PROBABILITY

Probability
 The likelihood or chance of an event occurring
 If an event is IMPOSSIBLE its probability is ZERO
 If an event is CERTAIN its probability is ONE
 So all probabilities lie between 0 and 1
 Probabilities can be represented as a fraction, decimal of percentages

Probabilty
0 0.5 1
Impossibe Unlikely Equally Likely Likely Certain
Experimental Probability
 Relative Frequency is an estimate of probability

 Approaches theoretic probability as the number of trials increases

Example
Toss a coin 20 times an observe the relative frequency of getting tails.
Theoretical Probability
 Key Terms:
Each EXPERIMENT has a given number of specific OUTCOMES which
together make up the SAMPLE SPACE(S). The probability of an EVENT (A)
occurring must be such that A is subset of S

 Experiment throwing coin die

 # possible Outcomes, n(S) 2 6
 Sample Space, S H,T 1,2,3,4,5,6
 Event A (A subset S) getting H getting even #
Theoretical Probability
 Probability
The probability of an event A occurring is calculated as:

A B
Examples
1. A fair die is rolled find the probability of getting:
a) a “6” 1
6 4 2
=
b) a factor of 6 6
6
3
=1
c) a factor of 60 6 5
d) a number less than 6 6
0
a number greater than 6 =0
e) 6

2. One letter is selected from “excellent”. Find the probability that it is:
3 1
a) an “e” =
9 3
b) a consonant 6 2
=
9 3

3. One card is selected

4 1
from a deck of cards find the probability of selecting:
=
a) a Queen 52 13
26 1
b) a red card 53
=
22 1
=
c) a red queen 52 26
Theoretical Probability
 Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability of A given B is the probability that A occurs given that event B has
occurred. This basically changes the sample space to B

A B
Examples
1. A fair die is rolled find the probability of getting:
a) a “6” given that it is an even number 1
3
a factor of 6, given that it is a factor of 8
¿
b)

2. One letter is selected from “excellent”. Find the probability that it is:
2 1
a) a “l” given it is a consonant 6
=
3
b) an “e”, given the letter is in excel {e,e,e} from {e,x,c,e,l,l,e}

3. One card is selected from a deck of cards find the probability of selecting:
a) a Queen , given it is a face card 4 1
=
2 121 3
b) a red card given it is a queen 4
=
2
c) a queen, given it is red card 4
=
2
26 13
Theoretical Probability
 Expectation
The expectation of an event A is the number of times the event A is expected to
occur within n number of trials,

Examples
1. A coin is tossed 30 times. How many time would you expect to get tails?

2. The probability that Mr Bennett wears a blue shirt on a given day is 15%. Find the
expected number of days in September that he will wear a blue shirt?
15 %×30=4.5≈ 5 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
Sample Space
Sample Space can be represented as:
 List

 Grid/Table

 Two-Way Table

 Venn Diagram

 Tree Diagram
Sample Space
1) LIST:
Bag A: 1 Black , 1 white . Bag B: 1 Black, 1 Red
One marble is selected from each bag.
a) Represent the sample space as a LIST
b) Hence state the probability of choosing the same colours
ANSWER:
Sample Space
2) i)GRID:
Two fair dice are rolled and the numbers noted
a) Represent the sample space on a GRID
b) Hence state the probability of choosing the same numbers
ANSWER:6 Dic e #2

Dic e #1

1 2 3 4 5 6
Sample Space
2) ii)TABLE:
Two fair dice are rolled and the sum of the scores is recorded
a) Represent the sample space in a TABLE
b) Hence state the probability of getting an even sum
ANSWER:Dice 2\Dice 1
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sample Space
3) TWO- WAY TABLE:
A survey of Grade 10 students at a small school returned the following
results:
Category Boys Girls
A student is selected at random, find the
Good at Math 17 probability that: 19 36
a) it is a girlNot good at Math 8 12
b) the student is not good at math 25 31 56
c) it is a boy who is good at Math
d) it is a girl,Pgiven
( 𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙the student
) = is good at Math
31
e) the student is good at Math, given 56 that it is a girl
20 5
P ( 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑@ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h ) = =
56 20
14
17
P ( 𝐵𝑜𝑦 , 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 @ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h )=
56
19
P ( 𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙∨𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑@ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h )=
36
P ( 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 @ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h ∨𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙 )=
Sample Space
4) VENN DIAGRAM:
The Venn diagram below shows sports played by students in a class:

A student is selected at random, find the probability that the student:

P ( 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 )=
17
27
a) plays basket ball P ( 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙∧𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 )=
4
27
b) plays basket ball and tennis 4
( )
P 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙∨𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 =
c) Plays basketball given that the student plays tennis 11
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:
Note: tree diagrams show outcomes and probabilities. The outcome is written at the
end of each branch and the probability is written on each branch.
Represent the following in tree diagrams:
a) Two coins are tossed
b) One marble is randomly selected from Bag A with 2 Black & 3 White marbles ,
then another is selected from Bag B with 5 Black & 2 Red marbles.
c) The state allows each person to try for their pilot license a maximum of 3 times.
The first time Mary goes the probability she passes is 45%, if she goes a second
time the probability increases to 53% and on the third chance it increase to 58%.
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:
a) Answer:
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:
b) Answer:
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:
c) Answer:
Types of Events
 EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Exhaustive if together
they represent the Sample Space. i.e A,B,C,D are exhaustive if:
P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(D) = 1

Eg Fair Dice: P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=

Types of Events
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS: two events are said to be complementary if one of
them MUST occur. A’ , read as “A complement” is the event when A does not
occur. A and A’ () are such that: P(A) + P(A’) = 1 A A’
 State the complementary event for each of the following
EVENT A A’ (COMPLEMENTARY EVENT)
Getting a 6 on a die
Getting at least a 2 on a die
Getting the same result when a coin is tossed twice

 Eg Find the probability of not getting a 4 when a die is tossed

P(4) =
 Eg. Find the probability that a card selected at random form a deck of cards is not a queen.
P(Q’)=
Types of Events
COMPOUND EVENTS:
 EXCLUSIVE EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Exclusive (two events would be
“Mutually Excusive”) if they cannot occur together. i.e they are disjoint sets

A
B

 INDEPENDENT EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Independent if the occurrence of one
DOES NOT affect the other.

 DEPENDENT EVENTS: a set of event are said to be dependent if the occurrence of one
DOES affect the other.
Types of Events
EXCLUSIVE/ INDEPENDENT / DEPENDENT EVENTS
 Which of the following pairs are mutually exclusive events?
Event A Event B
Getting an A* in IGCSE Math Exam Getting an E in IGCSE Math Exam
Leslie getting to school late Leslie getting to school on time
Abi waking up late Abi getting to school on time
Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 1 of a coin
Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 2 of a coin

 Which of the following pairs are dependent/independent events?

Event A Event B
Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 2 of a coin
Alvin studying for his exams Alvin doing well in his exams
Racquel getting an A* in Math Racquel getting an A* in Art
Abi waking up late Abi getting to school on time
Probabilities of Compound Events
When combining events, one event may or may not have an effect on the other, which
may in turn affect related probabilities
Type of Meaning Diagram Calculation
Probability
AND Probability that event A AND event B
Note:
will occur together. For Exclusive Events:
since they cannot occur together then,
Generally,
AND = multiplication A B For Independent: Events:
since A is not affected by the occurrence of B

OR Probability that either event A OR A B

event B (or both) will occur. Note:
For Exclusive Events:
Generally, since such events are disjoint sets,
OR = addition
A B