Towards Zero via a Safe System approach:

Challenges and opportunities for EU road safety activity

Jeanne Breen Consulting

Executive Road Safety Symposium, 22nd January 2018, Florence

Outline
▪ Current picture – EU ambitions, results, trends
▪ Safe System - challenges and opportunities
▪ Safe System - results framework
▪ Key safety performance fields - today’s themes

Jeanne Breen Consulting

Current picture

Jeanne Breen Consulting

EU road safety ambitions

Long-term goal: By 2050, close to zero deaths

Interim target: By 2020, halve road deaths

Valletta Declaration: Call for target-setting to 2030

European Parliament: Support for Vision Zero and call

for target-setting to 2030.
European Commission (2010,2011); Valletta Declaration (2017); European Parliament (2017)
EU road safety results

EU road safety progress during the last two decades is

an internationally acknowledged success story.

EU has achieved a 53% reduction in deaths since 2001.

EU is the world’s leading regional road safety performer.

EU new vehicles have the highest safety quality.

Jeanne Breen Consulting

EU road safety results

! 25,640 deaths, 135,000 seriously injured in 2016.

! Slowing rate of progress since 2010:

- 19% fewer road deaths; average annual reduction of
3.4% = one third of reduction needed to meet target.
- 0.5% reduction in nationally defined serious injuries.

! Value of prevention estimated @ €500 billion,3% of GDP.

CARE database, 2017; ETSC, 2017
EU fatalities and targets 2010-2020
60,000 57,060
54,960
54,010 EU 2020 target
51,060

47,900 EU road fatalities

50,000
45,940
43,720
2010 target
43,150
39,580
40,000 35,360

31,510
30,690
28,240
30,000
25,960 25,980 26,130
25,640 25,100

20,000

15,750

10,000

0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

CARE database, 2017

75% of deaths in the 8 largest EU countries

CARE data (3 year average, different years); SWOV, 2017

Challenging societal and mobility trends
An ageing road user population - vulnerable to injury.

Cycling and walking encouraged - with higher injury

risk than for protected in-vehicle users.

Continuing popularity of powered two-wheelers – the

highest risk travel mode.

Driverless and connected vehicles – a long transition

path to automation with safety impacts > 30 years.

Jeanne Breen Consulting

The projected path to CAVs – English SRN
▪ In 10-15 years most vehicles will have connected capability

▪ By 2040, most vehicles will be connected to infrastructure

▪ By 2050, full automation expected on strategic network (SRN)

Highways England, 2017

What influences our road safety results?

▪ external factors: economic, traffic; demographic;

▪ level of ambition, close management of objectives;
▪ scope, quality, amount of systematic intervention;
▪ attention to evidence base and safety needs of all users;
▪ quality of implementation and institutional delivery.
The paradigm shift to Safe System
Phase 1: 1950s -60s: Road user responsibility is the main focus.

“Systems approach” pre-crash, during-crash,

Phase 2: 1970s -80s:
post-crash phases, system-wide measures.

Phase 3: 1980 – 90s: Targeted national plans of varying ambition,

safer roads, vehicles, users.

Phase 4: Mid-1990s► Safe System: builds on previous practice; high

ambition + evidence-base; safety of all users;
closer management; shared accountability.
OECD, 2008; GRSF, World Bank, 2009
Safe System:
challenges and opportunities

Executive Road Safety Symposium, 22nd January 2018, Florence

Safe System is promoted globally

United Nations Road Safety Collaboration

What is Safe System ?
The generic term for concepts such as:
Vision Zero, Sustainable Safety and Towards Zero.

A work in progress in a growing number of countries

Executive Road Safety Symposium, 22nd January 2018, Florence
What is Safe System ?

International reports outline the

scope of Safe System and and
highlight effective practice.

Road safety manual: .

Implementing Safe System
infrastructure

OECD, 2008, 2016; World Road Association, 2015

What is Safe System?
▪ Safe not safer:
▪ To eliminate death and serious injury in the long-term
▪ supported by interim targets and objectives within a
▪ specified safety performance framework.

Strategy:
▪ To create shared responsibility for better managing all parts
▪ of the road traffic system to address known common error
▪ and human vulnerabilities to avoid severe crash outcomes.
Executive Road Safety Symposium, 22nd January 2018, Florence
1. People make mistakes
▪ Most driving decisions are correct but 1 in 500 are wrong,
involve a mistake, an error of judgement or a missed signal
with serious consequences.

▪ Only 30% of serious road crashes are caused by

deliberate offences or risk-taking behaviour.

▪ Most result from simple errors of perception or

judgement by otherwise compliant users.

OECD 2016; Loughborough University Safe System course

2. Human tolerance to injury levels are known
▪ The human body has a known, limited
physical ability to tolerate crash forces
before harm occurs.
▪ Allowable speeds of many roads across the
EU are higher than the protection afforded
by roads, roadsides and vehicle design.
▪ Safe System tolerates error as well as
physical limitations to prevent harm.
OECD 2016; Loughborough University Safe System course
Limits to system protection against KSI

Head-on crashes km/h

Junction crashes km/h

Run-off road crashes km/h

Pedestrians and
km/h
cyclists in car crashes
Designing for sustainable prevention
The key Safe System design parameters in the
sustainable prevention of death and serious
injury are:

Speed, Roads and Roadsides, Vehicle factors

▪ Safe separation where possible.

▪ Protective road and vehicle design and
speed management.
3. Shared responsibility for results

▪ Accountable, multi-sectoral shared responsibility

▪ Professional planners, designers and operators of the
road traffic system and road users
▪ Government, business and civil society
▪ Large and small organisations

OECD, 2016; Loughborough University Safe System course

4. Strengthened institutional management

▪ Systematic, results-focused response: long-term and interim.

▪ Measuring and targeting desired outcomes directly related to
the prevention of death and serious injury.
▪ Aligning with other key societal goals for win-wins.
▪ Leadership from Government, key agencies
and top management of organisations.

OECD, 2016; Loughborough University Safe System course

Road safety results are produced

Results

Interventions

Institutional management
The Safe System challenge?
▪ How to address high political ambition for better road
safety results towards zero deaths and serious injuries?

How to work together as policymakers and professionals

more effectively to deliver safe frameworks?

How to do this sustainably, affordably, acceptably?

New professional purpose and challenge.

Jeanne Breen Consulting

The Safe System opportunity?
▪ The level of ambition requires:
▪ a stronger focus on results; proactive not reactive approach;
▪ a specific focus on deaths and serious injuries - virtually
preventable and socially unacceptable - rather than all
crashes which are not;
▪ attention to related underlying operational conditions;
▪ broader, accountable delivery to achieve co-benefits.

ITF/OECD, 2017
Safe System results frameworks
Example from Sweden
▪
Zero death &
serious injury

Interim outcome targets to 2020

50% reduction in deaths
25% reduction in serious injuries

10 intermediate outcome targets (KPIs) to 2020

Swedish Transport Administration

‘Managing by objectives’
This approach involves measuring, targeting, monitoring and
annually reporting on activity in key safety performance fields
with a known probability of delivering results.

Annual results conferences are held to report on progress and

discuss further improvements.

Swedish Transport Administration

Possible EU Towards Zero results framework

Long-term goals
Zero deaths and
serious injuries by 2050

Interim targets
50% fewer deaths and serious
injuries between 2020 and 2030

Intermediate outcome targets (KPIs)

Targeted reductions of key safety performance indicators
related to death and serious injury prevention and mitigation
Jeanne Breen Consulting
Key safety performance fields:
today’s themes

Executive Symposium on Road Safety, 22nd January 2018, Florence

Key Safe System safety performance fields

▪ Levels of safe travel speeds

▪ Measurable safety quality of roads and roadsides
▪ Measurable safety quality of new vehicles
▪ Measurable efficiency of post-crash care
▪ Levels of safe road use
Increasing road and roadside safety levels
Self explaining roads and forgiving roadsides to avoid and
mitigate death and serious injury

▪ Re-classifying roads to better match speed limits

with protection from road design and layout.

▪ Measuring network safety using the recommended

Euro RAP tool; targeting increased star rating.

▪ Targeting first high-risk, high-volume parts of the

TEN-T and major roads network.
Improving levels of safe speeds
Set and enforce speed limits which take better account of injury
thresholds and the protective limits of roads, roadsides and vehicles.

roads with possible car to car

km/h
head-on collisions

junctions with possible car to km/h

car side-impacts

roads with possible conflicts km/h

with pedestrians and cyclists
Increasing the safety quality of new vehicles
Support correct in-vehicle use and protect occupants and users
outside the vehicle to avoid and mitigate death & serious injury.

▪ Updating EU vehicle safety regulation; national fast-tracking

▪ Targeting and promoting improved take-up of Euro NCAP 5*

▪ Regulating the safe path to driverless vehicles.

Increasing efficient, effective post-crash care
Road traffic injury is a leading cause of major trauma.
Reduce injury consequences should a crash injury occur.

▪ efficient emergency notification e.g. via e-Call

▪ fast transport of qualified medical personnel
▪ correct diagnosis at the scene; stabilisation of patient
▪ prompt transport to point of treatment
▪ quality emergency room and trauma care
▪ rehabilitation services
Increasing levels of safe road use
Assist safe and alert road use by driving standards
for novice drivers, rules and compliance regimes, in-
vehicle driver assistance.

▪ Graduated driver licensing to manage risk

▪ Compliance with speed limits
▪ Use of seat belts and child restraints
▪ Use of crash helmets
▪ Driving without alcohol, other drugs or distraction
Endnote:

Safe System Towards Zero is the globally recommended new

performance goal, safety culture and management approach.

Death and serious injury are not the inevitable price of mobility,
but preventable if the focus, intervention and delivery are right.

Safe not partially safe is highly ambitious, a big professional

challenge for us all - but a huge humanitarian opportunity !