Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+ September 2024 Toplines
Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+ September 2024 Toplines
ScholarWorks@BGSU
9-2024
Repository Citation
Alexander, Robert, "Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+, September 2024 Toplines" (2024). Democracy and
Public Policy Research Network. 2.
https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/depo/2
This Report is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@BGSU. It has been accepted for inclusion
in Democracy and Public Policy Research Network by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@BGSU.
Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network
Polling Lab: Dr. Melissa Miller, Dr. David Jackson, Dr. Nicole Kalaf-Hughes, Dr. Joshua Boston
Website: https://www.bgsu.edu/arts-and-sciences/democracy-and-public-policy-research-
network/bgsu-poll.html
Methodology Statement
YouGov interviewed 1080 Ohio registered voters, with the goal of screening for and surveying
likely voters. These Ohio registered voters were then matched down to a sample of 1010,
yielding a target subsample of 1000 Ohio likely voters. The respondents were matched to a
sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically
representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey
(ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey
(CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll,
and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. The matched
cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and
the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The
propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region.
The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame
and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020
presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race
(4-categories), and education (4-categories). The weighted dataset of Ohio registered voters
was then subsetted on likely voters, as determined by response to the question, "Thinking
ahead to the presidential election in November, how likely are you to vote?" Upon subsetting to
those who answered at least "somewhat likely," the weights were trimmed and recentered
around 1, to produce the final weights for Ohio likely voters.
Inquires can be directed to Dr. Robert Alexander at [email protected]; 419-306-2965
Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
Sample 1000 Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+, September 2024
Conducted September 18 – 27, 2024
Margin of Error ±3.6%
1. These days, many people are so busy they can’t find time to register to vote, or move around
so often they do not get a chance to re-register.
2. Thinking ahead to the presidential election in November, how likely are you to vote?
3. If the election were held today would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican
Donald Trump?
4. If the election for the U.S. Senate was held today would you vote for Democrat Sherrod
Brown or Republican Bernie Moreno?
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
5. If the election for the U.S. Congress was being held today, who would you vote for in the
congressional district where you live?
6. As you may know, state legislative districts and congressional districts must be redrawn after
each national census, including the 2020 U.S. Census. This process is known as redistricting.
This November Ohio voters will be asked to approve or reject Issue 1, a ballot measure
addressing redistricting. How much have you heard or read about Issue 1 in Ohio?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
A little . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Nothing at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
7. This November, voters will be asked whether they approve or reject Issue 1.
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
10. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with how redistricting is being handled in Ohio?
Very satisfied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Somewhat satisfied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32%
Somewhat dissatisfied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Very dissatisfied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
11. How important is it to you that Ohio’s maps prioritize more competitive districts, where a
candidate of one political party isn’t always guaranteed to win?
12. How important is it to you that Ohio’s maps reflect the state’s racial diversity?
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
13. How important is it to you that Ohio’s maps are not drawn by elected officials?
14. Do you think that the country is headed in the right direction or is off on the wrong track?
15. Do you think that Ohio is headed in the right direction or is off on the wrong track?
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
16. From this list, which one of the following is most important for you when you think about
voting in this November’s election?
Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Abortion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Guns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Opioid Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Conflict in the Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1%
Conflict in Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Health care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Threats to democracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Crime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
The Economy in general . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
LGBTQ+ Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Foreign affairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
17. Thinking about your own economic situation over the past year, do you feel your personal
economic situation has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
18. Over the past year, do you feel the nation’s economic situation has gotten better, gotten
worse, or stayed about the same?
19. Who did you vote for in the Ohio 2022 election for Governor, Democrat Nan Whaley or
Republican Mike DeWine?
20. How did you vote in Ohio’s November 2023 special election on Issue 1, where a "Yes" vote
would amend the constitution to make it easier for Ohioans to make reproductive decisions,
including abortion?
21. How did you vote in Ohio’s November 2023 special election on Issue 2, where a "Yes" vote
would amend the constitution to legalize recreational marijuana in Ohio?
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following is handling their job?
23. Is your opinion of each of the following people or organizations favorable or unfavorable?
Neither
favorable
Strongly Somewhat or Somewhat Strongly
favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable unfavorable
Donald Trump 30% 16% 4% 6% 43%
Kamala Harris 29% 14% 5% 6% 47%
Tim Walz 27% 13% 15% 8% 37%
JD Vance 21% 20% 12% 7% 40%
Sherrod Brown 26% 18% 14% 15% 28%
Bernie Moreno 12% 21% 20% 11% 36%
Democrats in
Congress 16% 23% 13% 15% 33%
Republicans in
Congress 11% 25% 16% 14% 34%
The US Supreme
Court 15% 26% 20% 16% 22%
Democrats in the
Ohio legislature 14% 22% 22% 20% 22%
Republicans in the
Ohio legislature 10% 27% 19% 15% 29%
The Ohio Supreme
Court 9% 26% 43% 13% 9%
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
24. We would like to know your thoughts on the current political environment.
Strongly Strongly
agree Agree Not sure Disagree disagree
The current political
environment has
strained relationships
between my family
and friends 13% 29% 13% 32% 13%
The current political
environment is as
toxic as it has been
at any point in my
lifetime 55% 29% 6% 7% 2%
People like me are
afraid to talk about
politics these days 15% 32% 9% 29% 15%
Answer Not sure to
this question - - 100% - -
It is important for
people who have
differences of opinion
to have
conversations with
one another 40% 45% 10% 4% 1%
I am worried about
the future of the
country due to the
current political
environment 47% 42% 5% 4% 2%
The current political
environment will lead
to increased violence
in the United States 37% 42% 16% 4% 2%
The current political
environment has
weakened the United
States on the world
stage 50% 32% 9% 6% 3%
When thinking about
the issues that divide
the nation, I believe
there are serious
threats to the future
of our democracy 46% 37% 10% 6% 2% 8
Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
25. When thinking about politics these days, how often do you feel...
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Survey of Ohio Likely Voters 18+
September 2024
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