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12 Probability
Getting started
1 The probability it will rain tomorrow is 0.15
Work out the probability it will not rain tomorrow.

E
2 A coin is flipped and a dice is rolled.
a Copy and complete this table of outcomes. Tip
H1 H4 H 1 = head and 1,
T1 T6 T 6 = tail and 6

3
b

PL
Work out the probability of
i head and 6
ii tail and an odd number.
A spinner has 5 different coloured sectors. In 50 spins it lands
on red 13 times.
a Work out the experimental probability of landing on red.
b If each colour is equally likely, work out the theoretical
M
probability of landing on red.
4 Work out
a 1+3 b 1×3
5 5 5 5
c 3 + 1 d 3×1
8 4 8 4
SA

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12 Probability

On Sunday 3 June 2012 there was a Jubilee Pageant in London.

One thousand boats travelled down the River Thames through the
city of London. The pageant was held to celebrate the fact that
Queen Elizabeth II had been on the throne for 60 years. The pageant
started at 14:30 and lasted about 3 hours. The chart shows a weather
forecast for London on that day.
City of London Youth Hostel
Sun 3 Jun Wind speed & Precipitation Air
UK local Regional Temperature direction Wind gusts Probability Feels like UV Quality
time warnings Weather (˚C) (mph) (mph) Visibility Humidity (%) (%) (˚C) index index
[BETA]

E
No
0100 10 11 24 Moderate 91 80 8 0
warnings

0400 No 10 Moderate 95 80
12 26 8 0
warnings

0700 No 10 Moderate 95 80
11 24 7 1

1000

1300

1600

1900
warnings

No
warnings

No
warnings

No
warnings

No
warnings

No
PL
10

10

10

10
10

6
No gusts

No gusts

No gusts

No gusts
Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate
93

94

92

91
80

80

80

60
8

8
1

1
2
M
2200 9 5 No gusts Moderate 93 60 8 0
warnings
Issued at 0900 on Fri 1 Jun 2012

The forecast was made on Friday morning, two days before the pageant.
It predicted the weather every two hours through the day. One column
shows the probability of precipitation – that means rain or snow. The
probability is given as a percentage. The forecast reported an 80%
SA

chance of heavy rain during the pageant. The thousands of spectators

were advised to take umbrellas. The forecast predicted no gusts of wind
during the pageant.
Weather forecasts are produced by complicated computer programs.
They are available for thousands of places throughout the world.
Weather forecasts are updated regularly. You can easily find them on the
internet. Try to find a weather forecast for a place near where you live.
On the day of the pageant, it was dry until about 16:00. After that it
rained steadily. There were no gusts of wind. In this unit, you will learn
more about predicting probabilities.

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12 Probability

12.1 Mutually exclusive events

In this section you will … Key words
• learn how to use addition to find probabilities mutually
exclusive
• use the fact that the total probability of all possible mutually
exclusive events is 1.

E
There are 25 balls, numbered from 1 to 25, in a bag.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 23 24 25
One ball is taken out at random. Here are some possible events:
• F: The number on the ball is a multiple of 5
•
•

of S, P(S) =
25
PL
S: The number on the ball is a multiple of 7
N: The number on the ball is a multiple of 9
These events are mutually exclusive. This means only one of them can
happen at one time. The multiples of 5 in the bag are 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25,
so the probability of event F, P(F) = 5 = 1 . Similarly, the probability
3
25 5
and the probability of N, P(N) = 2 .
The probability that F does not happen is 1 −
S does not happen is 1 − 3 = 22 .
5
25
1 = 4.
5
The probability that
Tip
P(F) means the
probability of
M
25 25 event F.
What is the probability that F or S happens? This means you get
5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 7, 14 or 21. There are 8 numbers, so the probability of
Tip
F or S, P(F or S) = 8 . There is an easier way to work this out: just add
25
This works
the probabilities of the separate events.
because the
SA

• P(F or S) = P(F) + P(S) = 5 + 3 = 8 events are

25 25 25
mutually
• P(S or N) = P(S) + P(N) = 3 + 2 = 5 =1 exclusive.
25 25 25 5
• P(F or S or N) = + + 2 = 10
5 3 = 2
25 25 25 25 5
The probability that none of F or S or N happens is 1 − 2 = 3
5 5

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12.1 Mutually exclusive events

Worked example 12.1

A spinner has sections in three different colours.
The probability of landing on red is 0.35. The probability of landing on blue is 0.2.
The probability of landing on gold is 0.1.
Work out the probability of landing on
a red or blue
b neither blue nor gold.

E
Answer
a P
robability of red or blue = probability of red + probability of blue = 0.35 + 0.2 = 0.55
b Probability of blue or gold = 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.3
So the probability of neither is 1 − 0.3 = 0.7

Exercise 12.1
1

2
PL
The probability a football team will win its next match is 60%.
The probability it will draw is 15%.
Work out the probability it will lose.
You roll a fair dice.
Work out the probability of rolling
M
a a3 b an even number
c a 3 or an even number.
3 Here are 10 numbered cards.

2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5
SA

A card is chosen at random.

Find the probability that the number on the card is
a 2 b 5
c 2 or 5 d neither 2 nor 5.
4 A bag contains a large number of coloured balls. The balls are yellow,
green, brown, blue and pink.
P(yellow) = 0.1 P(green) = 0.25 P(brown) = 0.35 P(blue) = 0.05
A ball is taken out of the bag at random.
Work out the probability that the ball is
a green or blue b brown or yellow
c yellow, green or brown d pink

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12 Probability

5 You roll 2 dice and find the total.

The probability of a total of 2 is 0.028
The probability of a total of 3 is 0.056
Work out the probability that the total is
a 2 or 3 b more than 3.
6 The temperature each day at midday can be low, average, high or
very high.
The forecast for Monday is
P(low) = 0.15 P(average) = 0.55 P(high) = 0.25

E
Work out the probability that the temperature on Monday is
a not low b low or average
c very high.
7 There are 50 people in a room. There are 7 girls, 13 boys and

8
c an adult
PL
19 women. The rest of the people are men.
One person is chosen at random.
Work out the probability that the person is
a a child b a female
d a male.
The letters of the word MUTUALLY are written on separate cards.
One card is chosen at random. Work out the probability that the
letter on the card is
M
a M b U
c L d M, U or L
e not M, U or L.
9 There are red, white, green and black counters in a box.
A counter is taken out at random.
SA

The probability the counter is red is 0.55

The other three colours are all equally likely.
Find the probability the counter is
a not red b red or white.
10 A spinner has three sectors labelled A, B and C.
The probability of landing on A is twice the probability of landing on B.
The probability of landing on B is twice the probability of landing on C.
Work out the probability of landing on each letter.

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12.1 Mutually exclusive events

11 There are counters of four different colours in a bag. A counter is

taken out at random.
This table shows the probabilities of different colours.
Colour gold silver bronze white
Probability 0.05 0.15 0.55
Find the probability that the counter is
a gold or silver b not gold Tip
c silver or bronze. ‘Between 1 and
100 inclusive’

E
12 A calculator generates a random number between
1 and 100 inclusive. means 1 and
Find the probability the number is 100 are included
in the possible
a a multiple of 10 b a multiple of 11 numbers.
c a multiple of 10 or 11 d not a multiple of 10 or 11.

Think like a mathematician

a
b
Work out P(yellow).
4
PL
13 You want to put black, white and yellow counters in a bag.
One counter will be chosen at random.
You want P(black) = 1 and P(white) = 2
3

What is a suitable number of counters of each colour to put in the bag?

M
Give a reason for your answer.

Summary checklist
I can use addition to work out probabilities of mutually exclusive events.
SA

I can use the fact that the total probability for mutually exclusive events is 1.

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12 Probability

12.2 Independent events

In this section you will … Key words
• learn about independent events independent
events
• use probabilities to show whether two events are
independent or not.

E
You flip a coin and then you roll a dice. Here are two events.
• A: a head on the coin
• B: a 4 on the dice
If A happens, the coin lands on a head. Then the probability of 4,

PL
P(4) = 1 . If A does not happen, the coin lands on a tail. Then the
6
probability of 4, P(4), is still 1 . Whether A happens or not does not
6
affect the probability of B. You say that A and B are independent events.
Now suppose you have 10 balls, numbered from 1 to 10, in a bag.
You take out one ball at random. Here are two events.
•
•
C: the number is odd
D: the number is less than 4
M
Suppose C happens. The number is 1, 3, 5, 7 or 9. Two of these numbers
are less than 4, and so P(D) = 2 . Now suppose C does not happen.
5
The number is 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10. Only one of these numbers is less than 4,
so now P(D) = 1 . The probabilities are not the same and so C and D
5
are not independent events. Whether C happens or not does affect the
SA

probability of D.

Worked example 12.2

You roll a fair dice.
Here are three events.
• X: the number is even
• Y: the number is more than 2
• Z: the number is a prime number
a Show that X and Y are independent events.
b Show that X and Z are not independent events.

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12.2 Independent events

Continued
Answer
a Suppose X happens. The number is 2, 4 or 6.
Two of these three numbers are more than 2, and so P(Y) = 2
3
Suppose X does not happen. Then the number is 1, 3 or 5.
Two of these three numbers are more than 2, and so P(Y) = 2
3
P(Y) has not changed, and so X and Y are independent.

E
b Suppose X happens. The number is 2, 4 or 6.
Only one of these numbers is a prime number, and so P(Z) = 1
3
Suppose X does not happen. Then the number is 1, 3 or 5.
Two of these numbers (3 and 5) are prime numbers, and so P(Z) = 2
3

Exercise 12.2
1

2
F: the first flip is a head
PL
P(Z) is not the same in both cases, and so the events X and Z are not independent.

A coin is flipped twice. Here are two events.

S: the second flip is a head
Explain why F and S are independent events.
A fair dice is rolled. Here are two events.
M
A: the number is 2, 3 or 4 B: the number is 1 or 2
Show that A and B are independent events.
3 A coin is flipped three times. Here are two events.
X: the first two flips are tails Y: all three flips are tails
Are X and Y independent events? Give a reason for your answer.
SA

4 A fair coin is flipped ten times.

Here are two events.
A: the first nine flips are heads B: the tenth flip is a head
Are A and B independent? Give a reason for your answer.
5 Here are two events.
A: there is fog at the airport B: the flight to Dubai leaves on time
Explain why these events are not independent.
6 There are ten cards in a pack.
Six cards have the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in red.
Four cards have the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 in black.

1 4 3 6 3 1 2 4 5 2

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12 Probability

a Here are two events.

R: the number is red E: the number is even
Are these independent events? Give a reason for your answer.
b Here are two events.
B: the number is black T: the number is 2
Are these independent events? Give a reason for your answer.
7 There are ten balls in a bag. Three balls are black and seven balls
are white.
a One ball is chosen at random and then replaced. Then a second

E
ball is chosen at random.
Here are two events.
F: the first ball is black S: the second ball is black
Are F and S independent? Give a reason for your answer.

9
A: Arun is late for school
a
PL
b The situation is the same as in part a, but this time the first ball
is not replaced.
Are F and S independent in this case? Give a reason for your answer.
Arun and Sofia attend the same school. Here are two events.
S: Sofia is late for school
Describe how A and S could be independent events.
b Describe how A and S could be events that are not independent.
Here are five cards.
M
A B C D E

A card is chosen at random.

Here are two events.
X: the letter is in the word CARD Y: the letter is in the word CODE
SA

Are these events independent? Give a reason for your answer, using
probabilities.

Summary checklist
I can explain whether two events are independent or not.

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12.3 Combined events

12.3 Combined events

In this section you will …
• calculate the probability that two independent events
both happen
• use a tree diagram to calculate the probabilities of
different outcomes.

E
If two events are independent, you can find the probability that both
events will happen by multiplying the separate probabilities. Suppose you
flip a coin and roll a fair dice.
•
•

• PL
The probability of a head on the coin, P(head) = 2
1

The probability of more than 2 on the dice, P(more than 2) = 4 = 2

The probability of both, P(head and more than 2) = 1 × 2 = 2 = 1

When you have two independent events, you can use a tree diagram to
show the outcomes and to calculate the probabilities.
2 3 6
6

3
3
M
Worked example 12.3
Here are two spinners. Each spinner is spun once.

5 1
D A
SA

4 2
C B
3

Find the probability of landing on

a an odd number and the letter A
b neither an odd number nor the letter A.

Answer
P(odd) = 3 P(A) = 1
5 4
P(not odd) = P(even) = 2 P(not A) = 1 − 1 = 3
5 4 4

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12 Probability

Continued
You can draw a tree diagram to show the four possible outcomes:
number letter outcome probability
1
4 A odd, A 3 1 3
× =
5 4 20
3 odd
5
3 not A odd, not A 3 3 9
× =
4 5 4 20 Write the

E
probabilities on
1 even, A the branches
A 2 1 2 1
2 4 × = = and multiply
5 5 4 20 10
even them to find the
probability of

a
3
4

PL not A

P(odd and A) = P(odd) × P(A) = 3 × 1 = 3

b P(even and not A) = P(even) × P(not A)
5
even, not A

4 20
= 2 ×=
5 4
3
2
5

6
=
×
3
4

3
20 10

You can see in the tree diagram in Worked example 12.3 that there are
four possible outcomes. The probability of each outcome is the product of
=
6
=
20 10
3
the outcome.
M
the probabilities on the branches. The sum of the four probabilities is 1:
3 + 9 + 2 + 6 = 20 = 1
20 20 20 20 20

Exercise 12.3
1 An unbiased coin is flipped twice. Work out the probability of
SA

a 2 heads b 2 tails
c a head and then a tail.
2 A fair dice is rolled twice. Find the probability of
a a 5 and then a 3
b an even number and then a 6
c a 2 and then an odd number.
3 A fair dice is rolled twice. Work out the probability of
a a multiple of 3 and then an even number
b a multiple of 3 both times
c not getting a 6 either time.

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12.3 Combined events

4 A spinner has two colours, red and green.

P(red) = 0.3 and P(green) = 0.7 red
The spinner is spun twice. Work out the probability of landing on
a red both times b green both times green
c red and then green d green and then red.
5 City and United are football teams.
The probability that City will win their next match is 0.8
The probability that United will win their next match is 0.6
They are not playing each other in their next match.

E
Work out the probability that
a both teams win their next match b City wins but United does not
c United wins but City does not d neither team wins its next match.
6 The probability that Arun is late for school is 0.1

These are independent events.

a
PL
The probability that Marcus is late for school is 0.15

Work out the probability that

i they are both late for school
ii Arun is late but Marcus is not
iii Marcus is late but Arun is not
iv neither of them is late for school.
M
b Check that the sum of your four answers in part a is 1. Why is this?
7 When you roll two dice and add the two numbers, the probability of a
total of 5 is 1
9
Sofia rolls two dice twice. She is trying to get a total of 5 each time.
a Copy and complete this tree diagram. Put probabilities on the branches.
SA

First Second outcome

5 5, 5

1 5
9
8 not 5 5, not 5
9

5 not 5, 5

not 5

not 5 not 5, not 5

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12 Probability

b Find the probabilities of the following events.

i Sofia gets 5 both times.
ii Sofia does not get a 5 either time.
iii Sofia gets a 5 the first time but not the second time.
vi Sofia does not get a 5 the first time but does get a 5 the
second time.
c There are four possible outcomes on the tree diagram.
Which of those four outcomes is the most likely?
Explain your answer.

E
8 A driver goes through two sets of traffic lights First Second outcome
on the way to work.
red red, red
The probability the first light is red is 0.3 0.6
The probability the second light is red red
is 0.6
a Copy and complete this
tree diagram.
b Find the probability that
i both lights are red PL
ii neither light is red
iii the first light is red but the
second light is not red
iv only the second light is red.
0.3

not red
not red

red

not red
red, not red

not red, red

not red, not red

M
c Show that the sum of the probabilities
in part b is 1. Why is this?
Blackbird Robin outcome
9 Zara is birdwatching.
The probability she sees a blackbird is 0.9 Yes Yes, Yes

The probability she sees a robin is 0.8

SA

Yes
a Copy and complete this tree diagram.
It shows whether she sees each type No Yes, No
of bird.
b Work out the probability that
Zara sees Yes No, Yes

i both birds
No
ii neither bird.
c Work out the probability that Zara No No, No
sees at least one of the birds.

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12.3 Combined events

10 Here are two spinners. The spinners show the probability

of landing on each colour.
First Second

Blue
Yellow 1
1 4
Blue 3 Yellow
2 3
3 4

E
Each spinner is spun once.
a Copy and complete the tree diagram.
First Second outcome

Blue

PL Blue

Yellow

Blue
Blue, Blue

Blue, Yellow

Yellow, Blue
M
Yellow

Yellow Yellow, Yellow

bWork out the probability of landing on
i blue both times ii yellow both times iii blue and then yellow
iii blue at least once iv yellow at least once.
SA

11 Zara throws a ball at a basketball hoop twice.

The probability that she gets a basket the first time is 0.4
The probability that she gets a basket the second time is 0.9
a Zara could get a basket either time. Show the probabilities of
the different possible outcomes in a diagram.
b What is the most likely outcome?
c Find the probability that Zara gets at least one basket.

Summary checklist
I can calculate the probability of two events by multiplying probabilities.
I can use a tree diagram to find probabilities.

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12 Probability

12.4 Chance experiments

In this section you will … Key words
• carry out and analyse experiments involving chance relative frequency
• look at experiments with large and small sample sizes
• compare relative frequencies with probabilities.

E
Zara rolls a dice 50 times. She is looking for sixes. Here are the results.

2 1 6 5 3 3 1 6 4 4
6 1 3 3 5 6 5 5 3 6
6
3
3
3
2
5
4
3
5
4
6
4
PL 5
6
5
6
6
6
The top row shows the first ten rolls. The frequency of a 6 in the top row
is 2. The relative frequency of a 6 after the first ten rolls is 2 = 0.2. After
20 rolls, the frequency of a 6 is 5 and the relative frequency is 5 = 0.25.
This table shows the changing relative frequency:
20
1
5
3
4
3
1

10
1
5
5
2
3
1
M
Rolls 10 20 30 40 50
Frequency 2 5 7 10 11
Relative frequency 0.2 0.25 0.233 0.25 0.22
You can show these values on a graph:
SA Relative frequency of 6

0.3

0.2
theoretical
probability of 6
0.1

0 10 20 30 40 50
Rolls of the dice
The theoretical probability of getting a 6 when you roll a dice is
1
6
= 0.167 to 3 d.p. The relative frequency will keep changing as Zara
rolls the dice more times.

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12.4 Chance experiments

Exercise 12.4
1 Two coins are flipped together 25 times. Both coins land on tails 3 times.
a Work out the relative frequency of two tails.
The experiment is repeated. This time both coins land on tails
7 times.
b Work out the relative frequency of two tails for the
second experiment.
c Put the two sets of results together and work out the relative
frequency of two tails.

E
2 Here is a spinner. The spinner is spun 200 times.
This table gives the frequencies of each colour:

Colour red white blue

3
a
Frequency 78 54

PL 68
Work out the relative frequency of each colour.
Give your answers as decimals.
b Each colour is equally likely. Compare the relative
frequencies with the probability of each colour.
Marcus rolls a dice 100 times. He counts the total number of
sixes after each set of 10 rolls. Here are his results:
Rolls 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Blue

90
White

100
Red
M
Total frequency 2 4 5 8 9 10 11 16 17 18
Relative frequency 0.2 0.2 0.167 0.18
a Copy and complete the table. Round the relative frequencies
to 3 decimal places if necessary.
b Draw a graph to show how the relative frequency changes.
SA

c Draw a horizontal line to show the probability of a 6.

4 Sofia flips a coin 100 times. She records the frequency of heads
every 20 flips.
Here are the results:
Flips 20 40 60 80 100
Frequency of heads 8 19 30 38 44
Relative frequency 0.4
a Calculate the missing relative frequencies. Copy and complete
the table.
b Draw a graph to show the changing relative frequencies.
c Compare the relative frequencies with the probability of the
coin landing on a head.

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12 Probability

5 You can answer this question with a partner. You will need two dice.
a Roll two dice. Record whether the total is 7 or more. Repeat this 50
times. After each 10 rolls, work out the relative frequency of 7 or more.
Record your results in a table as shown.
Rolls of two dice 10 20 30 40 50
Frequency of 7 or more
Relative frequency
b Show your relative frequencies on a graph.

E
c Use your graph to estimate the probability of a total of 7 or more.
d Compare your results with another pair. Do you have similar graphs?
Do you have the same estimate for the probability?
6 There are 20 black and white balls in a bag. Arun takes out one ball at
random and records the colour. Then he replaces the ball in the bag.

Here are his results:

a
Draws
Frequency
Relative frequency
PL
He repeats this 200 times. After every 20 balls, he counts the frequency of a
black ball.

20
10
0.5
40
14
60
27
80
36
100
42

Calculate the relative frequencies. Copy and complete the table.

120
50
140
55
160
62
180
70
200
79
M
b Show the relative frequencies on a graph.
c Estimate the numbers of black and white balls in the bag.
7 A calculator generates random digits between 0 and 9.
Arun generates 100 digits.
After each 20 digits he counts the number of 0s.
SA

Digits 20 40 60 80 100
Frequency of 0 2 5 7 7 8
Relative frequency
a Calculate the relative frequencies. Copy and complete the table.
b Show Arun’s relative frequencies on a graph.
Marcus carries out the same experiment. Here are his results:
Digits 20 40 60 80 100
Frequency of 0 2 6 8 9 15
Relative frequency
c Calculate the relative frequencies for Marcus. Copy and complete
the table.

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ISBN_9781108783774.
We are working with Cambridge Assessment International Education towards endorsement of this title.

12.4 Chance experiments

d Show Marcus’ expected frequencies on the same graph as Arun’s.

Sofia generates 500 digits. She finds the frequency of 0 after every
100 digits. Here are Sofia’s results:
Digits 100 200 300 400 500
Frequency of 0 11 27 40 52 60
Relative frequency
e Work out Sofia’s relative frequencies. Copy and complete the table.
f Show Sofia’s relative frequencies on a graph.

E
g What is the probability that a digit is 0? Compare this probability
with the relative frequencies in the three experiments.

Think like a mathematician

8

5
3
7
9
9
4
0
0
5
5
0
1
2
0
7
1
2
0
1
3
9
7
6
5
3
5
1
7
9
3
4
9
5
3
8
5
4
1
7
5
5
5
PL
You can work with a partner on this question.
Here is a table of 500 random digits between 0 and 9 generated by a spreadsheet.
5
5
3
0
1
0
0
8
0
1
7
7
1
8
6
7
4
9
2
0
0
6
4
4
0
7
5
4
3
7
3
5
9
2
2
0
2
1
1
1
1
9
4
3
0
6
2
0
2
8
2
4
9
7
9
7
6
1
1
7
1
0
5
9
6
6
7
8
0
3
8
2
3
4
2
8
5
6
6
8
8
0
9
6
7
2
1
4
8
9
8
6
9
5
2
5
5
6
7
7
4
0
8
6
4
4
1
4
M
1 9 2 8 2 2 0 0 2 7 9 9 0 7 5 4 0 3 1 7 0 3 5 2 8
2 2 8 5 0 2 2 1 8 1 5 3 0 7 4 9 2 3 8 6 3 9 2 4 6
9 0 5 4 2 0 4 8 1 6 4 3 9 9 2 9 2 3 0 6 5 3 6 6 4
3 2 1 9 6 0 8 7 5 2 4 1 1 6 3 2 0 3 4 4 7 1 6 0 6
9 2 4 6 2 6 0 0 7 2 9 8 8 6 4 7 6 4 8 5 7 6 8 2 2
2 4 0 7 0 2 9 6 2 9 2 4 1 9 7 6 8 8 2 1 3 0 7 3 1
SA

2 5 0 4 7 2 9 8 1 6 5 6 7 0 4 9 9 4 2 1 4 7 2 2 6
6 1 9 7 7 6 6 3 9 7 4 6 8 1 3 9 4 1 5 2 2 2 4 1 5
3 7 7 0 8 6 0 9 4 1 1 2 7 5 9 2 6 8 2 8 7 7 0 9 0
5 6 3 9 4 7 6 1 7 0 0 3 3 8 7 4 6 3 0 6 8 1 9 9 6
8 8 8 2 7 1 3 2 3 4 2 9 7 3 3 7 8 2 6 9 7 7 3 8 5
7 1 8 0 0 2 4 1 4 0 0 4 4 0 3 0 9 2 0 3 7 5 2 6 2
9 1 9 3 8 9 5 8 4 8 7 6 9 9 6 1 8 4 5 8 5 0 0 5 9
2 1 9 1 2 4 6 5 1 3 8 5 3 6 6 9 5 6 6 5 8 9 5 0 7
The probability that a digit has a particular value is 0.1

267
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ISBN_9781108783774.
We are working with Cambridge Assessment International Education towards endorsement of this title.

12 Probability

Continued
a Choose a sample of digits and find the relative frequency of one digit.
You can choose the digit and the sample size.
b Repeat the experiment with a different sample of digits. Use the same digit
and the same sample size.
c Compare the results of your experiments and the probability.
d Design a similar experiment of your own. You can choose your own sample size.
You could look at the combined frequency of several digits instead of just one

E
digit. Compare your relative frequency with an appropriate probability.

Summary checklist
I can analyse the results of an experiment involving chance.

PL
I can calculate relative frequencies and compare them with a probability.
M
SA

268
Original material © Cambridge University Press 2021. This material is not final and is subject to further changes prior to publication.
ISBN_9781108783774.
We are working with Cambridge Assessment International Education towards endorsement of this title.

12 Probability

Check your progress

Progress
Nimrah
1 Twothinks of are
fair dice a number,
rolled andn .the sum of the two numbers is found.
a WriteDescribe
an expression for the
two mutually number
exclusive Nimrah gets each time.
events.
a
b She multiplies
Describe the number
two events that arebynot
4. mutually b exclusive.
She subtracts 6 from the number.
2 cA fairShe multiplies
dice is rolled.the
Herenumber by 3events. d She divides the number by 6
are three
then
X: even adds 5.
number   Y: multiple of 3   Z: less than then4subtracts 1.
Copy
a the number
Show that X line
and and
Y areshow the inequality
independent on the number line.
events.

E
Writeb down Showthethat
inequality
X and Z that this
are not number line
independent shows.
events.
Work
3 Aout
bagthe valueten
contains of balls.
each Six
expression.
of the balls are green.
Loli lives with 3 friends.
A ball is chosen at random.They share the electricity bill equally between the four of
them.
The ball is replaced and then a second ball is chosen at random.

4
6

7
a

The
a
The
both
A spinner
amount
spinner
Simplify
a Work
spinner
balls
has they
these
are

PL
Write a formula to work out the amount they each pay, in:
Worki out the probability that ii
words
green

is expressions.
n + n +outn the relative
is spun
pay when

b 3cfrequency
another
+ 5c
30 times.
letters
Use your formula in part a ii to work out the
five equal
eachsectors coloured

of black.
It lands
Simplify these expressions by collecting like terms.
b 5c
a Work
+ 6cout
cWorkCompare
+ 2dthe relative
b 6cfrequency
+ 5k + 5c of + kblack
b neither ball is green.
red, green, black,
the electricity
spun 20 times. It lands on black 4 times.
c 9x − x
yellow and white.
bill is $96.

on black another 7 times.

c for3xy
all 50 spins.
+ 5yz
these out.the relative frequency with the probability of black.
− 2xy + 3yz
M
8
a 3 + (x × 2) b 6 (3 − w) c 4 (3x + 2) d 3 (7 − 4v)
9 Solve each of these equations and check your answers.
a n+3=8 b m − 4 = 12 c 3p = 24 d x=3
5

10 Shen has set a puzzle. Write an equation for
SA

the puzzle. Solve the equation to find the

value of the unknown number.

269
Original material © Cambridge University Press 2021. This material is not final and is subject to further changes prior to publication.
ISBN_9781108783774.