CAMBRIDGE

Primary Mathematics
Learner’s Book 6
Mary Wood, Emma Low,
Greg Byrd & Lynn Byrd

Second edition Digital access

9 Probability
Getting started
1 Choose the best position for each of these events on the likelihood scale.
Write the reason for each choice.

impossible unlikely even likely certain

chance

A You will have a bath this week.

B You will be dressed by 8am tomorrow.
C You will live to be 200 years old.
D You will go to the Moon next year.
E You will listen to the radio today.
F You will blink your eyes in the next 5 minutes.
2 Look at these cards.

1 3 4 4 1

Imagine taking a card without looking. Write ‘true’ or ‘false’ for each
of these statements.
a I am equally likely to take a 1 or a 4.
b I have an even chance of taking a 4.
c I am more likely to take a 3 than a 5.
d I am less likely to take a 1 than a 3.
3 Gabriela is conducting a chance experiment by flipping a coin
and recording whether it lands head up or tails up.
Gabriela says: ‘I have flipped a head. My next flip must be a tail
because there is an equal chance of flipping a head or a tail
and I have already flipped a head.’
Is Gabriela correct? Explain your answer.

122
9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood

Probability tells us how likely something is to happen.

This machine works by a player trying to control the claw to
pick up a toy.

If they pick up a toy then they win it. How likely do you
think it is to win a toy? How likely do you think it is to win
the football toy?
If you knew the likelihood of winning a toy how could that
help you decide whether to play the game?

9.1 Describing and predicting

likelihood
We are going to …
• describe the chance of outcomes using fractions and percentages
• learn about events that are mutually exclusive
• use likelihood to predict outcomes
• conduct chance experiments and describe the results.

If we can understand and describe the likelihood

of different events occurring then we can predict event equally likely outcomes
how likely they are to occur in the future. mutually exclusive events
outcome probability
probability experiment

123
9 Probability

We can use fractions and percentages to describe likelihood more precisely

than words. What do you think the percentages on this weather forecast mean?

0600 0700 0800 0900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400

13° 14° 15° 17° 18° 19° 20° 21° 21°

13% 15% 16% 15% 14% 16% 18% 20% 23%

1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300

21° 21° 20° 20° 19° 17° 16° 15° 14°

26% 29% 31% 32% 32% 30% 26% 21% 16%

Is it likely or unlikely to rain? When is it most likely to rain?

When is it least likely to rain?

Exercise 9.1
1 Copy and complete the sentences about the balls in the bag.
a The probability of a red ball being pulled from the

bag is .
4

b The probability of a yellow ball being pulled from

the bag is .
4

c The probability of a green ball being pulled from

the bag is or .
4 2

124
9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood

2 Write the probability of each of these events occurring as a fraction

and as a percentage.

1 2 4 7 9 1 4 6 7 8

a taking a red card b taking a 2

c taking a card with a value higher d taking a card that is not a 3.
than 4
3 Draw sets of cards that match the descriptions.
a There is a 25% chance of taking an 8.
5
b The probability of taking a card with a value less than 5 is .
6
c The chance of taking a 3 is greater than the chance of taking a 1.
d There is a 70% chance of taking a card with a value greater than 4.
e There is a 2 out of 5 chance of taking a 3.
4 Keran flips a coin and records whether the coin lands heads up,
or tails up.

1p

These are her results:

Tally Total

Heads up IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII 24

Tails up IIII IIII IIII I 16

a How many trials did Keran carry out?

b Does Keran’s experiment show that the coin is more likely to land
heads up or tails up?
c What does Keran’s experiments show is the experimental
probability of the coin landing tails up?

125
9 Probability

d Continue Keran’s experiment. Record your outcomes in a table.

e How many trials have you and Keran completed in total?
f What does the total experiment show is the experimental
probability of the pin landing point down?
g Ask your partner about how they chose how many more trials to
carry out in the experiment. Do they understand that larger
numbers of trials demonstrate the likelihood of an event
happening more than smaller numbers of trials?

Worked example 1

Which two of these events are mutually exclusive?

5 2
• Spin a 5.
3 4
• Spin a number greater than 2.
1
• Spin a number less than 4.

• Spin a 5. Mutually exclusive means that the events

• Spin a number greater than 2. cannot happen at the same time.

I could spin a 5, that would be both a 5 These events are not mutually exclusive.
and greater than 2.

• Spin a number greater than 2. These events are not mutually exclusive.
• Spin a number less than 4.
I could spin a 3, that would be both
greater than 2 and less than 4.
• Spin a 5. These events are mutually exclusive.
• Spin a number less than 4.
I cannot spin a number that is both
a 5 and less than 4.

126
9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood

5 Some children play a game with numbered tickets from 1 to 30.

They take a ticket without looking. If their number is odd they win a
small prize. If their number is a multiple of 10 they win a medium prize.
If their number is both odd and a multiple of 10 then they win a big prize.

t ticket
ticke ticket

20 2 17

Copy and complete this Venn diagram with the numbers 1 to 30.

odd multiples
numbers of 10

a Shade red the section of the diagram with the numbers that
would not win a prize.
b Shade blue the section of the diagram with the numbers that
would win a small prize.
c Shade yellow the section of the diagram with the numbers that
would win a medium prize.
d What is the chance of winning a big prize? Why?
e Are the events ‘taking an odd number’ and ‘taking a multiple
of 10’ mutually exclusive?

127
9 Probability

6 Look at the shapes in this bag.

Write ‘mutually exclusive’ or ‘not mutually exclusive’
for these pairs of events.
a Taking a shape that is red and taking a shape that
is blue.
b Taking shape that is red and taking a shape that
is a cone.
c Taking a shape with more than 5 faces and taking
a shape that is blue.

How confident do you feel about using the phrase

‘mutually exclusive’? Could you write it in a sentence?
Could you use it in a conversation? Could you explain
what it means to someone who does not know?

7 You have two six-sided dice. One is red and one is blue.

Imagine you are going to investigate these events:

Event A: You roll a double.
Event B: The sum of the two scores is even.
Event C: The score on the blue dice is greater than the score on the red dice.
Event D: You get a 6 on the red dice.
a Which events can happen at the same time?
i A and B? ii A and C? iii A and D?
iv B and C? v B and D? vi C and D?
b Which pairs of events are mutually exclusive?

128
9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood

c Imagine you have already rolled the red dice. It is a 6.

What is the chance of each of the events A, B, C and D happening now?

d Write two events of your own about the dice that not mutually exclusive.
e Write two events of your own about the dice that are mutually exclusive.
8 Look at this spinner.
Asubi uses his knowledge of likelihood and fractions to
predict that after 8 spins the spinner is most likely to land on:
• red 4 times
• blue 3 times
• yellow 1 time.
Predict how times each colour will be landed on for these
numbers of spins.
a 16 spins b 40 spins c 200 spins
9 Take a total of 10 red and blue objects. For example, counters,
cubes or beads.
a How many blue objects?
b How many red objects?
Hide the objects, for example in a bag or under a cloth of
piece of paper.
You are going to take, record and replace an object 20 times.
c How many red objects would you expect to take?
d How many blue objects would you expect to take?
e Conduct the experiment. Record the colour of the counters you
get in a tally chart.
f Describe your results. Do your results match your prediction?

129
9 Probability

Think like a mathematician

Vanessa makes this prediction:

There are 12 different outcomes when I roll two dice and add the numbers.
The chance of rolling a 12 is one out of twelve. I predict that if I roll
two dice 60 times I will most likely roll 12 five times.
Vanessa draws this table to record her results.

Number rolled Tally Total

10

11

12

Work with a partner to complete Vanessa’s investigation.

Talk about the investigation with you partner. Discuss:
• Do you think Vanessa’s prediction is a good prediction? Why?
• Is the result of your experiment what you expected? Why?
• What do you think would happen if you carried out more trials? Why?
Write about what you have discussed and found out.

130
9.1 Describing and predicting likelihood

Look what I can do!

I can describe the chance of outcomes using fractions and percentages.

I can say when two events are mutually exclusive.
I can use likelihood to predict outcomes.
I can conduct chance experiments and describe the results.

Check your progress

1 Describe the probability of these outcomes on the spinner.

1
8 2

7 3

6 4
5

a The likelihood of the spinner landing on 8 is out of .

b The likelihood of the spinner landing on red is out of .

c The probability of the spinner landing on a number greater than 7 is .

d The probability of the spinner landing on a number less than 3 is .

e The probability of the spinner landing on an even number is %.

f The probability of the spinner landing on a colour that is not red is %.

2 Song was interested in these 3 events about the spinner in question 1.

Event 1: The spinner lands on 5.
Event 2: The spinner lands on a number less than 6.
Event 3: The spinner lands on a multiple of 3.
Which two of Song’s events are mutually exclusive?

131