Probability

Prepared by Ms Thomas
Probability
• Probability is a measure of how likely it is
for an event to happen.
• Do we have a better chance of it occurring
or do we have a better chance of it not
occurring?
• We name a probability with a number from 0
to 1.
• If an event is certain to happen, then the
probability of the event is 1.
• If an event is certain not to happen, then
the probability of the event is 0.
Probability
• If it is uncertain whether or not an
event will happen, then its probability
is some fraction between 0 and 1 (or
a fraction converted to a decimal
number).
Generally, we talk about this probability
as a fraction, a decimal, or even a
percent—
•the probability that if two dice are
tossed the spots will total to seven is 1/6
•the probability that a baseball player
will get a hit is .273
•the probability that it will rain is 20%
CHANCE
• Chance is how likely it is that
something will happen. To state a
chance, we use a percent.
0 ½ 1
Probability

Certain not Equally likely to

happen or not to Certain to
to happen happen
happen

Chance
0% 50 %
100%
Chance
• When a meteorologist states that the
chance of rain is 50%, the
meteorologist is saying that it is equally
likely to rain or not to rain. If the
chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more
likely to rain. If the chance drops to
20%, then it may rain, but it probably
will not rain.
Question
• Use one of the following to
describe each of the statement (a)
to (g): Certain, Very likely, Likely,
Unlikely, Very unlikely, Impossible.
• It will snow tomorrow
• It will rain tomorrow
• You will win a car in a competition tomorrow
• You are late for school tomorrow
• You roll a normal die and score a 7
• You complete all your maths homework correctly
• Your parents decide to double your lunch money
next week
Activity
• Which of the following values cannot
be probabilities of events and why?

1/5 0.97 -5.5 1.56

5/3 0.0 2/7 1.0

8
Definitions
• An experiment is a process that, when
performed, results in one and only one of
many observations.
• These observations are called outcomes of
the experiment.
• The collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.
• An event is a collection of one or more of
the outcomes of an experiment.
• An event that includes one and only one of
the (final) outcomes for an experiment is
called a simple event.
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Experiment Possible Outcome

Tossing a coin Head or tail

Throwing a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

3 black balls and 2

white balls in a bag
Birth of a baby Boy or girl

10
Empirical Probability
Some probabilities are determined from
repeated experimentation and
observation, recording results, and then
using these results to predict expected
probability. This kind of probability is
referred to as empirical probability.
If we conduct an experiment and record
the number of times a favorable event
occurs, then the probability of the event
occurring is given by:
# of times event E occurred
P (E ) 
total # of times experiment performed
We can see this in the following
example. If we flip a coin 500 times and
it lands on heads 248 times, then the
empirical probability is given by:
248
P (heads )   0.5
500

Remember
# of times event E occurred
P (E ) 
total # of times experiment performed
Theoretical Probability
Other probabilities are determined using
mathematical computations based on
possible results, or outcomes. This kind
of probability is referred to as theoretical
probability.
The theoretical probability of event E
happening is given by:
# of ways E can occur
P (E ) 
total # of possible outcomes
If we consider a fair coin has two sides
and only one side is heads, and either
side is likely to come up, then the
theoretical probability of tossing heads is
given by:
# sides that are heads 1
P (E )    0.5
total number of sides 2

Remember
# of ways E can occur
P (E ) 
total # of possible outcomes
While in both cases illustrated for tossing
a heads the probability comes out to be
0.5, it should be noted that empirical
probability falls under the Law of Large
Numbers which basically says that an
experiment must be conducted a large
number of times in order to determine
the probability with any certainty.
You can flip a coin ten times and have
heads come up seven times, but this does
not mean that the probability is 0.7. The
more times a coin is flipped, the more
certainty we have to determine the
probability of coming up heads.
Other examples of theoretical probability
are found in determining the probability of
drawing a certain card from a standard
deck of cards.
A standard deck has four suits: spades
(), hearts (), diamonds (), and clubs
(). It has thirteen cards in each suit: ace,
2, 3, . . ., 10, jack, queen, and king. Each
of these cards is equally likely to be drawn.
The probability of drawing a king is
given by:
# of kings in a deck 4 1
P (king )   
total # of cards in a deck 52 13

Remember
# of ways E can occur
P (E ) 
total # of possible outcomes
The probability of drawing a heart is
given by:
# of hearts in a deck 13 1
P (heart )   
total # of cards in a deck 52 4

Remember
# of ways E can occur
P (E ) 
total # of possible outcomes
The probability of drawing a face card
(jack, queen, king) is given by:
# of face cards in a deck 12 3
P (face card )   
total # of cards in a deck 52 13

Remember
# of ways E can occur
P (E ) 
total # of possible outcomes
Dice (singular is die) are cubes that have
spots on each side. The spots are usually
numbered from 1 to 6. When a fair die is
tossed, each side has an equally likely
chance of ending up on top. The
probability of tossing a die and having a
4 end up on top (this is called rolling a 4)
is given by:
# of faces with 4 1
P (4)  
total # of faces 6
The probability of tossing a die and
rolling a 7 is given by:
# faces with 7 0
P (7)   0
total # of faces 6

The probability of tossing a die and

rolling a number less than 7 is given by:
# faces with less than 7 6
P (less than 7)   1
total # of faces 6
These examples lead to four rules or
facts about probability:
1. The probability of an event that
cannot occur is 0.
2. The probability of an event that
must occur is 1.
3. Every probability is a number
between 0 and 1 inclusive.
4. The sum of the probabilities of
all possible outcomes of an
experiment is 1.
Complement of an Event
The complement of an event is all
outcomes where the desired event does
not occur.
' We can say the complement
of E is not E (sometimes written as Ē or
l
E ).

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Since any event will either occur or it
will not occur, by rule 4 previously
discussed, we get:
P (E )  P (not E )  1

Remember
Rule 4: the sum of the
probabilities of all possible
outcomes of an experiment is 1.
P (E )  P (not E )  1 can also be stated as:
P (not E )  1  P (E )

So the probability of tossing a die and

not rolling a 4 is:
1 5
P (not 4)  1  P (4)  1  
6 6
Example 1
1. What is the probability that the spinner
B A will stop on part A?
D C

2. What is the probability that the

3 1 spinner will stop on
(a) An even number?
2
(b) An odd number?

A
C B 3. What fraction names the
probability that the spinner will
stop in the area marked A?
Example 2
Lawrence is the captain of his track team.
The team is deciding on a color and all
eight members wrote their choice down on
equal size cards. If Lawrence picks one
card at random, what is the probability
that he will pick blue?
blue green blue

yellow blue black

red black
Example 3
• Donald is rolling a number cube labeled
1 to 6. Which of the following is
LEAST LIKELY?
A. an even number
B. an odd number
C. a number greater than 5
Example 4
A boy has a jar marbles.
Example 4
He has:
three red,
five blue,

and two yellow.

Example 4
What is the probability of drawing a red ball?

P(red) = 3/10

= .30 = 30%
Example 4
What is the probability of drawing a blue ball?

P(blue) = 5/10 =1
/2 = .50 = 50%
Example 5
What is the probability of drawing a ball that is not red.
Example 5
What is the probability of rolling a 5 on
one die?
Compound Events
A compound event is an event consisting
of two or more simple events. Examples
of simple events are: tossing a die and
rolling a 5, picking a seven from a deck
of cards, or flipping a coin and having a
heads show up.
The notation for this kind of compound
event is given by P ( A or B ) . This is the
probability that event A or event B (or
both) will occur.
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two or more events that do not
contain any common outcome and,
hence cannot occur together.

• P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) OR

• P(A or B or C) = P(A) +P(B) +P(C) etc

40
Example 1
• A number is chosen at random from
the set {2, 4, 6, 8, ……..18, 20}. Find
the probability that it is either a
factor of 18 or a multiple of 5.

41
Example 2
• A bag contains 3 red balls, 4 blue
balls, 5 white balls and 6 black balls.
A ball is picked at random, what is
the probability that is either
(a) red or blue
(b) Blue, white or black

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In the case of rolling either a 5 or an
even number on a die, the probability is
arrived at by using the fact that there is
only one way to roll a 5 and there are
three ways to roll an even number.
So, out of the six numbers that can show
up on top, we have four ways that we
can roll either a 5 or an even number.
The probability is given by:
1 3 4 2
P (5 or even)    
6 6 6 3

Probability of rolling a 5 Probability of rolling an even

number
Notice however, if we want the
probability of rolling a 5 or rolling a
number greater than 3. There are three
numbers greater than 3 on a die and one
of them is the 5. We cannot count the 5
twice. The probability is given by:
1  3 1 3 1
P (5 or greater than 3)       
6 6 6 6 2
Probability of rolling a 5
Probability of rolling the
same 5
Probability of rolling a
number greater than 3
Stated mathematically the rule is given
by:
P ( A or B )  P ( A)  P (B )  P ( A and B )

Thus, the probability of drawing a 3 or a

club from a standard deck of cards is:
4 13 1 16 4
P (3 or club)     
52 52 52 52 13
Cards with a 3
Cards with clubs Card that is a 3 and a club
Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Independent events are events in which
the occurrence of the events will not
affect the probability of the occurrence
of any of the other events.
When we conduct two independent
events we can determine the probability
of a given outcome in the first event
followed by another given outcome in
the second event.
An example of this is picking a color
from a set of crayons, then tossing a die.
Separately, each of these events is a
simple event and the selection of a color
does not affect the tossing of a die.
If the set of crayons consists only of red,
yellow, and blue, the probability of
1
picking red is . The probability of
3 1
tossing a die and rolling a 5 is . But
6
the probability of picking red and rolling
a 5 is given by:
P (red and 5)  P (red)  P (5)
1 1 1
  
3 6 18
The multiplication rule for independent
events can be stated as:
P ( A and B )  P ( A)  P (B )
This rule can be extended for more than
two independent events:
P ( A and B and C, etc.)  P ( A)  P (B )  P (C ), etc.
Dependent Events

Dependent events are events that are not

independent. The occurrence of one event
affects the probability of the occurrence of
other events. An example of dependent
events is picking a card from a standard deck
then picking another card from the
remaining cards in the deck.
Example 1
• Five girls and three boys put their
names in a box. One of the name is
picked out at random. Without
replacing the first name, a second
name is picked out at random. What
is the probability that both are
names of girls?
Expected values
Expected value = Total number of
values X probability of
success.
Example 1
• The probability of a marksman
hitting a target is 11/12. What is his
expected number of hits if he fires
60 rounds?
Example 2
• The probability that you get a red
bead when you draw at random from
a bag is 3/7. How many red balls
would you expect if you drew a bead
from 77 such bags?
THE
END