-

J v s-t i n c a S" e !

5 rv n S" to Win, wit'1

3 balls- remainin9 ...
Can Wes-till Win tl-iis-?

Contents
12:01 The language of probability 12:05 Using probability
12:02 Sample spaces and experiments Investigation 12:05 Choosing cards
12:03 The probability of simple events Maths terms, Diagnostic test, Assignments
12:04 What chance of survival?
Investigation 12:04 Describing probability

Syllabus references (See pages x-xiii for details.)

Statistics and Probability
Selections from Probability 1 [Stage 4]
• Construct sample spaces for single-step experi1nents with equally likely outcomes. (ACMSP167)
• Assign probabilities to the outcomes of events and determine probabilities for events. (ACMSP168)
• Identify complementary events and t1se the sum of probabilities to solve problems. (ACMSP204)

Working Mathematically
• Communicating • Problem Solving • Reasoning • Understanding • Fluency
We can describe the chance of something happening using either words or numbers.
(fifty-fifty) •
Words: impossible unlikely likely certain
even chance

Numbers : 0% or 0 between 0 and ! 50%, ! or O· 5 between ! and 1 100% or 1

PREP OUIZ 12:01

For each of the events listed below, estimate its chance to be:
A an even chance
B less than an even chance
C more than an even chance.
Give a reason for each answer.
1 If you toss a coin it will come down tails.
2 The next time you catch a bus it will break down.
3 On your next birthday you will be given a present.
4 You will score 100 runs when you next play cricket.
5 The next child born in the nearest hospital will be a girl.

6 Match each term in the middle column below to its meaning and its percentage chance
of occurring, e.g. 'impossible': 0%, 'The event will never happen.'

impossible

0% certain The event is more likely to happen than not.

50% unlikely The event is more likely not to happen.

between 50% and 100% likely The event will always happen.

100% even chance The event will never happen.

between 0% and 50% fifty-fifty chance The event is as likely to happen as not.

no chance

12 Probability
WORKED EXAMPLE Y-\t random' meanS"
Order the following events from least likely to most likely. 'witJ,, o vt Ioo kin
A A normal dice is rolled. The result is either a 1, a 2 or a 3.
B The next person to walk into the classroom
has a birthday in December.
C If I pick a counter at randoni_ fro1n this
group, it will be red.

Solution
The least likely option is B, because December is 1 of 12 possible months in which a person
could be born. For a person to be born in December is unlikely.

The next most likely is A, because half of the possible dice rolls will be successful. To roll a
1, 2 or 3 is a fifty-fifty (or even) chance.
The most likely is C, because 4 out of 6 counters are red, which is more than half. It is more
likely than not that a red counter would be chosen.

D a What does it mean for something to be impossible?

b What does it mean for something to be certain?
c What does it mean for an event to have an even chance of happening?
d What does it mean for an event to be unlikely to happen?
fl Choose a label that describes the chance of each event happening.
even chance
impossible unlikely very likely certain
(fifty-fifty)

a You will travel on a train next week.

b Your next teacher will be more than 50 years old.
c You will get more than 95% in your next Maths test.
d You will see a living Tyrannosaurus rex today.
e If you roll a dice you will get a number less than 7.
f If you toss a coin it will come up tails.

IJ a Arrange Question 2 parts a to c in order from least likely to most likely.

b Arrange Question 2 parts d to f in order from least likely to most likely.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

B For each event, choose one of these categories:
impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely, certain.
a A dice is rolled. ,,,,--- --
Event 1: A 6 is rolled.
>- - -
- -

Event 2: A number less than 4 is rolled. ' ' ' ' •,

Event 3: A number greater than 3 is rolled. ' '
Event 4: A zero is rolled.
Event 5: A number less than 7 is rolled.
b A ball is drawn at random from the jar shown.
Event 1: The ball is green.
Event 2: The ball is brown.
Event 3: The ball is red.
Event 4: The ball is coloured.
Event 5: The ball is either green or blue.
c One card is chosen at random from these five cards.
3 2 2
Event 1: The card is a heart V .
• + •
Event 2: The card is less than 8.
Event 3: The card is a diamond +.
Event 4: The card is a 2.
Event 5: The card is not a 3. 4'
9
Order the following events from least likely to most likely.
a A dice is rolled.
A The number showing is even. -
8 The number showing is larger than 4. ' ••
c The number showing is less than 6. ' •'

b A ball is drawn at random from the jar shown at right.

A The ball is brown.
8 The ball is green.
C The ball is blue or red.

c One card is chosen at random from these five cards.

A The card is a 2.
8 The card is a 7 . 7
c The card is greater than 3. •

II a Research the meaning of complementary events.

b Give two examples of complementary events.

12 Probability
•

When we carry out a chance (random) experiment, it is important to know what outco1nes are
possible. The set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.

PREP QUIZ 12:02

List all possible outcomes when we:
1 toss a coin 2 roll a normal dice
3 choose a ball from bag A 4 choose a ball from bag B
5 choose a ball from bag C 6 choose a ball from bag D
7 spin spinner E 8 spin spinner F
9 spin spinner G 10 spin spinner H

F G H

00

Probability terms you should know

• sample space The set of all possible outcomes of a random process.
e.g. If you roll a nor1nal dice once, the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

•chance An experiment where the outcomes are random, in that they occur by chance,
•
experiment e.g. choosing a coloured ball from a bag without looking.

• trial One case of carrying out an experiment, e.g. spinning a spinner once.

• chance event A category that relates to a chance experiment, e.g. rolling a 3 or 4 on a

nor1nal dice.

• favourable An outcome from a trial that fits the category or the event being considered.
outcome e.g. A coin toss coming up heads is a 'favourable' outcome if we are
counting the number of heads tossed in 10 tosses (or trials).

• equally likely A situation where the outcomes have the same chance of occuring in
outcomes any trial, e. g. picking a card from a standard pack.

• probability The chance of an event happening, given in words, as a fraction, as a

decimal or as a percentage.
e.g. The probability of a coin toss coming up heads is 50%.

• complementary The complement of an event happening is that the event does not happen.
events e.g. 'Our team wins' and 'our team does not win' are complementary
events.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

D Write the sample space for each of these experiments.
a I will toss a coin to see which side shows.
b I will drop a drawing pin onto the table to see how it lands.
c I will drop a cone (3D solid) onto the floor to find how it lands.
d I will ask a person I see, 'Have you met the Prime Minister?'
e I will roll a normal dice to see what number is showing on the top face.
f I will choose a card from a standard pack to see which colour I select.

Read this passage and answer the following questions.

Trinh wanted to find the experimental probability of rolling 'a number greater than 4'
on a normal dice. To do this, she rolled a normal dice 50 times.
a When Trinh rolled a dice, was this a chance experiment? Why is this so?
b What did Trinh roll on her first trial?
c What chance event was being considered by Trinh?
d What is the sample space of a roll of the dice?
e Was the result ofTrinh's first trial a favourable result?
f For each roll of the dice, are the outcomes equally likely?
g Is the probability of rolling 'a number greater than 4' greater or less than 50%?
El The spinner shown is spun once.
a What is the sample space?
b Is the chance of spinning each colour equally likely? Explain your answer.
c Which is the most likely outcome? d Which is the least likely outcome?
B a If three coins are tossed, what are the possible outcomes?
b Are all of the possible outcomes equally likely?
c Carry out this experiment at home to check your answer to part b.

II A standard pack of playing cards consists of the cards Ace (A), 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
Jack CT), Queen (Q) and King (K), in each of the four suits: hearts 'I , diamonds +,
clubs "9 and spades •.All of the hearts are shown below. The Jack, .• .• ... .•
2 2 2 -

Queen and King are called' court cards' (or 'picture cards'). • ! • i •t •
•A
•• •• . ••• i• i . i• ••
. • ... • ••
••
•• ••• . •••• .• • •• •• t t1
v z £ 5

•••••
...
••••• ••• .
It
.,
<+-
.
. . .
•••
• ••• •••
•. • • • 1 nr
.
One card is chosen at random from a standard pack.
a List the sample space if we are considering the type of card but not its suit.
b List the sample space if we are considering only the suit.
c List the sample space if each card is considered to be different.

II In your own words, explain the meaning of each term:

a sample space b chance event c complementary events
d probability e favourable outcome f equally likely outcomes

12 Probability
•

PREP OUIZ 12:03

True or false? Give a reason for each answer.
1 On my last three attempts to jump 1·5 metres, I failed. I am likely to succeed the next
time I try.
2 If I roll two dice, their total must be 12 or less.
3 If I choose at random a number between 1 and 10, it will have 1 digit.
4 Even if I have tossed 4 heads in a row, the chance of getting a head with the next toss of
a coin is an even chance.
5 If I choose at random a counter from a jar that contains 999 red counters and 1 yellow
counter, it is sure to be red.

The probability of so1nething happening is its chance of happening.

We often use probability in everyday life: 'Where is the most likely place to find my wallet?' 'How
can I best avoid an accident?' 'Which is the most likely answer?' 'Is it possible that a pedestrian
will step out from behind that car?'
• Probability can be expressed as words, e.g. 'There is an even chance that we will win'.
• Probability can be expressed as a fraction, e.g. 'Our chance of winning is!'.
• Probability can be expressed as a decimal, e.g. 'Our chance of winning is 0·5'.
• Probability can be expressed as a percentage, e.g. 'We have a 50% chance of winning'.

impossible even chance certain

I I
' I

unlikely likely

0 0·5 1
0% chance 50% chance 100% chance
(It will never happen.) (It should happen (It will always happen.)
half of the time.)

An unlikely event has a probability of between 0% and 50%.

There is- a 25°/o
A likely event has a probability of between 50% and 100%. chance of
choos-in a heart

If all outcomes are equally likely, then the probability of an

event A is given by:
number of favourable outcomes
p (A ) = - - - - - - - - - -
n
where n is the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

When all outcomes are equally likely, the event is called a simple event.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

WORKED EXAMPLES
1 One of these pictures will be chosen at random. What is the probability that the picture
chosen is of the following?
a a woman
b a man
c a man or a woman
d someone wearing a hat
2 What is the probability that this spinner will stop on red?
-----.....
Solutions
1 a P(a woman) == or 75%i
b P(a man) == %or 25%
c P(a 1nan or a woman) == or 100% t
i
d P(wearing a hat) == or 75%
2 There are 8 sections on the spinner, so the number of outcomes is 8.
There are 2 favourable (red) outcomes.
number of favourable outcomes
P (re d) == - - - - - - - - - - - - -
n
2
-- -
8
1
== - or 0 · 25 or 25%
4

D List all possible outcomes of each chance experiment (i. e. list the sample space).
a A dice is rolled.
b A coin is tossed.
c This spinner is spun.
d A coloured ball is chosen from
the jar at right.
Note: If there were two green balls,
we would name them 'green 1' and 'green 2'.

How many outcomes are in each sample space?

a A number between 4 and 7 is chosen at random.
b A ticket is chosen from tickets numbered 1 to 99.
c A ticket is chosen from tickets numbered 0 to 100.
d Ten different cards are placed in a hat and one is chosen at random.

12 Probability
Liam rolls a dice.Write, as a fraction, the probability that he will roll:
a a2 b a zero --
c an even number d an odd number
-
>- - - -

e either a 1 or a 6 f a nu1nber less than 4 ' ' ' ••

g a number less than 7 h a number other than 2. ' ' '
B A coin is tossed.
a Write, as a fraction, the probability of tossing:
i a head ii a tail.
b Write, as a percentage, the probability of tossing:
i a head ii a tail.

El The spinner at right (marked 1 to 5) is spun. Write, as a

fraction, the probability of spinning:
a a3 b a number that is not 3
c an even number d a zero.
II What is the probability, as a fraction, that each spinner below will stop on red?
a b c d

II Write each of the probabilities in Question 6 as a percentage.

II Use the diagrams in Question 6 to find the probability that each spinner will stop on blue,
as a fraction and as a percentage.

IJ a What is the probability, as a fraction, that this spinner will stop on:
i yellow ii blue iii red?
b Are the outcomes in part a equally likely?
c What do you get when you add all three possible spinner
probabilities together?

Event: tossing a coin

P(head) =
P(head) + P( tail) = 1
P(tail) = !
Event: rolling a dice
P(1) = t P(2) = t P(3) = t • •
• •
P(4)=t P(S)=t P(6)=t •• •
•

P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(S) + P(6) = 1

The sum of the probabilities of the possible outcomes is 1 or 100%.
'Rolling a 6' and 'not rolling a 6' are complementary events, so their probabilities add to 1.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

B c

Counters have been slid into these narrow containers. One counter will be chosen at randon1.
from each container. For each container, find the probability of choosing:
a a red counter b a blue counter c a yellow counter
d a counter that is either red or blue e a counter that is not red.

m The 5 on this dice is covered by a sticker showing a red 1.

When I roll this dice, what is the probability that I will roll:
a a1 b a3 c 3 or less '
d a5 e a number greater than 1?

Naomi approaches a roundabout from the west.

To leave the roundabout she chooses one of the
other exit roads at random.
a What is the probability that she chooses the
dead end?
b What is the probability that she does not choose
the dead end (i.e. the complement of part a)?

Of 100 tickets sold in a raffle, Luke bought 10, Heather bought 5 and Alan bought 1.A ticket
was chosen at random to determine who won the prize.What is the probability that the prize
was won by:
a Alan b Luke c Heather d none of these three people?
How many of the 100 tickets would I need to buy to make my chance of winning be the
following? Explain why.
e 0 f 1
I! A B C

For which of these spinners is the probability of spinning a 3 equal to the following?
a 20% b 25% c 13
From the 13 cards shown below, one card is chosen at random.What is the probability that
the card chosen is:
a the 7 b the Ace c a picture card d a heart ¥
e a spade • f either a 9 or a 10 g a card that is not a picture card?

A
•

12 Probability
(D From a standard pack of 52 cards, a card is chosen at random. What is the probability that the
card will be:
a a diamond + b a red card c not a red card d a3
e a picture card f either an Ace or a King g a card that is not the Ace of hearts?

•
•
Lost in the outback, Mac the prospector decides to WJ,,icJ,, do
follow whatever tracks he finds, because some of the --..I. Ch
tracks are sure to lead to water. When he comes to a
point where there is more than one path to choose
from, he is just as likely to choose any of them.

In each of the cases below, Mac begins with a number

of'life chances' and we will work out how many of
these 'chances' lead to water.After we have found what
o•
•
fraction of his chances lead to water, we can calculate
his percentage chance of survival.

Note: Mac never retraces his steps.

WORKED EXAMPLE
Starting with 16 life chances, work out Mac's percentage chance of survival for the following
tracks. At each fork in the track, the life chances must be shared equally among the new tracks.

Solution
From the diagram, we can see that 6 out of
16 life chances reach water.

:. Mac's chance of survival Water

3 ft JB625 16
Mac
= x %
21 }6 1
8
2
= 75%
2 2
Water

!
Mac has a 3 7 % chance of survival.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

Find Mac's percentage chance of survival for each of the following cases.

D Start with 4 life chances. lfl Start with 8 life chances.

Mac
Mac

EJ Start with 8 life chances. B Start with 12 life chances.

Mac
Mac Water

II Start with 24 life chances. II Start with 32 life chances.

Water Water

Mac Mac
Water

Water

II Start with 24 life chances. D Start with 96 life chances.

Water
Water

Mac
Mac
Water

Water Water

12 Probability
In the following questions find the chance (as a percentage)
Note: If we start with 100 life chances,
that Mac will find water without having to turn back.
the answer will be a percentage.

II Start with 100 chances. mJ Start with 100 chances.

Mac
Mac

ID Start with 100 chances. IE Start with 100 chances.

Mac
Mac

INVESTIGATION 12:04 DESCRIBING PROBABILITY

1 Describe a chance experiment in which the
outcomes are equally likely. TJie probability of
9r0Win9 a money tree i5' .. .,
2 Describe a chance experiment in which the
outcomes are not equally likely.

3 Design a six-sided dice so that the outcome '2' is

two times as likely as the outcome '3', while the
outcome '4' is three times as likely as the
outcome '3'.

4 Design a spinner with the colours red, white and

blue so that spinning 'white' is three times as - Oc;.
•
-
likely as spinning 'red', while spinning 'blue' is
twice as likely as spinning 'white'.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

•

PREP OUIZ 12:05

1 A fair coin is tossed. Write as a percentage the probability of tossing a head.
2 The same fair coin is tossed again. Write as a fraction the probability of tossing a tail.
3 If the fair coin is tossed and shows heads four times in a row, is the chance of tossing a head
the next time still 50%?

True or false?
4 If the probability of an event is 50%, the event should happen about half the time.
5 An even chance is the same as a 50% chance or a fifty-fifty chance.
6 If the probability of an event is 0·0001, it will never happen.
7 If an event is impossible, it will hardly ever happen.

Write the sample space for each of the following:

8 a coin is tossed 9 a normal dice is rolled 10 a suit is chosen from a standard pack of cards.

The theoretical probability of an event A is found using the formula:

We
P(A) = number of favourable outcomes formula in 12:03.
n
For this formula to work, each outcome needs to be equally likely.
We also need to know how many outcomes (n) there are.

But what can we do when these things are not known?

Answer:
• We can carry out an experiment many times, to estimate the
probability from the results.
This would give us the experimental probability.
• We can collect statistics that would help us make an
informed judgement.
This would allow us to make a subjective estimate.

Experimental probability
If we don't know the probability of an event, we can carry out an experiment many times to
see how often the event occurs. The more trials we use, the more reliable our estimate of the
probability will be.
Subjective estimate
We can use information gathered through investigation to estimate probability. The accuracy
of this estimate is increased if we increase the amount of information we gather.

For example: if an event has occurred 31 % of the time in the past, then we could estimate that its
t1
probability is 31 %. (This could also be written as 1 or O· 31.)
• If the probability of drawing a red counter from a bag is 4%, then in 100 trials we would
expect to draw out a red counter about 4 times. We call this the expected result.

12 Probability
• If there is a 4% chance of an event happening, then there is a 96% chance that it will not
happen, i.e. 100% - 4% == 96%. The chance of an event happening and the chance of it not
happening are called complementary events.

WORKED EXAMPLES
1 I want to know the chance of choosing a red counter at random from a bag of counters.
I don't know the colours of the counters in the bag or the number of counters.

Method Conclusions
I drew a coloured counter from the bag, The experimental probabilities of choosing
noted its colour and then returned it each counter are as follows:
to the bag. I repeated this experiment • red counter 40%
100 times and recorded the results in the • blue counter 27%
table below. •yellow counter 15%
• white counter 18%
Colour of counters chosen in 100 trials
We cannot be sure that other colours are not
Red - ,_
- ,_
- ,_
- ,_ 40
also in the bag.
-- -
-
-
-
-
- ,_

The experimental probability would be more

Blue - - - - 27
,_ ,_ ,_
- accurate if we had done 500 trials. The more
- r-
trials, the closer we should get to the
Yellow - r-
- r-
- r-
15 theoretical probability.
White - i-
- ,_
- ,_ I 18 From these results, we would expect that a red
counter would be chosen about 40% of the time.

2 After researching the weather for August over the last 10 years, Rachel found that it had
rained only 10% of the time. The table shows the information she gathered.

Weather Number of days Conclusions

in August (over 10 years) number of cloudy days
p (C1OUdy ) :=: - - - - - - - - -
Cloudy 132 number of days
:=: 132 x 100 %
Raining 31
310 1
Sunny 147 :=: 42. 6%
. . ) number of raining days
P (ra1n1ng == - - - - - - - - -
Limitations number of days
• Only 310 days are considered _ 31 100
(10 years X 31 days).
- x /0
310 1
• Weather patterns may be changing :=: 10%
•
over time. number of sunny days
• The categories are not clear. Would P (sunny ) == - - - - - - - - -
number of days
scattered showers be called 'raining'
or' cloudy'? 147 x 100 %
:=:

310 1
==47·4%

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

- - - · ···-- ··- .. "
1:1
'

Exercise 12:05 Im
Foundation worksheet 12:05
Using probability

D Use one of the terms impossible, very unlikely, unlikely, even chance, likely, very likely or certain to
rewrite each statement.
a Parramatta is expected to continue its winning way this Saturday.
b We predict early showers today.
c The drought has been severe and we are hoping it might rain tomorrow.
d We believe that our company is on the rocks.
e This election is a cliffhanger between the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Coalition.
f Everybody overboard! The ship is doomed!

7 women and 4 men draw straws to decide who will buy morning tea. (To draw straws is a
way of making a random choice.) What is the probability that the person chosen is:
a a man b a woman c not a woman
d not a man e either a 1nan or a woman?

IJ I have 3 pairs of shoes in a box. I have chosen one shoe and must now choose a second shoe
at random. What is the probability that the second shoe:
a will match the first
b will not match the first?

B To find the probabilities of choosing coloured counters at random from a bag of counters,
I drew a counter from the bag, noted its colour and then returned it to the bag. I repeated
this experiment 100 times and tallied the results.

Colour of counters chosen in 100 trials

Blue - r-
- r-
- - - - I 24
Red - r-
- r-
-
- - - - - I 28
White -- - - - - 26
- r-
- - - I
Yellow - r-
-
r-
-
-
-
- II 22
What is the experimental probability of choosing:
a a red counter b a blue counter
c a yellow counter d a white counter?
e Could there be the same number of each colour in the bag?
f Could there be five different colours in the bag?
g Use the experimental probability to estimate the number
of each colour in the bag if there are 50 counters in total.

12 Probability
El After researching the weather for May over the Weather Number of days
last 2 years, Rhonda found that it had rained
in May (over 2 years)
about 20% of the time. She decided to choose the
4th of May as her wedding date. The table at right Cloudy 22
shows the information she gathered. Raining 12
Use the table to find the experimental probability
(to the nearest per cent) that on a day in May the Sunny 28
weather will be:
a raining b cloudy
c sunny d not sunny.
e Is it possible that every day in May will be sunny?

II In a bag I have 3 red counters and 7 blue counters. I draw one counter from this bag, record
its colour and then return it to the bag. What would be the expected result for each colour if
I carry out this experiment:
a 100 times b 50 times?

II What would be the expected result (for each possible outcome) if

a a coin is tossed 40 times
b a normal dice is rolled 60 times
c 80 babies are born in a hospital?

II My last ten cricket batting scores were 0, 33, 14, 87, 15, 8, 2, 10, 49 and 50. If one of these
scores is selected at random, what is the probability that it will be:
a 0 b greater than 40 c greater than 100
d less than 50 e between 5 and 30 f less than 100?

II If I toss a coin three times and record the results in order, there are eight possible outcomes:
(head, head, head), (head, head, tail), (head, tail, head), (head, tail, tail), (tail, head, head),
(tail, head, tail), (tail, tail, head) and (tail, tail, tail). If I toss a coin three times, what is the
probability of getting:
a three heads b two heads c one head
d no heads e at least one head?

Im 300 tickets are to be sold in a raffle.

How many tickets must I buy to have:
a a 10% chance of winning
b a 30% chance of winning
l
c a probability of of winning
d a probability of 1 of winning?

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

INVESTIGATION 12:05 CHOOSING CARDS
• Have someone else choose 10 cards from a standard pack, then shuffle them.

• Choose one of these cards at random, record its suit (hearts .,, diamonds + ,clubs "9 or
spades •) in a tally, then return the card and shuffle the cards again. Do this 50 times.

• After 50 trials, write your experimental probability of choosing each suit from this set of
10 cards.
-
Tally Total Experimental probability (%)
., .,
• •
... ...
• •
• Compare your results with the actual numbers of each
suit that are in the set of 10 cards.

• Write a conclusion to your investigation.

-
<(*.-t>

12 Probability
MATHS TERMS 12
at random impossible
• a way of choosing that does not affect the • cannot happen, not possible
likelihood of any outcome • having a probability of zero (i.e. 0%)
•
certain probability
• sure, inevitable • the chance of an event happening
• a probability of 1 (i.e. 100%) • probability must be in the range 0 to 1
complementary events (i.e. 0% to 100%)
• the complement of an event is all possible • Probability =
outcomes not in that event, number of favourable outcomes
e.g. the complementary event to rolling a total number of outcomes
six is not rolling a six n(E)
• P(E) = where
• the probabilities of an event and its n
complement add to 1 n(E) = number of ways the event E can
equally likely outcomes occur
• a situation where each outcome has the n = number of possible outcomes
same chance of occurring, (i.e. the number in the sample space)
e.g. picking any particular card from a sample space
standard pack • all of the possible outcomes,
even chance (or fifty-fifty chance) e. g. The sample space for tossing a coin is
• there is an equal chance of the event head, tail.
happening or not happening, simple event
e.g. a coin toss coming up heads • an event where each outcome is equally
• 50% chance of happening and 50% likely
chance of not happening standard pack of cards
event • 4 suits are used:
• a category that relates to a chance
experiment,
•
+
hearts diamonds clubs spades
e.g. rolling a 3 or 4 on a fair dice • 52 cards are used, 13 in each of the four
favourable outcome suits: Ace (A) , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
• an outcome from a trial that fits the Jack (J), Queen (Q) and King (K)
category or the event under consideration, in each suit
e.g. a coin toss coming up heads is a • 'picture cards' (or' court cards') are Jacks,
'favourable' outcome if we are counting Queens and Kings (12 in total)
the number of heads tossed in 100 tosses
J Q K.--::-::-9
heads and tails ''; ' '¥
• each coin has two
sides, a 'head' and
a 'tail'
trial
• one case of carrying out an experiment,
• • •
e. g. spinning a spinner once
-- --- _. --- _,.- .- -- -- ------ .-_ ... -_.--_--_.---_. _,.· __ __ .-- .. -' .. - __ - ,-_-- __ . __ ___ - __ --_,...---_-··.,.,.. _.- -----·--.·· _--_- __ .--_.- __ - -- -
,....-_- - -·-- -- - .- - -- _. ... - -- - .

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

PROBABILITY
Each section of the test has similar items that test a certain type of example.
Errors in more than one item will identify an area of weakness.
Each weakness should be treated by going back to the section listed.

1 Order the fallowing events A, B and C from least likely to most likely. 12:01
a A A dice is rolled. The result will be either a 1, a 2 or a 3.
B The next person to walk into our classroom will have their birthday
in December.
C A red counter picked at random from a group containing one green,
one yellow and four red cot1nters will be red.
b When I roll a dice:
A I will roll a zero
B I will roll a number less than 3
C I will roll a number greater than 3.
2 List all possible outcomes for the following: 12:02
a A coin is tossed. b A dice is rolled.

3 How many outcomes are in each sample space below? 12:02

a A dice is rolled.
b A card is selected from a standard pack of cards.
4 One of these pictures is chosen at 12:03
random.What is the probability that
the picture chosen is of
a a woman
b aman
c someone wearing a hat
d someone who is not a man?

5 A letter is chosen at random from the vowels a, e, i, o and u. What is the probability 12:03
that it is:
a either the a or the e b a vowel
c the letter t d a letter that is not u?
7 12:05
6 a Luke's chance of clearing the high jump is 10 What
• is Luke's chance of not
clearing the highjump?
b There is a probability of 25% of choosing a club "9 from a pack of cards. If we
drew a card from the pack 200 times, returning the card each time, what would
be the expected result for 'choosing a club'?
c What would be the expected result for 'heads' if I tossed a coin 300 times?

12 Probability
ASSIGNMENT 12A Chapter review
1 Choose one of these labels for the 5 a What does it mean for an event to have
probability of each event described below. an 'even chance' of happening?
b What does it mean for four events to
impossible unlikely even chance
have an 'equal chance' of occuring?
likely certain 6 One of these shapes is chosen at random.
If I throw a fair dice, the result will be: oooo O O D
a even b a2 Write the probability (as a percentage)
c a zero d less than 7. of choosing:
2 Of 100 tickets in a raffle, Hiro bought 70, a an oval
Mia bought 25, Marika bought 3 and b a square
Vu bought none. One ticket is chosen c a quadrilateral.
at random. What is the chance that it was 7 This bag contains 10 coloured counters.
bought by: One counter is taken at random from
a Hiro the bag. Write the probability (as a
b Mia decimal) that the counter will be:
c Marika a red
d someone other than Marika? b yellow
c blue 0 0
3 a If a coin is tossed, is a head more likely
d not blue 0 000
than a tail? Explain your answer.
e red or blue
OO O
b If two coins are tossed, what could be
the result? f not red or blue.
c When a dice is rolled, Suri wins if an 8 What is the sample space for choosing one
even number is rolled, Arlo wins if a 5 is shape from those in Question 6?
rolled and Luke wins if a 1 or 3 is rolled.
9 What is the probability of choosing a King
Write the na1nes in order of their
from a standard pack of cards?
chance of winning.
10 What is the complementary event to
4 This spinner is spun once.Write the
'choosing a King from a standard pack
chance (as a fraction) of spinning:
of cards'?
a red
b green
c yellow
d brown
e red or yellow
f red, green or yellow.

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7

ASSIGNMENT 128 orkin mathematically
1 How many triangles 4 Causes of disability:
can you find in this figure? Young men

2 The Eiffel Tower in Paris is 312m high.

500 sheets of paper make a pile 55 mm Accident Sickness
high. How many sheets of paper would
make a pile as high as the Eiffel Tower? Young women
(Answer correct to the nearest 1OOO.)
3 If 24 Hin a D stands for 24 Hours in a Day,
what might the fallowing cryptic
statements mean?
a 365 Din aY . .. .
..
,,
Accident Sickness
b 9 L of a C , .. Compare the results for young men and
c 52 Cina S P
young women shown above.
d 26 Lin the A
a What information is communicated by
e 12 Min aY
this graph?
f 1000Y in a M
b What could account for the clifferences
g 64 Son a CB in the results for men and women?

5 Natural sources of vitamin C

Fruits Vegetables
Apples 16 Cabbages 60

Blackcurrants 200 Carrots 6

Cauliflowers 70

Oranges 50

Pineapples 30

Tomatoes 25

The figures quoted show the average number of milligrams of vitamin C per 100 g.

a Which fruit is the richest source of vitamin C?

b Which vegetable is the richest source of vitamin C?
c How many grams of tomatoes must be eaten to provide the same amount of vitamin C as
100 g of oranges?
d The recommended daily intake of vitamin C is 32 mg. If I eat 50 g of an apple and 50 g of
an orange, how many milligrams short of the recomn1.ended daily intake am I?
e In one day, I eat the fallowing:
100 g of tomato 20 g of peas 50 g of pineapple
50 g of cauliflower 50 g of carrot 100 g of potato
How many milligrams of vitamin C have I consumed?

12 Probability
ASSIGNMENT 12C umulative revision
1 Change these Roman numerals into modern (Hindu-Arabic) numerals. 1:01
a XIX b CCLX c MCMIII d MMXIV
2 Simplify the fallowing. 1:068
a 15 - (4 + 8) b 120 - 80 + 4 c 5 x 9 - (20 - 18 + 2)

3 Rewrite as a basic numeral. 3:02,

3 2 1 4 3
a (7 x 10 ) + (2 x 10 ) + (9 x10 ) + 4 x 1 b (5 x 10 ) + (7 x 10 ) 3:07
c J64 d m e ,J3x3x3x3x5x5

4 Simplify: 4:07,
a Sa+ 3b - a b 6 x 4m - 4 c 20x + 5 + 3x X 7 4:09
d 7(2x + 2) - 4 e S(x + 7) - 5x f 3(2y + 9) + 6(5y - 4)

5 Find the value of each pronumeral. 5:04,

a b c 5:05,
8:02,
70° x 0
8:04

d e f
100°
Yo
_ _ _____,,,,,,,::--7-
ao
6 a -36 + 6 b -17-8 7 :05,
c 8 - (3 - 18) d 3-1-1-1-1 7:06

7 a l_2.
4 3 b 3% + s! 9:04-
9:07
c x4 l_!_.1
d 8 . 4

8 The ratio of boys to girls in the playground was 3 :2 and there were 60 children 9:1 o
altogether.
a What fraction of the children were girls?
b How many girls were in the playground?

9 a What is 10% of $850? 11 :04,

b Whatis3%of6·8m? 11:05
c What percentage is 24 g of 600 g?

10 What is the probability of choosing a red King at random from a standard pack 12:03
of cards?

Australian Signpost Mathematics New South Wales 7