TUSIIME SECONDARY SCHOOL

BASIC MATHEMATIC
TOPIC: PROBABILITY.
In everyday life, we are always faced with situations involving uncertainties’ example, when two equally strong
football teams play a match, it difficult to predict the outcome of the game. One team may win while the other loose
the game or the match may end in a draw.
Similarly, when a fair die is rolled once, it is not easy to tell in advance which of the numbers 1 to 6 will show up. In
predicting such uncertainties, the theory of probability is applied. The competencies developed will help you to
predict the occurrence of some events in different fields such as science, economics, social science, sports and other
daily life activities.
Def: Probability is a branch of mathematics which deals with the analysis of random phenomena. It provides
quantitative occurrences of situations or events and normally it ranges from 0 to 1.
Experiment
In probability, an experiment is an activity which results in an at least two possible outcomes. Examples: tossing a
coin, tossing a die etc.
Sample space (S)
This is a set of all expected outcomes from the experiment and it denoted by a letter S.
Example: (a) A die; the sample space is S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
(b) A coin; the sample space is S= {Head, Tail} or {H, T}
Event(E)
Is a specified outcome or the set of interest from the sample space and it denoted by a letter E. And also, the event
that may not occur is denoted by EꞋ. For example, in tossing a fair coin once, if the head (H) shows up then an event
set is written as E={H}. The event that the head does not show up is written as EꞋ={T}.
Probability of an event, P(E)
Steps for calculating the probability of an event are:
(i) Identify the elements of all the outcomes, that is the sample space.
(ii) Define the elements of the event, that is identify the set of events.
(iii)Calculate the probability of an event using the formula
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸 ) =
𝑛(𝑆)

Where, n(E) is the number of outcomes in the event and n(S) is the number of outcomes in the sample space.
Note: P(E) + P(EꞋ) = 1
The probability of an event is 1 when there is complete certainty that it will occur its known as sure event
The probability of an event is 0 when the event is impossible to occur. Generally, its 𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏.
Playing Cards:
In a pack or deck of 52 cards, they are divided into 4 suits of 13 cards each i.e.

➢ Cards of spades and clubs are black cards which make the total of 26 black cards. And the cards of hearts
and diamonds are red cards which make the total of 26 red cards.
➢ The cards in each suit are ace, king, queen, jack or knaves, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10.
➢ The King, Queen and Jack(knaves) are face cards, so there are 12 face cards in the pack of 52 playing cards.
Example 1:
If a fair die is rolled once, find :(a) the sample space of an experiment (b) the set of events for occurrence of an even
number (c) the set of events that an even number does not occur (d) the probability of even numbers will occur
Example 2:
In an experiment of selecting an even number less than 20. Find (a) the event set for the multiple of 3 (b) the
probability of the event set of multiple of 3.
Example 3:
Find the probability of not selecting an even number from a set of counting numbers less than 9.
Example 4:
A drawing pin was tossed 1000 times, where as the pin fell flat in 563 tosses. Find the probability that when such a
pin is tossed, it will fall flat.
Example 5:
A certain factory manufactured torch bulbs. If 5% of the manufactured torch bulbs were defective. What is the
probability that a bulb from the factory will be non-defective?
Example 6:
Find the probability that a king appears in drawing a single card from an ordinary deck of 52 cards.
Example 7:
A box has 6 white marbles and 4 blue marbles. A marbles is chosen at random, find the probability that it is (a) white
(b) Blue
Example 8:
1
The probability of selecting a red ball from a box containing red and green balls is 4 . Find the probability of not
selecting a red ball.
• ASSIGNMENT: Exercise 4.2, Qn (1- 20) Page 135-137 (TIE Math book,2021)
Combined events using tree diagram, tables and formulae
Combined event as re more than one event which occur together in one experiment. Two or more sample
events represented by a single event are called combined events. These events include mutually exclusive
events, independent events and dependent events. Finding the probability of combined events, requires the use
of tree diagrams, tables or formulae.
a) Tree diagram of combined events

H H

T
start
H
T
T

There four possible outcomes. Hence the sample space S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
b) A table for combined events
A sample space can be found without using the tree diagram
H T
H HH HT
T TH TT
The sample space, S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Example 1:
A fair die is rolled and a fair coin is tossed simultaneously. Find the sample space and hence determine the probability
that a head and a number less than 3 will occur.
Example 2:
A fraction is written by selecting the numerator from the digits 1, 2, 3 and the denominator from the digits 6, 8.
(i) Find the sample space of this experiment
1
(ii) Find the probability that the fraction written is less than
2

Example 3:
In a family of 2 children, what is the probability that:
(i) All are girls?
(ii) One is a boy and the other is a girl?
(iii)At least two are boys?
c) The probability of combined events using a formula
When calculating an event which is not mutually exclusive, the probability of the overlap should be subtracted. For
two events A and B, the probability that either A or B occurs is given by:
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
❖ Mutually Exclusive Events:
Events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur together or at the same time. For example, two students entering
the same race, the event that one student wins and the other wins too cannot happen together.
For two mutually exclusive events A and B, we have: 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩). Since 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎 because the
events cannot occur together.
Example of mutually exclusive events is a coin toss. The outcome of a tossed coin can be either a head or tail, but
both outcomes cannot occur simultaneously.
❖ Independent Events:
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of the other. For
example, when a fair coin is tossed twice, the outcome of the first toss does not affect the outcome of the second toss.
When two events A and B are independent, the probability of both to occur is given by
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)
Examples of independent events are:
(i) Rolling a DIE and then choosing a CARD
(ii) Choosing a marble from a bag, replacing it and then choosing again
❖ Dependent Events:
Are events that are affected by one another. An example of dependent events is choosing a card, not replacing it and
then choosing another.
Note: Whether the events are independent or dependent, we can multiply their probability.
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)
Example 4:
1 1 1
If 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = , find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
4 3 6

Example 5:
A student picked a pair of socks out of his drawer without looking in it. If he has 3 pairs of black socks, 4 pairs of
brown socks, 3 pairs of black sport socks, and 5 pairs of white sport socks. Find the probability that the student will
pick a pair of black socks or a pair of sport socks.
Example 6:
1 1
The probability that team A will win the football league is , and the probability that the team B will win is . What
5 7
is the probability that a team will win the football league?
Example 7:
Given P(A)=0.6 and P(B)=0.4, find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) if A and B are independent events.
Example 8:
A fair coin is tossed and a fair six-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of landing on the head side of the coin and
rolling a 3 on the die.
Example 9: A bag contains 6 green balls and 9 blue balls. Two balls are drawn one at a time and without replacement.
Find the probability that:(a) both balls are of the same colour (b) the balls are of different colour(c)at least one of the
balls is blue.