Predicting and responding to earthquakes and tsunamis

Hazard mapping and risk assessment

Vulnerability - geographic conditions which increase how susceptible a community

is to a hazard/its impacts.
Risk - the probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences
Hazard - a threat which has the potential to cause loss of life
Disaster - a major hazard event which causes widespread destruction to a
community

Relationship between hazards and disaster = Risk equation

●​ Risk of disaster increases as hazard magnitude increase
●​ If vulnerability rises, so does risk
Risk = (hazard x vulnerability) / capacity to cope

A hazard map is a map that highlights areas that are affected by or are vulnerable
to a particular hazard

-​ Stage 1 - Preconditions (phase 1-2)

-​ before the disaster includes everyday life risks and vulnerabilities
-​ Premonitory developments include the erosion of safety measures
and misread warnings
-​ Stage 2 - Disaster (phases 3-6)
-​ Triggering event that begins the crisis
-​ Initial impacts of the disaster, high deaths and
devastation
-​ Secondary impacts follow; delayed deaths and
post-impact hazards occur
-​ Rescue operation and both national and
international aid to assist in humanitarian operations
-​ Stage 3 - Recovery and reconstruction (phases 7-8)
-​ Cleaning up of the disaster
-​ Reconstruction of severely damaged properties and areas → aid from
different places can arrive and help to provide for those in need
-​ Planning of attempts to reduce impact if it were to occur again in the
future

Preparation

-​ It is difficult to stop an earthquake from happening, so prevention just

minimises prospect of death, injury, damage
-​ Warning systems can be used to warn people amd inform them what to do,
to prepare

Building design- buildings can be designed to withstand the ground shaking that
occurs in an earthquake.
-​ Single storey buildings are more suitable because it reduces number of
people at risk
-​ Some tall buildings are built with a soft storey at the bottom
such as a car park on raised pillars, this collapses in an
earthquake- so upper floors sink down onto it and cushion
the impact.
-​ → basement isolation- the mounting of foundations of a
building on rubber mounts that allow the ground to move
under the building. This isolates the building from the tremors.
-​ Building reinforcement strategies include building on foundations built
deep into underlying bedrock, and steel constructed frames can withstand
shaking.

Safe House - In wealthy cities in fault zones, the added expense of making
buildings earthquake resistant has become a fact of life
-​ Concrete walls are reinforced with steel
-​ Few buildings rest on elaborate shock absorbers
-​ Eg In Peru in 1970, earthquake killed 70,000 people,
majority from houses crumbling, as they were made
from heavy, brittle traditional walls which cracked instantly
-​ They can be reinforced with a strong plastic mesh installed under
plaster, these crack but do not collapse
-​ Local material are also used, like in India they are using bamboo to
reinforce house

Controlling earthquakes
-​ By altering the fluid pressure deep underground at the point of greatest
stress in the fault line, a series of small and less damaging earthquake
events may be triggered. This could release the energy that would otherwise
build up to create a major event. Additionally a series of controlled
underground nuclear explosions might relieve stress before it reached
critical levels.

Prediction

●​ Very difficult to predict when earthquakes occur, and not reliable.

●​ Easier to predict where they’ll occur (mainly on fault lines).
●​ Pattern recognition is the most reliable way to predict them by looking in
close detail around the plate's movement including speeds and shapes.
●​ The most reliable predictions focus on:
○​ measurement of small-scale ground surface changes
○​ small-scale uplift or subsidence
○​ ground tilt
○​ changes in rock stress
○​ micro-earthquake activity (clusters of small ’quakes)
○​ anomalies in the Earth’s magnetic field

Research has focussed on monitoring:

Pre-cursor earthquakes or foreshocks - these are measured using seismometers –
they may indicate that a larger earthquake will follow
Deformation - this is measured using strainmeters and tiltmeters - it might
indicate that pressure is building up
Groundwater levels - these are measured using sensors – water levels in wells can
rise or fall suddenly indicating that an earthquake may be imminent
Radon emissions - these are measured using radon detectors - concentrations of
radon gas in the atmosphere can increase prior to an earthquake
Animal behaviour - unusual behaviour can indicate that an earthquake might be
about to happen

Seismometer- to record micro quakes

Magnetometer- to record changes in the earth's magnetic field
Near surface seismometer- to record larger shocks
Vibroseis truck- to create shear waves to probe earthquake zones
Strain meter- monitor surface deformation
Sensor in wells- monitor changes in groundwater levels
Satellite relays- relay data to the US geological survey
Laser survey equipment- measure surface movement

Tsunami warning systems

History of the warning system

-​ First effective system was developed in 1948 in the pacific, following the
1946 tsunami
-​ The system consisted of over 50 tidal stations and 31 seismic stations,
spread between alaska, hong kong and cape horn
-​ Following an earthquake, tidal gauges in the region establish whether a
tsunami has formed
-​ Earthquake epicentre is also plotted and magnitude is investigated
-​ Operated by US national oceanic and atmospheric administration

Evaluation of its successes/failures?

-​ Been approved by use of satellites
-​ Takes time for a tsunami to reach the coast. A tsunami off the coast of
Ecuador would take 12 hrs to reach Hawaii and 20 to reach Japan.
-​ A tsunami off the coast of the aleutians will take 5 hrs to reach Hawaii.
-​ Many LICs lack systems
-​ Following the 2010, Chile earthquake, a tsunami warning was issued, there
was little evidence of large waves reaching the coast
-​ 2010 indonesian tsunami failed to mitigate early warning systems
-​ System had been vandalised in Mentawai islands (worst affected)

Improvements made to tsunami warning systems

Seismographic Networks
●​ More than 150 seismic stations worldwide now detect undersea earthquakes
in real time.
●​ Improved real-time earthquake magnitude and depth calculations allow
quicker tsunami threat assessments.
Deep-Ocean Tsunami Detection Buoys (DART System)
●​ Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys are
placed in the Indian Ocean, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans.
●​ They measure sudden changes in ocean pressure
caused by undersea earthquakes.
●​ Data is sent via satellites to warning centers within
minutes.
Coastal Tide Gauges
●​ Installed along coastlines to track sea-level changes.
●​ Helps confirm if an earthquake-generated tsunami
is actually occurring.

A pressure sensor and tsunameter detects movement of

plates underwater, This sends acoustic communication to
a surface buoy which GPS to a satellite, to a tsunami
warning centre, and then to individuals

Successes of Tsunami Warning Systems

1.​ Timely Warnings & Lives Saved
○​ 2011 Japan (Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami):
■​ Japan's advanced tsunami warning system, which included
seismometers and DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and
Reporting of Tsunamis) buoys, detected the tsunami within
minutes.
■​ The warning was issued, and many people evacuated, reducing
casualties.
○​ 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (Post-event Improvements):
■​ After the disaster, an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System
(IOTWS) was established, significantly improving
preparedness in the region.
■​ In 2012, an 8.6 magnitude earthquake off Sumatra triggered
the system, leading to effective evacuations.
2.​ Technological Advancements & Global Networks
○​ Use of DART Buoys & Tide Gauges:
■​ These detect underwater pressure changes and send real-time
data to warning centers, improving accuracy.
○​ Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC):
■​ Covers the Pacific Ocean and has successfully warned countries
like Hawaii and Chile about incoming tsunamis.
3.​ Community Preparedness & Drills
○​ Japan, the US, and Indonesia conduct regular tsunami drills, ensuring
the public knows how to respond.
○​ Education campaigns in Chile and New Zealand have increased
awareness and reduced casualties.

Failures of Tsunami Warning Systems

1.​ Delayed or Inaccurate Warnings
○​ 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami:
■​ No warning system in place; over 230,000 people died due to
lack of preparedness.
○​ 2018 Sulawesi Tsunami (Indonesia):
■​ Early warning buoys were non-functional due to vandalism
and lack of maintenance.
■​ The warning system relied on earthquake detection rather than
real-time wave monitoring, leading to an inadequate response.
2.​ False Alarms & Public Distrust
○​ Hawaii 2018 False Alarm:
■​ A mistaken warning led to mass panic, causing distrust in
future alerts.
○​ Thailand & Indonesia (Post-2004):
■​ Some communities ignored warnings due to previous false
alarms, putting themselves at risk.
3.​ Poor Communication & Infrastructure Challenges
○​ 2011 Japan:
■​ The warning was issued, but some areas underestimated the
tsunami height, leading to infrastructure failures such as the
Fukushima nuclear disaster.
○​ 2018 Sulawesi:
■​ Many warning sirens failed, and mobile alerts did not reach
affected communities in time.
4.​ Economic & Political Challenges
○​ Developing countries struggle with funding for tsunami warning
systems, leading to gaps in coverage and outdated equipment.
○​ Bureaucratic delays and mismanagement can hinder response efforts,
as seen in Indonesia and Thailand.