Senegal

Egypt

Tanzania
Mauritius
Nigeria

Kenya

Angola
Zambia

Rwanda
Mozambique
Uganda
Namibia

Cameroon
Morocco
Ghana

Product diversity Size of markets Liquidity

Depth Primary dealer system Score (RHS)

Sources: National securities exchanges, national central banks, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS)
provide average scores for the indicators within each category. For full list of indicators, see Methodology on p.38-39. The
harmonised score (RHS) is the average of all indicators across all categories, giving a total pillar score.
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 13
Deep and liquid capital markets are which other securities can be priced. turnover of less than 10%. Overbearing
fundamental to supporting economic According to a multilateral financial or inadequate regulation and oversight
growth, creating domestic investment institution operating in Kenya, ‘Instead of capital markets play a major role.
opportunities and attracting foreign of issuance of a few large bonds in key Regulators in one southern African
and local capital. Pillar 1 measures this maturities that could provide good country reported they ‘do not have full
by looking at market capitalisation and reference points, the primary market capacity to supervise the securities
product diversity. The average market consists of many small-sized bonds business due to shortage of staff’.
capitalisation of the 20 countries concentrated in the short end of the
Stringent, inflexible and outdated
covered by the index is just 56% of yield curve.’ Short-term treasury bills
regulation adds significantly to
GDP; even this low figure masks large account for around 40% of all local
costs. This makes it less attractive
variations between countries. currency debt in Kenya. This makes it
for companies to list. ‘Cultivating
Only three countries (South Africa, harder to build a broader market. a pipeline of new prospective
Botswana and Ghana) have a market Secondary markets are generally issuers remains a stumbling block,’
capitalisation greater than 100% fragmented and illiquid, hindering according to survey respondents in
of GDP, while in 14 countries it is transparency and price formation. This Kenya. Respondents in all countries
lower than 50%. Ethiopia lacks a is reflected in low turnover figures for highlighted this as a concern, even
securities exchange, apart from one bonds and equities. Ten countries have in relatively advanced markets like
for commodities. There are no equities total bond market turnover of less than South Africa, where local financial
listed on Angola’s exchange, and both 10%, and 15 countries have equity firms complain ‘there are very few new
Cameroon and Mozambique have a entrants’ and that the main issuers are
market capitalisation of less than 5% ‘the normal suspects’.
of GDP. South Africa is the only country
Thin secondary markets
where the total value of listed equities
is more than $100bn, at $1.1tn. This encourages buy-and-hold
strategies, hindering secondary market
Almost all countries (except Angola,
liquidity. There were no trades in
Cameroon and Ethiopia) have some
corporate bonds in Zambia, Uganda,
form of corporate bond market. These,
Rwanda, Namibia, Egypt, Cameroon
however, are typically small. Excluding
Figure 1.2: Market and Angola over the last 12 months
outstanding, listed on exchanges, $bn
Total sovereign and corporate bonds

South Africa, with more than $40bn

size and liquidity at least. This is because of the lack of
worth of listed corporate bonds, the
Total turnover in bond market,

active market makers and investors

average value is just $707m. Total
% of market capitalisation
Total turnover of equities,

holding on to assets that are scarce,

listed government bonds outvalue
Market capitalisation,

% bonds outstanding

according to respondents.
corporate bonds by around six-to-one,
at $313bn against $54bn. While most countries have a
primary dealer system in place for
% of GDP

Given the relatively small volume of

government bonds, the value of
outstanding securities, trading values
‘horizontal repo’ (transactions between
are generally low, with a lack of market South Africa 316 40 294 203.3 commercial banks) is low, resulting
makers and investors tending to buy Botswana 228 1 8 1.4 in an inactive market. The lack of
bonds and holding them to maturity. Ghana 118 1 53 46.5
centralised collection of data on these
Excluding South Africa, which has Mauritius 91 5 5 0.9
Senegal 64 4 1 5.3
transactions means the total value of
a bond turnover of almost 300% of
Morocco 57 11 26 0.8 horizontal repo is unclear. However,
market capitalisation, the average
Rwanda 38 1 2 0.2 beyond South Africa and Nigeria (with
value of traded bonds to those Kenya 31 7 40 12.4 average daily turnover of around
outstanding was just 20% between July Uganda 29 0 0 2.2 $6.5bn and $300m, respectively), all
2017-July 2018. For all countries in Ivory Coast 26 4 1 5.3
other markets are largely inactive. High
the index, the average value of traded Zambia 24 2 26 5.5
Namibia 22 2 2 2.7
costs, unclear property rights and lack
equities to market capitalisation over
Egypt 20 36 6 43.8 of information are some of the reasons
those 12 months was even lower, at
Tanzania 19 2 12 4.4 cited by survey respondents for this
6.4%. Seychelles 18 1 5 0.2 low uptake.
Domestic limitations Nigeria 10 10 126 23.8
Mozambique 4 1 4 0.8 Some national policies aim to
Structural issues contribute to the Cameroon 1 0 2 0.5 address these shortcomings.
low level of African capital market Angola 0 0 56 7.5 Telecommunications and mining
development. Many countries lack Ethiopia - - - - companies in Tanzania are required
a benchmark yield curve for liquid, Sources: Thomson Reuters, National Stock Exchanges, to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock
African Securities Exchanges Association, OMFIF analysis
long-dated government bonds against Exchange and float 25% of their shares

14 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

to local investors, adding substantially mining and energy. ‘Secondary markets
to market capitalisation. However,
local investors often lack the capacity
Market infrastructure is also improving. are generally
The South African Reserve Bank has set
to guarantee a full take-up, as in the
up an electronic trading platform for
fragmented and
case of Vodacom in Tanzania and MTN
in Ghana. Other countries require
primary dealers in an effort to improve illiquid, hindering
domestic institutional investors to hold
liquidity and transparency in the transparency and
government bond market. There are
large amounts of their portfolios in
plans to expand this to other market price formation. This
local assets, boosting demand. As an
example, new rules require insurance participants and for other securities, is reflected in low
and pension funds in Namibia to invest including corporate bonds.
turnover figures for
a minimum of 45% of their assets in
domestic securities by October 2018.
Nigeria has introduced online trading
platforms that allow investors to
bonds and equities.
Improvements in capital market execute trades on their own during Ten countries have
development trading hours. Direct market access, total bond market
whereby institutional investors can
Several countries are implementing trade without passing their mandates
turnover of less than
policies to encourage capital market through brokers, is another important 10%, and 15 countries
growth. Ghana, Kenya, South Africa
and the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs
step. The introduction of electronic have equity turnover
initial public offerings and progress
Mobilières (the stock exchange for towards derivatives trading will deepen of less than 10%.’
eight West African countries) are the Nigerian market over coming years.
lowering barriers to entry for small Automated trading, which has already
firms to try to expand the pipeline
been introduced in Uganda, Rwanda
of new listed companies. One way of
and other countries, will also boost
achieving this is the introduction of
activity.
an alternative market for small and
medium-sized enterprises, which Regional integration
can act as an ‘incubator’ for these
Many national exchanges in Africa
companies before they list on the main
are small, illiquid and inefficient, and
board.
local investor capacity is often limited.
Rwanda, Botswana and Ghana are Therefore, fostering closer integration
among the countries introducing between national exchanges, or
measures to bring companies into the creating and strengthening regional
formal sector and to encourage them ones, is an important area of focus.
to list on alternative exchanges. This
Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and the
long-term approach requires providing
regional BRVM are exploring closer
significant education and training to
alignment between their exchanges
companies about financial markets and
to allow brokers from each to trade
the benefits of listing. Education is one
of the principle areas of focus for all directly on any of the other bourses.
countries in this index. This is being considered through
the West African Capital Markets
Creating new products that are Integration programme.
attractive to local and international
investors is another key focus. A committee of stock exchanges
Ghana plans to introduce real estate from the 16 countries that comprise
investment trusts on the exchange the Southern African Development
by the end of 2018, according to the Community is pursuing capacity-
country’s Securities and Exchange building initiatives to stimulate
Commission. Sukuk bonds are being cross-border trades. This includes
developed in Nigeria, the West African harmonising listing requirements and
Economic and Monetary Union, improving data dissemination to attract
Mauritius and Kenya, among others. local and international investment. In
The BRVM is targeting 16 new sukuk July 2018, finance ministers from SADC
listings by 2020 to raise finance across countries approved the centralisation
a range of sectors including telecoms, of secondary trading of government
finance, agribusiness, construction, securities on their exchanges.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 15

Pillar 2:
Access to foreign exchange
31.6295° N | 7.9811° W
16 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
On the path towards liberalisation
Economies are becoming more open as central banks take steps to liberalise exchange
rates and relax capital controls. Egypt and Nigeria show progress, but South Africa’s
experience highlights the need for active management of vulnerabilities resulting from
open markets.

Figure 2.1: Volatile capital flows cost South Africa top spot
Ranking of individual categories, max=100 (LHS); harmonised score, max=100 (RHS)

400 100

350 90
80
300
70
250 60
200 50

150 40
30
100
20
50 10
0 0
Ethiopia
Seychelles
Botswana

Mauritius
Namibia
Kenya

Nigeria

Egypt
Ghana
Uganda

Senegal

Morocco

Tanzania

Rwanda
South Africa

Zambia

Ivory Coast

Angola
Cameroon

Mozambique

Official exchange rate reporting standard Capital controls

Interbank foreign exchange turnover Total portfolio investment flows to reserves
Pillar 2 overall score (RHS)

Sources: International Monetary Fund, national central banks, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS)
provide rankings for the exchange rate reporting standard, capital controls, interbank foreign exchange turnover and
the total portfolio investment flows to reserves. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’
indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 17
Given their relatively restricted Strategies for boosting interbank to top the list with 44%, from around
sources of domestic capital, African foreign exchange liquidity 36% last year.
financial markets are highly reliant on
South Africa’s experience highlights Foreign reserves have been steady
foreign investment. This is especially
the risks of open capital markets. in most index economies since 2012,
pronounced against a background
With the US Federal Reserve raising with some exceptions. Oil-dependent
of improving growth in advanced
interest rates, pressures on emerging Nigeria and Angola have suffered from
economies and continuing challenges
markets are high. Africa, home to many weak commodity prices over the past
across emerging markets.
commodity-exporting economies, is few years, and have drawn on foreign
Pillar 2 measures some of the factors especially exposed. Foreign exchange reserves to defend their currencies.
that determine markets’ potential liquidity as measured by the amount Between 2012-17, Angola’s reserves
attractiveness to international of foreign exchange traded in the fell by $14bn (45%), and Nigeria’s fell
investors. These range from the level interbank market is low across the by $7bn (15%). Conversely, Egypt,
of capital controls and exchange rate continent, making this one of the key Morocco and Mauritius have seen
reporting standards that define the differentiating factors for variation in strong growth in reserves.
ease with which investors can access countries’ scores in this pillar.
them, to the level of foreign exchange The case of Egypt is the most
The most active foreign exchange impressive; reserves almost tripled
liquidity that affects investors’ ability
market is in South Africa, with more between 2012-17, growing by $22bn.
to deploy and repatriate capital.
than $1.2tn annual turnover over Its reserves have reached record levels
The need to manage volatility resulting 2017, according to central bank data. in 2018, aided by a $4bn Eurobond
from openness is also addressed in the Kenya comes second with around sale in January that helped provide a
pillar, as measured by central banks’ $34bn and Ghana follows with cash cushion and by setting up the
ability to meet demand for currency $29bn, a significant increase from ‘Egypt Fund’ in July to help manage the
by looking at the ratio of net portfolio last year’s $18bn. Morocco, Nigeria country’s sovereign wealth.
flows to reserves. and Uganda also have strong levels of
turnover above $10bn. Beyond these Towards a more open environment
Kenya earns the highest marks in
countries, foreign exchange turnover is Despite the short-term risks arising
this pillar, a significant improvement
relatively low. Some states are taking from open markets, underdeveloped
from ranking sixth last year. The
steps to improve the environment foreign exchange markets can be
relaxation of capital controls boosted
for foreign exchange transactions. sources of instability and obstacles
its performance, as did improvement
In 2017, Mozambique introduced its to long-term development. Investors
of the country’s net portfolio flows to
financial sector development strategy, who participated in OMFIF’s survey
reserves ratio. South Africa has fallen
which approves the standards and consider a gradual opening of capital
to second place this year. While South
procedures for foreign exchange markets underpinned by solid market
Africa is top in the interbank foreign
transactions, and changes processes infrastructure as an important step
exchange turnover, capital controls
regarding their registration and in strengthening Africa’s financial
and official exchange rate reporting
authorisation. markets. The exchange rate regime
categories, it suffers from a fairly high
ratio of net portfolio flows to reserves. The index rewards countries with and degree of openness to the flow
Over 2017, it experienced portfolio a high level of foreign exchange of capital are crucial in shaping the
investment outflows of $16.4bn, liquidity. However, while this can foreign investment environment.
against $50.5bn of reserves held by be an important element of well- Of the 20 index economies, five have
the South African Reserve Bank. functioning and resilient markets, it a fixed regime, five an intermediate
is also important that central banks regime, and 10 have freely floating
South Africa has the highest daily
observe prudent reserve management currencies. Among those with fixed
foreign exchange turnover to annual
strategies and can cope with sudden regimes, Ivory Coast and Senegal
GDP ratio among emerging markets,
capital outflows. In response to this use the West African CFA franc, and
at 17.1%. This is significantly above
need, index countries bolstered their Cameroon uses the Central African CFA
average and around five times higher
collective reserves to $233.4bn in
than that recorded in other Brics franc, both of which are pegged to the
2017 from $192.6bn in 2012.
countries (Brazil, Russia, India and euro. The remaining two, Botswana’s
China). In the light of global trade More than half the reserves were held pula and the Namibian dollar, are fixed
tensions, a slowdown in China and by three of the continent’s largest to the South African rand as part of the
an unorthodox policy mix in the US, economies: South Africa, Nigeria and Common Monetary Area. Intermediate
being one of the most liquid emerging Egypt. However, reserves as a share regimes exhibit greater variation, from
markets has created vulnerabilities of GDP are highest in Africa’s smaller managed floats (Ethiopia), to floating
in South Africa, as was demonstrated but more developed economies. Over systems with bands (Morocco, Angola)
during this year’s emerging market 2017, this metric grew substantially in to yet other arrangements closer to
sell-off. Mauritius, which overtook Botswana flexible rates (Egypt, Rwanda).

18 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

However, even those with floating to repatriate profits. Capital inflows Over the last year, Ivory Coast and
currencies do not always exhibit full also grew, as evidenced by the demand Ethiopia moved towards single
flexibility in movement of capital, and for January 2018’s $4bn Eurobond sale, exchange rates, boosting their score
many index countries display high which was three times oversubscribed. in this pillar. The presence of multiple
degrees of capital controls. These exchange rates (often a mix of official
The Central Bank of Nigeria has taken
include Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, and unofficial rates) can impede asset
steps to improve liquidity and reduce
Morocco, Mozambique, Rwanda and valuations and exacerbate exchange
Tanzania. The degree of capital controls vulnerabilities arising from the floating
rate risks. The quality and frequency
has a relatively high correlation with of the naira. In April 2017 the CNB
of exchange rate reporting also plays
countries’ performance in the index. introduced the ‘investor and exporter
an important role. Exchange rates are
foreign exchange window’ to support
Exchange rate regimes and capital reported daily and in a timely manner
exchange rate flexibility and the
controls in index countries have in most index countries, with some
convergence of different exchange rate
remained broadly steady – such exceptions.
levels on the parallel market. This is
systems change rarely. Still, there have reported to have significantly boosted Against the backdrop of improving
been some developments indicating a portfolio inflows. financial market infrastructure to
move towards greater openness. facilitate foreign capital inflows,
Nigeria’s economic structure,
The National Bank of Angola in January some countries are taking measures
characterised by an external sector
2018 replaced its fixed exchange to attract investors. The Bourse
dependent on basic commodities,
regime with a floating exchange Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières
makes it an exceptional case. An
system with bands. Bank Al Maghrib, (the stock exchange for eight West
exchange rate determined by market
Morocco’s central bank, also moved African countries) organised several
forces could be highly volatile in this
towards a more flexible regime. In investment days with three roadshows
structure, stressing the importance of
2017 the Central Bank of Nigeria in London, Johannesburg and New
diversification policies to complement
decided to float the naira (though York over 2018. But, as analysis in
many restrictions still apply), while the moves towards openness.
Pillars 3 and 4 shows, the presence of
Central Bank of Egypt did the same to Gaps in exchange rate reporting are a local investor base and a strong tax
the Egyptian pound in 2016. Kenya, not unique to Nigeria. Ghana and and regulatory regime are also crucial
the Seychelles and Zambia have all Angola also suffer from dual and to engendering confidence in foreign
taken steps to lower capital controls multiple exchange rates, respectively. investors to deploy their capital.
over the past year.
Greater flexibility has raised the
possibility of heightened vulnerability Alternative option: Portfolio flows to reserves
and volatility. The more flexible the Figure 2.2: Mauritius and Egypt most vulnerable to capital outflows
regime, the greater the impact of Net portfolio
Net portfolio investment
investment to reserves,to
% reserves, %
market forces in determining the
exchange rate. A move to a new regime 160
can also cause sharp corrections in
other economic indicators. In Egypt, 140
the liberalisation of the pound 120
resulted in a sharp depreciation that
led to soaring inflation, especially in 100
commodities. Some products recorded
80
price rises of more than 50%.
Two years later, the situation is more 60
stable. While the pound has halved in 40
value since the float, its level has been
steady for around a year. Additionally, 20
the move towards a floating pound, 0 0
0
together with the gradual lifting of
Zambia

Ethiopia
Uganda

Rwanda
Ivory Coast
Mauritius
Egypt

Nigeria

Namibia

Cameroon

Angola
Ghana

Seychelles

Botswana

Senegal
South Africa

Kenya

Morocco

Tanzania
Mozambique

capital controls (which included the

lifting of caps on foreign exchange
transfers), has bolstered dollar trading
on the interbank market. This is a
significant improvement compared
with previous dollar shortages that Source: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OM
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OMFIF analysis
created problems for investors wishing

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 19

Pillar 3:
Market transparency, tax and
regulatory environment
24°32’47° S | 15°19’47° E
20 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Reforms spur improvements in regulation and transparency
Several countries are creating a more transparent and well-regulated market,
supported by an improving tax environment. This is vital for attracting foreign
investment, encouraging domestic participation and aiding market development.

Figure 3.1: Nigeria boasts most favourable market environment

Ranking of individual categories, max = 800; harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS)

800 100

700 90
80
600
70
500 60
400 50

300 40
30
200
20
100 10
0 0
Seychelles
Mauritius

Ethiopia
South Africa

Namibia

Egypt
Nigeria

Botswana

Kenya
Ghana

Uganda
Ivory Coast
Tanzania

Morocco

Senegal
Rwanda

Zambia

Angola

Cameroon
Mozambique

Financial stability regulation Reporting and accounting standards

Tax environment Financial information availability
Market development Corporate action governance structure
Protection of minority of shareholders Existence of credit rating
Pillar 3 Harmonised score (RHS)

Sources: Bank for International Settlements, International Financial Reporting Standards, Deloitte International Accounting
Standard plus, World Bank Ease of Doing Business, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, ABSA, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual
category totals (LHS) provide rankings for financial stability regulation, tax environment, market development, minority
shareholder protection, reporting/accounting standards, financial information availability, corporate action governance
structure, existence of credit rating. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’ indicators, and is
used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p38-39.
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 21
Pillar 3 addresses improvements to the survey, said the regulatory transactions lack a framework for
in Africa’s regulatory and tax environment is heading in the right exemptions. This view was reiterated
environments, which play a critical role direction, citing the use of simple by respondents in the Ugandan
in developing an attractive domestic and relatively low tax rates applied to securities market.
capital market. A handful of countries returns on some investments. They
Corporate governance, protection
in Africa have focused on regulation also noted that government bonds
of minority shareholders and quality
to bolster market development and for non-residents are not subject to
financial reporting are prerequisites
attract foreign investors. income tax. However, a respondent
for capital market development.
Nigeria and South Africa score highly from another Big Four firm highlighted
To support price discovery, timely,
in this pillar. The former has made room for improvement, saying ‘the tax
accurate and relevant data must be
changes to its tax system which, regime is good for multinationals, but
available. International credit ratings
according to the central bank, will for smaller companies with second-tier
also aid transparency.
‘broaden the tax base while improving audit firms there may be questions.
the efficiency of tax administration The tax system is reasonably Rwanda fares well in terms of
and regulation’. A large securities sophisticated, but I believe it actually transparency and regulatory
firm in Nigeria noted that ‘ongoing inhibits growth. It should encourage strength, receiving the highest score
amendments are likely to improve the more foreign investment.’ possible in the index for protection
system’. Capital market transactions of minority shareholders. However,
Uganda, which scores low on the there are discrepancies between
are exempt from withholding taxes, tax indicator, has not undertaken
while there are more than 20 tax the official rules and regulations on
significant reforms. Public sector transparency and the reality of their
treaties and agreements on double respondents noted that the current
taxation with third countries. implementation. The country also lacks
system’s structure discourages any corporate credit ratings from the
Government bonds are subject to a tax
market growth and development. main agencies, and scores relatively
holiday on income earned.
The withholding tax on government low for tax environment. Mauritius
A senior figure in a Big Four securities is 20%, against a regional has 27 corporate ratings but only one
accountancy firm in Ghana, responding average of 15%, and capital market sovereign rating.
Ensuring regulatory consistency
Figure 3.2: Only 10 index countries have corporate ratings
The number of corporates rated by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Unlisted countries scored zero. In South Africa there is the perceived
risk of ‘fragmentation’ of trading on
0 the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
Morocco 7 due to the introduction of four new
1 3
Egypt domestic exchanges since 2016. The
1 0 country is, however, in the closing
stages of implementing a ‘twin peaks’
regulatory framework to strengthen
capital markets and aid their
1 development. This model separates
regulatory functions between a
1 16 1 Nigeria
Ghana 0 regulator that performs prudential
1 4 supervision and one that performs
Kenya market conduct supervision.
1 0
Angola Instead of having a separate regulator
0 1 for banks, South Africa’s new structure
0 creates two ‘peaks’, ‘prudential
1 regulation’ and ‘good conduct’. The
Namibia 1 0 0 Botswana Mauritius legislation is bolstered by the launch of
the Financial Sector Conduct Authority,
5 0 15 which has a broader scope than its
precursor, the Financial Services Board.
10 6
6 As one senior South African regulator
South Africa 33

22 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 14

said, ‘The financial sector will be made
safer through a tougher prudential
Implementing international financial
standards at too early a stage can
‘Creating a
and market conduct framework. Many hamper expansion by raising costs supportive
of these standards are in line with and complicating the transition. regulatory
international commitments agreed Creating a supportive regulatory
via the G20 and other processes.’ environment requires sensitivity environment
Regulatory strength and consistency and flexibility, enabling market requires sensitivity
are essential for creating confidence
and motivating new participants,
growth by ensuring regulations are
not excessively burdensome, while
and flexibility,
especially foreign investors, to enter maintaining financial stability and best enabling market
the market. practices. Countries do not always growth by ensuring
get the balance right, but those that
Financial reporting
do adjust their policies accordingly regulations are
Financial reporting levels vary across tend to fare well. Nigeria, which has not excessively
the continent, though there have been
widespread improvements over recent
been criticised by survey respondents
for heavy regulation, has made a
burdensome, while
years. International financial reporting concerted effort to alleviate the maintaining financial
standards are required for domestic constraints on small and medium-sized stability and best
public companies in 17 out of the 20 enterprise financing by expanding
countries in the index. Both Ivory Coast the parameters for what constitutes practices.’
and Mozambique have transitioned collateral for credit, for example. It has
from ‘permitted but not required’ to also improved its derivatives trading
‘required’ in the space of a year. Of framework.
the three countries where IFRS are Despite this need for flexibility, a
not required – Ethiopia, Egypt and robust regulatory environment is vital
the Seychelles – only the latter two to attracting foreign investors, a point
have generally accepted accounting repeated by many survey respondents.
principles in place. International investors face higher
Technological limitations and issues costs and greater uncertainty when
with human resources hamper they have to follow different sets of
institutions’ ability to report in an requirements across different markets.
effective and timely manner. As one This can dissuade investors from
central bank official said, ‘Reporting entering or increasing their presence
skills and tools are just evolving, in these locations. Attracting foreign
data rendition processes are in some investors is essential for facilitating
cases manual, and regulators are growth, increasing access to credit and
overwhelmed by manpower limitations supporting business in less developed
and oversight tools.’ markets.

Nevertheless, financial stability Investor diversification and the ability

regulations have improved significantly to attract foreign capital are critical
in many jurisdictions. Last year for providing a stable base for capital
only seven countries in the index markets. The presence of foreign
were implementing the Basel III investors can, in turn, help influence
international regulatory banking policy-makers to undertake reforms.
framework. This year there are 12, The need for participation of local
with Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia, Egypt investors is equally important in
and Ghana joining the ranks of the creating a larger and more liquid
highest scorers. Angola and Senegal, market, and can provide stability
new additions to the index, have during periods of international
implemented Basel II. Cameroon and capital flight. Achieving this investor
Ethiopia achieve low scores, having mix requires building an attractive
only implemented Basel I. regulatory and tax environment.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 23

Pillar 4:
Capacity of local investors
13° 40’ 53” N | 3° 37’ 04” W
24 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Improving financial inclusion to support domestic growth
Focusing on domestic institutional investor capacity and financial inclusion should
bolster markets, but regulatory restrictions and lack of education hold back broader
advances.

Figure 4.1: South Africa, Nigeria and Morocco have dominant pension/insurance funds
relative to market size
Ranking of individual categories, max = 200; harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS)

200 100

180 90

160 80

140 70

120 60

100 50

80 40

60 30

40 20

20 10

0 0
Cameroon
Namibia

Zambia
Ivory Coast

Rwanda

Uganda

Ethiopia
Mauritius
Nigeria

Angola

Egypt
Botswana

Ghana
Tanzania
Morocco

Senegal

Mozambique
South Africa

Seychelles

Kenya

Pension and insurance assets to domestically listed assets, weighted by asset liquidity
Pension fund assets under management per capita
Pillar 4 Harmonised score (RHS)

Sources: African Development Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, national stock exchanges,
Thomson Reuters. Note: Individual category totals (LHS) provide rankings for pension and insurance assets as a ratio of
domestically listed assets weighted by liquidity, and pension fund assets under management per capita. The harmonised
score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’ indicators, and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6.
More information on p.38-39.
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 25
Domestic institutional investors results in small and relatively inactive Restrictions on the type of assets
across Africa, particularly pension local exchanges. investors can access are prevalent,
funds, are an important part of the with many funds able to invest only
The size of South African pension fund
financial landscape. Better design, in simple products. Lack of expertise
assets per capita, at $5,411, makes
implementation and regulation of of more complex asset classes and
the country an outlier in this sample.
savings institutions has increased strategies among pension fund
Its ratio of total pension and insurance
population coverage and created new trustees and other local investors is
AUM to domestically listed assets is
vehicles for citizens to access capital one factor impeding the growth of
39%. As South Africa’s market is highly
markets. Policies to bolster financial financial markets and new financial
liquid, with equity market turnover of
inclusion have increased the size of products. Survey respondents in
40% and corporate bond turnover of
assets held by local investors, creating Tanzania, Uganda and other countries
106%, it achieves the maximum score
opportunities to develop financial indicated this results in ‘a tendency
of 100 in the index.
products and enhance liquidity. to stick to asset classes that are
Namibia ranks second in Pillar 4, with familiar such as government bonds and
Educational strategies and the
a score of 71. The value of pension equities’.
introduction of mobile money
assets in Namibia was $13.4bn in 2016
infrastructures, as well as improved Expertise of asset owners and
(latest available data). This is lower
pension and investment regulations trustees
than the index average of $20bn, but
over the last decade, have boosted
is high in per capita terms, at $4,135 Respondents in around half the
the assets of domestic institutional
against an average of $974 for the countries in the index emphasised
investors. However, weak commodity
countries tracked in the index. that lack of in-depth expertise
prices and currency depreciations
against a rising dollar have reversed Asset liquidity is an important among pension fund trustees and
this trend somewhat. The value of determinant for scores in Pillar 4. other asset owners as an obstacle to
assets held by pension funds in the Botswana, Namibia and the Seychelles market development. Respondents
20 countries covered by this index all have large domestic institutional in several countries, including
fell by 22% to $401bn in 2016 (the investors relative to domestic listed Botswana and Namibia, said that
latest available data) from $512bn in assets. In addition, there is low despite local investors not having the
2015. This underscores the need for liquidity in the domestic market as necessary knowledge, the existence
multicurrency products to enable risk assets are held by long-term buy- of international investment advisory
diversification. and-hold investors, which has lowered services mitigated this to an extent.

Pension funds must allocate a large these countries’ overall pillar score. However, all respondents in these
proportion of their portfolios towards countries said a lack of expertise
Access to varied products hindered the development of new
the domestic market. In conjunction
with capital restrictions mentioned in Several countries in the index require financial products, by reducing their
Pillar 2, index countries as a whole are local investors to invest a large willingness or ability to invest in more
limited in their diversification strategy. portion of their assets in the domestic complex and ‘adventurous’ assets
market. As discussed in Pillar 1, and strategies while pursuing stable
The scores in Pillar 4 track the capacity returns. This includes Botswana,
Namibian investors are required to
of local institutional investors (pension Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya,
and insurance companies) according invest at least 45% of their assets
in domestic securities. Similarly, Namibia, Senegal and South Africa.
to their per capita assets under
management and the size of their AUM Ugandan investors must allocate most Although South Africa has a
against the total value of domestic of their investments domestically sophisticated capital market,
financial market assets, weighted by or in the region. Given the ‘high risk respondents in the country
liquidity. and poor returns’ associated with emphasised that knowledge and
domestic assets, according to one local expertise is ‘limited to a few very
Low local capacity hinders market regulator, fund performance suffers. large players only’. This results
liquidity and growth in most investors ‘sticking to the
Several countries have relaxed these
vanilla strategies’. Respondents from
Local investor capacity in many African requirements. In April 2018, the
Botswana said the lack of knowledge
countries is low, with pension funds, offshore allocation limits for South
creates ‘a risk-averse mindset among
insurance firms and other investors African funds increased to 30% from
trustees and others towards the more
lacking sizeable AUM. In Ivory Coast, 25% and the allocation to African
complex instruments’.
Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mauritius, investments outside South Africa
Zambia and Senegal, the ratio of to 10% from 5%. This means that In Nigeria, Tanzania and Namibia,
institutional AUM to domestically listed investors may allocate up to 40% of respondents highlighted the
assets is below 20%. This contributes assets outside South Africa, potentially presence of some ‘highly qualified
to low demand for new products and boosting returns. and experienced people’ working

26 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

in professional asset management, funds from domestic investors to
Figure 4.2: On average
despite ‘knowledge of capital markets finance long-term infrastructure and
countries’ local funds are
among the general population’ being other development projects. This can
55% the size of their locally
‘very low’. Yet, due to constraints inhibit overall economic prospects.
listed assets
such as high costs, illiquidity, thin
secondary markets and the small size Financial inclusion Local pension and insurance
fund assets, and total value of
of the domestic economy (in the cases
Achieving sustainable growth across bonds and equities listed
of Namibia and Tanzania), adventurous
the region requires improving financial

capitalisation, $bn
capital market activities are not
literacy. Widening the scope of
attractive. As a result, according to

Pension and

outstanding
Total bonds

and market
assets, $bn
banking services to capture as many

insurance
one Tanzanian securities company,
individuals and small and medium-
‘most small businesses do not
sized enterprises as possible, especially
consider the capital market as a useful South Africa 517.2 1,309.6
women and the rural population, is
way to raise sufficient capital’. Morocco 48.1 63.2
critical to improving financial inclusion.
Botswana 26.0 40.0
Respondents in many countries Better financial education will direct Nigeria 25.2 61.3
also highlighted regulatory issues greater savings towards a country’s Kenya 14.2 36.7
as inhibitors of market growth. One capital market, supporting market Namibia 13.4 5.1
official from a Zambian banking development. Egypt 13.1 89.9
association said ‘even regulators Tanzania 4.5 14.0
‘A vast majority of the adult population Angola 2.5 7.5
are ill-equipped to understand the
in Nigeria has little or no knowledge Ghana 2.4 96.0
complexity of financial markets’, so Uganda 2.3 9.8
of financial market products and
they are unable to encourage market Ivory Coast 1.9 15.8
capital markets in general,’ said a
development and, in many cases, Cameroon 1.6 0.7
representative of the country’s over-
implement harmful rules. Indeed, Senegal 1.2 15.8
the-counter securities exchange. Rwanda 1.1 3.7
Nigerian pension funds are generally
Zambia 1.0 11.7
barred from diversifying into novel South Africa’s newly-created Financial
Ethiopia 0.7 -
products, and there is a limit of Sector Conduct Authority was Mozambique 0.6 1.2
25% for equities and unsecured established to supervise financial Mauritius 0.6 11.3
instruments, according to the central markets and promote financial Seychelles 0.3 0.3
bank. One large securities firm said education. Its consumer education Sources: African Development Bank,
‘regulation discourages investments department holds workshops on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, national securities exchanges,
in complex asset classes, which are financial literacy and investor OMFIF analysis

often perceived as “too risky”’. Insurers education, particularly in rural areas

in the West African Economic and and among groups that have been
Monetary Union, in particular, are excluded from financial services.
restricted from investing in more
Across the region, mobile banking
diverse asset classes.
has helped promote financial services
Mauritius is a notable exception. There in informal sectors of the economy
is a wide range of investment options and unbanked areas. The technology
and relatively ‘strong demand for more and infrastructure supporting mobile ‘Lack of expertise
complex assets, including different banking is being built up. Uganda’s of more complex
types of derivatives products’, National Financial Inclusion Strategy
according to the exchange. 2017-22 aims to lower barriers asset classes and
In countries with a more sophisticated
to financial services and build the strategies among
domestic investor base, such as
infrastructure needed to support the
mobile banking market.
pension fund
Kenya, the main issue is ‘a shortage
Despite recent progress, ‘capital
trustees and other
of investment vehicles tailored to
investor needs’, according to survey markets remain a relatively new local investors
respondents. This hampers pension phenomenon and there is limited is one factor
funds’ ability ‘to fulfil their roles as
contractual savings institutions’, by
expertise in the market for product
development,’ according to one
impeding the
forcing them to ‘overinvest in asset Ugandan securities regulator, echoing growth of financial
classes with maturities that are not sentiment from several countries. ‘This markets and new
well matched to their longer-term hinders participation by the population
liabilities’. It also results in local capital which is not very knowledgeable about financial products.’
markets being unable to raise enough these products.’

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 27

Pillar 5:
Macroeconomic opportunity
17° 30’ 0° S | 48° 30’ 0° E
28 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Policy focus on sustainable and inclusive growth
Economic growth across the region is promising, but maintaining this trajectory and
attracting investors requires attention to infrastructure and trade diversification while
ensuring financial transparency and good governance.

Figure 5.1: Steady growth and financial transparency propel Egypt

Ranking of individual categories, max=700; harmonised score, max=100 (RHS)

800 100

700 90
80
600
70
500 60
400 50

300 40
30
200
20
100 10
0 0
Seychelles
Mauritius
South Africa

Ethiopia
Botswana

Kenya
Namibia

Nigeria
Egypt

Morocco

Ghana

Senegal
Rwanda

Zambia
Uganda

Tanzania

Angola

Ivory Coast
Cameroon

Mozambique

GDP growth Living standards

Growth and absolute export market share Quality of banks
Debt profile Macro data standards
MPC outcomes transparency Budget release
Pillar 5 harmonised score (RHS)

Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, national finance ministries, African Development
Bank, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS) provide rankings for GDP growth, growth and export
market share, debt profile, MPC outcomes transparency, living standards, quality of banks, macro data standards and
budget release. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’ indicators and is used to compile the
total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 29
Growth across African economies The country must also improve its poor financial reporting push Zambia
rebounded to 3.7% in 2017 following export competitiveness – Egypt’s to the bottom of the index. ‘This
a slump to 2.2% the previous year, export market share has fallen by requires a big-picture fix. Zambia
based on data from the International more than 56% over the last five needs to stabilise both politically and
Monetary Fund. However, growth years. economically to encourage foreign
prospects across the region remain investment and lower interest rates,’
With a weak macroeconomic
uneven. according to one large financial
environment, South Africa faces rising
advisory firm in the country.
Pillar 5 evaluates economic financial risks. The country slipped
performance (GDP growth, into recession in 2018 for the first Promoting inclusive growth amid
living standards and export time since 2009 after two consecutive high levels of inequality
competitiveness), financial risks (non- quarters of economic contraction Ensuring that growth is inclusive and
performing loans and external debt earlier this year. When Standard & sustainable is a persistent challenge
ratios) and financial transparency Poor’s downgraded the country’s debt for the region. South Africa enjoys
(demonstrated by availability of data, in late 2017, the rating agency cited one of the highest per capita incomes
open monetary policy communication a growing budget deficit and rising among countries in the index, but it
and the timely release of state government debt as contributing also has the highest level of inequality,
budgets). factors. However, compared to other according to the World Bank.
countries, South Africa’s financial risks
Egypt’s moderate growth, low Egypt’s economic recovery
remain low. Its external debt to GDP
financial risk and clear financial demonstrates the impact of reforms
ratio is 46%, against an average of
reporting boost its score, making it implemented since 2016 following a
more than 51% for index countries. Its
the most improved country for Pillar period of political uncertainty. Earlier
non-performing loan ratio, at 2.8%, is
5. From 12th in last year’s ranking this year, the country received a credit
far below the 10.1% average. It also
among 17 African economies, it is rating upgrade from Standard & Poor’s,
scores highly for transparency.
now second (after South Africa) out of moving to B from B minus. It also
20 countries. Egypt’s GDP per capita Mozambique’s poor score is driven earned a credit outlook boost from
remains modest, requiring more effort by mounting debt and low living Moody’s Investor Service, rising from
to ensure growth is spread out evenly. standards, while weak exports and stable to positive.
Ethiopia has been one of the world’s
fastest growing economies over
the last 10 years. Growth is likely to
Ethiopia andEthiopia
Figure 5.2: Ivory Coast sustained
and Ivory economic
Coast sustained growth,growth,
economic but slowdown expected
decelerate this year, but is expected to
but slowdown expected stay above 6% over the next five years.
Compound annual
Compound annual growth growth rate,
rate, five-year five-year
average and forecastaverage
% and forecast %
One tool to spur growth is
infrastructure. Underdeveloped
14
infrastructure limits productivity,
trade and overall mobility. The African
12
Development Bank estimates that the
10 continent’s infrastructure needs are as
much $170bn per year up to 2025.
8
Insulating export-dependent
countries against external shocks
6
The region’s five largest economies
4 – Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Angola
and Morocco – also have the largest
2
export market shares. However, all of
0 these countries, except for Morocco,
have lost ground over the last five
Senegal

Morocco
Tanzania
Rwanda

Angola
Ivory Coast

Mozambique

Mauritius
Ghana

Botswana
Egypt
Kenya

Seychelles

Namibia
Ethiopia

Uganda
Zambia

Nigeria
South Africa
Cameroon

years, vindicating the Moroccan

government’s focus on industrial
exports. In the same period, resource-
driven exports have strengthened
2012-17 2018-23
the rankings of Ghana, Ivory Coast
Historical average Forecast average and Ethiopia, though each has been
impacted by deteriorating terms of
Sources: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, OMFIF analysis
trade over the last few years.
Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, OMFIF analysis

30 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

Rwanda is one of the first countries to
have felt tangible effects from changes
suffers because of the delayed release
of macroeconomic data. It is the only
‘Underdeveloped
in US trade policy. Among countries country in the index that does not infrastructure
in the index, its export market share
has shrunk by 40.2% over the last five
publish monetary policy committee
communications. In contrast, good
limits
years, and it has the lowest overall data availability in Kenya and Uganda productivity,
export market share. It is likely to
decline further after Washington
help boost their index score. On the
Open Budget Index, an independent
trade and
reinstated tariffs on Rwandan exports. ranking of central government budget overall mobility.
The Continental Free Trade Area aims
to cut tariffs on 90% of intra-African
transparency, South Africa is the top-
scoring country out of 115 nations
The African
goods trade between more than 45 globally, tied with New Zealand, for Development
countries. In the long term, this could
expand the size of regional markets
having an open budget with extensive
available information. Other African Bank estimates
and help insulate Africa from external countries do not perform as strongly; that the
Uganda, the second highest African
shocks. Focusing on the development
of industrial parks and export- state in the ranking, came in at 29th. continent’s
processing zones, as well as education, To attract investment, countries must infrastructure
training and healthcare, will be vital to
boosting trade prospects.
demonstrate robust macroeconomic
fundamentals and good governance.
needs are as
Despite the uptick in oil prices, Open, transparent and detailed much $170bn per
resource-dependent countries like
Angola and Nigeria are exposed to
financial reporting demonstrates that
the region’s financial markets are
year up to 2025.’
significant financial risk. The share of ready to expand. This also requires
non-performing loans in Angola more adherence to international standards
than doubled to 28.8% in 2017 from and frameworks for financial market
13.1% in 2016, though refinancing activities.
assistance extended to problematic
state-owned banks may ease the
burden in coming years. Biggest economies have largest export market shares, but only Morocco is sti
Exchange rate depreciations partly Figure 5.3: Biggest economies have largest export market shares,
Export share market share, % ; 5-year growth in market share value, % (RHS),
explain worsening external debt levels, but only Morocco is still growing
which stood at more than 60% of Export market share,
Compound annual %, (excluding
growth oil);rate,
five-year growth in market
five-year share value,
average and %forecast
(RHS), 2016%
GDP for five countries: Mozambique,
Seychelles, Mauritius, Senegal and 150
Zambia. Mozambique’s ongoing 0.7
debt crisis pushed up its foreign
borrowings to 140.7% of GDP, almost 0.6 100
10 percentage points higher than last
year. Seychelles’ debt burden is also 0.5
creeping up. After decreasing to 98.3% 50
in 2016, the country’s external-debt- 0.4
to-GDP ratio increased to 101.3%.
0.3 0
Transparent reporting bolsters
foreign investor sentiment 0.2
-50
Clear and timely reporting of 0.1
macroeconomic indicators and
monetary policy actions helps build 0 -100
investor confidence. The promising
Morocco
Angola

Senegal
Botswana

Mozambique

Tanzania

Rwanda
Ghana

Ivory Coast

Mauritius

Seychelles
South Africa
Nigeria

Egypt

Zambia

Kenya

Cameroon
Ethiopia

Namibia

Uganda

performance of some countries

in parts of Pillar 5 is held back by
poor performance in others, notably
macroeconomic reporting standards.
Export market share Export share growth (RHS)
Ethiopia’s score, bolstered by its Sources: World Bank Measuring Export Competitiveness, OMFIF analysis
double-digit economic expansion,
Source: World Bank Measuring Export Competitiveness, OMFIF analysis

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 31

Pillar 6:
Legality and enforceability of standard
financial markets master agreements

31.6295° N | 7.9811° W
32 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Strengthening legal frameworks to build confidence
Expanding a market requires demonstrating its maturity through the enforceability of
financial agreements, clarity on property rights and compatibility with international
standards.

Figure 6.1: Most countries still need stronger legal and contractual tools
Ranking of individual categories, max=400; harmonised score, max=100 (RHS)

400 100
350 90
80
300
70
250 60
200 50
150 40
30
100
20
50 10
0 0
Ethiopia
Seychelles
Mozambique
Mauritius

Namibia
Kenya

Egypt
Nigeria
Ghana

Tanzania

Senegal

Morocco
Rwanda

Botswana
South Africa

Uganda
Zambia

Ivory Coast

Angola
Cameroon

Netting position enforcement Collateral position enforcement

Standard Master Capital agreements Insolvency framework
Pillar 6 harmonised score (RHS)

Sources: World Bank Ease of Doing Business, Absa, OMFIF analysis. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of
all categories’ indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 33
Rapid growth in African markets can
provide attractive opportunities to
Agreement and the Global Master
Securities Lending Agreement are
‘Effective
international investors, but volatile each considered in this index. These insolvency
political and regulatory environments agreements were standardised by processes reduce
often discourage new players from international financial associations to
entering. To mitigate risk, strong legal reduce credit and legal risk and provide the likelihood of a
and enforcement frameworks that assurance on property rights. This business failure,
support financial agreements are makes global exchanges and over-the-
counter trading more efficient.
especially for
necessary. The most established African
markets already have such regulations The ISDA master agreement governs
smaller companies
in place, while smaller economies OTC derivatives transactions and is that may be viable
looking to expand are in the process of
establishing and improving them. Pillar
the most widely recognised financial in the long-term
agreement among countries in the
6 assesses the enforceability of financial index. The GMRA and the GMSLA are but encounter
agreements around Africa and their less common. The former was drawn temporary financial
compatability with global standards. up for repurchase agreements, while
the latter was drafted for securities
difficulty.’
Importance of standard agreements for
investor protection lending arrangements. These
agreements standardise definitions More than half the countries in the
Adherence to standard international and contractual terms, reducing the index use ISDA master agreements, but
master agreements signals that likelihood of disputes and providing only South Africa, Nigeria and Namibia
financial markets are mature enough guidance for resolution when also employ GMRA and GSLA. Mauritius
to implement global standards. The necessary. For investors, standard uses GMRA more widely than GMSLA,
Master Agreement of the International agreements add a degree of protection marginally reducing its score on Pillar 6,
Swaps and Derivatives Association, and can reduce the costliness of where it ranks second. In countries, such
the Global Master Repurchase entering a new market. as Rwanda, where standard agreements
are not commonly used, banks may
be using their own non-standard
Figure 6.2: Key financial masters agreements agreements. In most cases, such
ISDA GMRA GMSLA agreements have proved inadequate
when tested in default scenarios.
South Africa Well recognised Well recognised Well recognised
Nigeria Well recognised Well recognised Well recognised Building adequate insolvency regimes
Namibia Well recognised Well recognised Well recognised
Another feature that could minimise
Mauritius Well recognised Well recognised Limited use
uncertainty in relatively unknown
Zambia Well recognised Limited use -
financial markets is the presence of
Uganda Well recognised Limited use -
adequate insolvency frameworks.
Tanzania Well recognised Limited use -
Effective insolvency processes reduce
Kenya Well recognised Limited use -
Ghana Well recognised Limited use -
the likelihood of a business failure,
Botswana Well recognised Limited use - especially for smaller companies
Seychelles Limited use - - that may be viable in the long-term
Senegal Limited use - - but encounter temporary financial
Mozambique Limited use - - difficulty. A good insolvency regime
Cameroon Limited use - - should support struggling firms
Rwanda - - - without encouraging excessively risky
Morocco - - - behaviour, protect contracting parties
Ivory Coast - - - and prevent systemic risk.
Ethiopia - - -
The World Bank evaluates countries’
Egypt - - -
insolvency regimes based on the cost
Angola - - -
and speed of insolvency proceedings
Sources: Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Own non-standard masters agreement used assumed when there is strictly for domestic entities, along with
insufficient recognition of the standard agreement perceived.
quality of judicial processes for

34 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

liquidation and reorganisation. In the
wider economy, flexible and responsive
inflexible to the needs of corporations,
since it offers only one option:
‘The review of the
insolvency frameworks prevent liquidation. Angola is the weakest on this Banking Act is
disruptions that can be caused by the indicator, with creditors of failed ventures intended to improve
closure of businesses, such as creditors unlikely to recover any investment.
losing their investment, employees Botswana has established insolvency
bank resolution and
losing their jobs and reductions in overall processes, but these are relatively crisis management,
output. Countries that perform well on
this indicator, such as South Africa, tend
feeble. According to one Botswanan strengthen powers
central bank economist, ‘The review of
to have a healthier and more robust the Banking Act is intended to improve of the central bank
business environment. bank resolution and crisis management, to mandate remedial
Despite Rwanda not adhering to strengthen powers of the central bank to
mandate remedial supervisory actions, as
supervisory actions,
international standard master
agreements, it scores well on the well as ensure effective compliance with as well as ensure
insolvency framework indicator due anti-money laundering and combating of effective compliance
financing of terrorism protocols.’
to continuing improvements in its
domestic insolvency legislation.
with anti-money
To position themselves as desirable
Mozambique and Seychelles, despite investment targets, African countries
laundering and
performing poorly on other indicators, must show they have suitable legal and combating of
have introduced reorganisation
procedures that make it easier to
contractual frameworks that protect
property rights and accommodate
financing of
resolve insolvency. international investors. As a start, terrorism protocols.’
Some countries in the index have weak regional integration efforts to ease
scores despite the presence of insolvency cross-border transactions could signal
frameworks. Ghana has an existing readiness for increased capital inflows
insolvency law, but it is considered from international investors.

Figure 6.3: Responsive insolvency regimes needed across the region

Strength of insolvency framework score, max=16
.5
Angola, 0

a, 12
Botsw
Gha

Afric
Nig

an
na,

a, 4
eri

h
4

Sout
M

2
a, 5

,1
or

da
oc

an
co

Na
Rw
,6

mi
bia
,6
0.5
Uga s, 1
nda ritiu
,6 Mau

Zambia, 6

Seychelles, 10
,7
Ethiopia

Mo
zam
,8 biq
ypt ue,
Eg 10
,9

Ca
st

m
oa

er
yC

oo
Sen
or

n,
Tanzania, 9
Iv

ya,

9
ega
Ken

l, 9

Sources: World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index, OMFIF analysis

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 35

Country snapshots

Angola Ghana
+ Increasing exchange rate flexibility + Implementation of Basel III, simple and
- Weak insolvency framework, restrictive low tax levels
capital controls, high non-performing - Weak insolvency framework and low

loan ratio capacity of local investors

Botswana Ivory Coast

+ High market capitalisation as a + Improving financial and exchange rate

percentage of GDP. Large domestic reporting standards

institutional investors relative to - Resource-dependence and
domestic listed assets deteriorating terms of trade reduce
- Fixed exchange rate regime and a weak appeal to foreign investors
insolvency framework

Cameroon Kenya
+ High currency reserves in relation to + Relaxed capital controls, active foreign

net portfolio investment and relatively exchange market, steady economic

strong insolvency framework growth
- Weak foreign exchange market activity, - Limited product diversity, relatively

slow adoption of financial stability low pension assets per capita, declining
regulations export market share

Egypt Mauritius
+ Efforts to liberalise markets with + Strong legal and regulatory framework
floating currency and gradual lifting of - High portfolio flows to reserves ratio
capital controls suggesting vulnerability to external
- Weak legal framework with no shocks, high debt levels
enforcement of ISDA, GMRA or GMSLA
agreements

Ethiopia Morocco
+ Rapid economic growth, moved to a + Large pension and insurance funds

single exchange rate relative to market size, high and growing

- Small market size, weak local investor export market share
capacity, low financial reporting - Tight capital controls, international

standards standard masters agreements not adopted

36 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

+ Strengths
- Areas for improvement

Mozambique Seychelles
+ Improving financial and macro reporting + Low foreign exchange restrictions, high
standards, good economic growth standard of living, improving insolvency
forecast framework
- Low pension assets per capita, low - No sovereign bond market, unattractive

standard of living and high external debt regulatory environment, high debt-to-GDP
ratio

Namibia South Africa

+ High pension assets per capita, low + Dominant regional financial hub with

non-performing loan ratio, stronger deep and liquid capital markets

financial stability framework - Challenging macroeconomic environment,
- No secondary market activity, low highly exposed to external risks
interbank foreign exchange turnover,
relatively slow GDP growth

Nigeria Tanzania
+ Robust bond market activity, low debt + Improving tax and regulatory

burden and strong legal and enforcement environment, promising growth prospects
frameworks for financial agreements - Restrictive capital controls, inactive
- Gaps in exchange rate reporting, secondary market, low pension and
dependence on oil heightens exchange insurance assets
reserves volatility

Rwanda Uganda
+ High transparency and strong + Good data availability and transparency
insolvency framework - Low turnover of equities and bonds,
- No corporate credit ratings, weak high tax on government securities
export activity and high degree of capital
controls

Senegal Zambia
+ Above-average GDP growth and + Diverse products and relatively strong

moderately high market capitalisation legal and contractual tools

relative to GDP - Weak macroeconomic outlook and high
- Low bond market turnover, low ratio of debt burden
institutional assets under management to
domestically listed assets

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 37

METHODOLOGY

The Africa Financial Markets Index in focus

Using a variety of parameters, both qualitative and quantitative, the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index
records the openness and attractiveness of countries across the continent to foreign investment. The index
countries are scored on a scale of 10-100 based on six fundamental pillars comprised of over 40 indicators,
covering market depth, openness, transparency, legal environment and macro opportunity.

Pillar 1: Market depth Quality of financial reporting

• Commitment to international accounting and reporting
Product diversity standards (GAAP, IFRS)
• Type of assets available
Tax environment
• Currency availability of stock exchange products
•E xistence of withholding taxes, special taxes
• Number of hedging products available
and tax treaties
Size of market • Time taken to rebate withholding taxes on investments
• Total sovereign and corporate bonds, market
capitalisation, ratio to GDP Financial information availability
• Existence of fixed dates and times for market reporting
Liquidity • Publishing of data on sector and domestic vs non-
• Total turnover of equities and bonds ratio to resident ownership of domestic assets
market capitalisation and bonds outstanding, respectively
Market development
Depth • E xistence and effectiveness of capital markets
• Ability to clear government instruments denominated in association
local currency in international markets • Existence and strength of rules protecting minority
• Existence of secondary market makers (bond market) shareholders
• Closing auction for fair tradeable market prices • Existence of sovereign rating (Fitch, Moody’s, S&P)
• Number of corporate ratings issued (Fitch, Moody’s, S&P)
Primary dealer system
• Existence of system
• Size of repo market Pillar 4: Capacity of local investors
Local investor asset concentration
Pillar 2: Access to foreign exchange • Value of pension assets per capita
Net portfolio flows, ratio to reserves • Pension and insurance fund assets, ratio to total market
• Total net portfolio flows, ratio to foreign exchange capitalisation of equities and bonds listed on exchanges
reserves

Foreign exchange liquidity Pillar 5: Macroeconomic opportunity

• Interbank market foreign exchange turnover
GDP growth
Capital restrictions • Composite five-year historical GDP average (2012-17)
• Foreign exchange capital controls and five-year forecast (2018-23)

Official exchange rate reporting

Living standards
• Quality of data and frequency of publication
• GDP per capita
• Existence of multiple or unified exchange rate

Competitiveness
Pillar 3: Market transparency, • Absolute export market share and growth in export
tax and regulatory environment market share (excluding oil) over past five years

Macroeconomic data standards

Financial stability regulation • Publication and frequency of GDP, inflation and
• Basel accords implementation stage interest rate data

38 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018

Budget release Pillar 6: Legality and enforceability
• Regular release of budget
of standard financial markets master
MPC outcomes transparency agreements
• Frequency and regular publishing of MPC decisions and
Netting and collateral positions
meeting schedules
• Enforced netting and collateral positions

Debt profile Use of financial market master agreements

• External debt-to-GDP • Use of ISDA master agreements, GMRA, GMSLA or own
non-standard agreements
Quality of banking sector assets
Insolvency framework
• Non-performing loans ratio
• Strength of insolvency frameworks, World Bank score

Methodology
Pillars and indicators throughout Africa. Participants include chief executives,
The index scores each country based on six pillars: managing directors, managing partners or country
market depth; access to foreign exchange; market experts across a range of global, regional and local
transparency, tax and regulatory environment; capacity institutions, including banks, securities exchanges,
of local investors; underlying macro opportunity; and the regulators, asset managers and investors.
legality and enforceability of standard master financial
agreements. Pillars are built from a set of key indicators Harmonisation and scoring
listed on p.38-39. Raw data are harmonised on a scale of 10-100 to allow
Each individual indicator is weighted equally in each comparability between indicators.
pillar, and each pillar is weighted equally in the overall Outliers in the raw data falling above or below two
index score. standard deviations of the mean are accounted for
The second edition of the index adds three new during the scoring. In the case of an outlier greater than
countries (Angola, Cameroon and Senegal). The scope the upper bound, its value is replaced by the next-
for direct comparison of countries’ position in the index highest data point in the sample. This means
between 2017 and 2018 is therefore limited. indicators can have more than one country scoring
maximum points.
Data and survey In the rare case of missing data, data points are
The data informing the scores for each pillar and their modelled to smooth gaps and ensure the overall pillar
indicators stem from a mixture of quantitative and score is not affected. The proxy value takes the average
qualitative analysis. The quantitative data collected of the remaining harmonised scores for the country
are of the latest year available. For full year statistics across all its indicators in the pillar, ensuring the final
( i.e. GDP) this is 2017 data. For statistics covering the pillar score is not skewed by a missing value.
previous 12 months (i.e. securities market turnover) this The scoring of each indicator and pillar works under the
is July 2017 to July 2018. In cases where the data refer to same process. Once indicators have a harmonised score,
current conditions, such as for the Basel implementation the average is taken across each indicator in a pillar to
stages, international accounting standards, and credit create the overall pillar score. Similarly pillar scores are
ratings, the data are as of mid-August 2018. averaged to create the country’s composite score.
The survey element provides both quantitative and
qualitative data relating to legal, regulatory and market How to get full marks
conditions in each of the countries, such as information
As the index is a comparison of a country’s financial
on tax environment, as well as responses based on
market against the selected sample, a country can
country experiences.
reach the maximum score of 100. In such a scenario, the
The survey was conducted between June and August country must achieve the maximum score of 100 in all
2018, covering more than 50 institutions operating six pillars.

Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 39

Absa Group Limited Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum
15 Troye Street, Johannesburg, 2001, South Africa 30 Crown Place, London, EC2A 4EB, United Kingdom
T: +27 (0) 11 350 4000 T: +44 (0)20 3008 5262
www.absa.africa www.omfif.org
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40 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018