Probability

Warm Up
Evaluate.

1. 5  4  3  2  1 120
2. 7  6  5  4  3  2  1 5040

3. 4 4. 210

5. 10 6. 70
To make a yogurt parfait, you choose one flavor of yogurt, one
fruit topping, and one nut topping. How many parfait choices are
there?
Yogurt Parfait
(choose 1 of each)
Flavor Fruit Nuts
Plain Peaches Almonds
Vanilla Strawberries Peanuts
Bananas Walnuts
Raspberries
Blueberries
number
number number number
of times of fruits times of nuts equals
of choices
flavors

2  5  3 = 30

There are 30 parfait choices.

A password for a site consists of 4 digits followed by 2 letters.
The letters A and Z are not used, and each digit or letter many be
used more than once. How many unique passwords are possible?

digit digit digit digit letter letter

10  10  10  10  24  24 = 5,760,000

There are 5,760,000 possible passwords.

A “make-your-own-adventure” story lets you choose 6 starting
points, gives 4 plot choices, and then has 5 possible endings. How
many adventures are there?

number number
of number number
 of plot  of = of adventures
starting possible
points choices
endings
6  4  5 = 120

There are 120 adventures.

A password is 4 letters followed by 1 digit. Uppercase letters (A)
and lowercase letters (a) may be used and are considered
different. How many passwords are possible?

Since both upper and lower case letters can be used, there are 52
possible letter choices.
letter letter letter letter number

52  52  52  52  10 = 73,116,160

There are 73,116,160 possible passwords.

Recap: Probability Scale

0 0.5 1

Getting a Going to
Scoring 101%
Heads on the sleep tonight Winning the
on a test
flip of a coin Lottery

An IPS student
Being left-
travelling to
handed
school by van
How to write probabilities

Probability of winning the lottery:

1 in 14,000,000
? ___1___
?
Odds Form 14000000
Fractional Form

0.000000714
? 0.0000714%
?
Decimal Form Percentage Form

Which is best in this case?

Calculating a probability

outcomes matching event

P(event) = total outcomes

Probability of picking a Jack from a pack of cards?

_4_
P(Jack)
? = ?
52
Activity 1 (fill in on your exercise pack)
List out all the possible outcomes given each description, underline or circle the outcomes
that match, and hence work out the probability.
The set of all possible outcomes is known as the sample space.
Event Outcomes Probability
1 Getting one heads and one tails on HH, HT, TH, TT 1/2
the throw of two coins.
2 Getting two tails after two throws. HH, HT, TH, TT 1/4
? ?
3 Getting at least 2 heads after 3 HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, 1/2
throws. ?
THH, THT, TTH, TTT ?
4 Getting exactly 2 heads after 3 HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, 3/8
throws. THH, THT, TTH, TTT ? ?
5 Rolling a prime number and throwing 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H, 6H, 1/4
a head. 1T, 2T, 3T, 4T, 5T,?
6T ?
6 In three throws of a coin, a heads HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, 1/2
never follows a tails. THH, THT, TTH, TTT ? ?
7 For a randomly chosen meal with AD, AE, AF, 4/9
possible starters Avacado, Beans and BD, BE, BF,
Cauliflower, and possible main CD, CE, CF
courses Deer, Escalopes or Fish, ? ?
ending up with neither Avacado nor
Dog.
Puzzle!
Work on in pairs.

Hint: It might be easier to

20? Matching count those which are not

=
symmetrical!

28
? Total outcomes

Hint: Can you use the

‘choose’ function?
Activity 2
Sometimes we can reason how many outcomes there will be without the need to list them.

Event Num matching Num total Probability

outcomes outcomes
1 Drawing a Jack from a pack of cards. 4 52 P(J) = 4/52 = 1/13
2 Drawing a club from a pack of cards. 13 ? 52 ? ?
P(Club) = 13/52 = 1/4
3 Drawing a card which is either a club or is 28 52 P(even or club) = 7/13
an even number. ? ? ?
4
5
Throwing two sixes on a die in a row.
Throwing an even number on a die
1
9
? 36
36
? P(66) = 1/36 ?
P(even-odd) = 1/4
followed by an odd number. ? ? ?
6 Throwing three square numbers on a die in 8 216 P(three square) = 1/27
a row. ? ? ?
7 Seeing exactly two heads in four throws of 6 16 P(two Heads) = 3/8
a coin. ? ? ?
8 Seeing the word ‘BOB’ when arranging two 2 6 P(BOB) = 1/3
plastic Bs and an O on a sign. ? ? ?
N Seeing the word LOLLY when arranging a 6 120 P(LOLLY) = 1/20
letter O, Y and three letter Ls on a sign. ? ? ?
NN After shuffling a pack of cards, the cards in 4
4! x (13!) 52! Roughly 1 in 2 billion billion
each suit are all together. ? ? billion. ?
Recap: Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the ‘number of ways of arranging something’.
We could consider how many things could do in each ‘slot’, then multiply these numbers
together.

1 How many 5 letter English words could there theoretically be?

B I L B O

26 x 26 x 26 x 26? x 26 = 265
2 How many 5 letter English words with distinct letters could there be?

S M A U G

26 x 25 x 24 x 23? x 22 = 7893600

3 How many ways of arranging the letters in SHELF?

E L F H S

5 x 4 x 3 x 2? x 1 = 5! (“5 factorial”)
Activity 3
For this activity, it may be helpful to have four cards, numbered 1 to 4.

Event Num matching Num total Probability

outcomes outcomes
1 One number randomly picked being P(Even) = 2/4
even. ?2 ?4 ?
2 The four numbers, when randomly
placed in a line, reads 1-2-3-4 ?1 4! = 24
? P(1, 2, 3, 4) = 1/24
?
3 Two numbers, when placed in a line,
contain a two and a three. ?2 12
? P(2 with 3) = 1/6
?
4 Three numbers, when placed in a line,
form a descending sequence.
?3 24
? P(Descending) = 1/8
?
5 Two numbers, when placed in a line,
give a sum of 5. ?4 12
? P(Sum of 5) = 1/3
?
6 When you pick a number out a bag, look 1 16 P(1, 1) = 1/16
at the value then put it back, then pick a ? ? ?
number again, both numbers are 1.
N When you pick a number from a bag, 4! = 24 44 = 256 P(run) = 3/32
put the number back, and do this 4
times in total, the values of your ? ? ?
numbers form a ‘run’ of 1 to 4 in any
order (e.g. 1234, 4231, ...).
2D Sample Spaces
We previously saw that a sample space was the set of all possible outcomes.
Sometimes it’s more convenient to present the outcomes in a table.

Q: If I throw a fair coin and fair die, what is the probability I see a prime number or a tails?

1D Sample Space 2D Sample Space

Ensure you label your ‘axis’.
{ H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3,
Die
T4, T5, T6 }
1 2 3 4 5 6

Coin
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
P(prime or T) = 9/12 ?
P(prime or T) = 9/12
2D Sample Spaces

Suppose we roll two ‘fair’ dice, and add up the scores from the two dice.
What’s the probability that:
a) My total is 10? 3/36 =? 1/12
b) My total is at least 10? 6/36 =?1/6
c) My total is at most 9? 5/6 ?
Second Dice
Three of the
+ 1 2 3 4 5 6
outcomes match
1 2 ? 3 ? 4 ? 5 ? 6 ? 7 ? the event “total is
10”. And there’s 36
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
First Dice

outcomes in total.
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 ?8 9 10 “At most 9” is like
saying “NOT at
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
least 10”. So we
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 can subtract the
probability from 1.
Exercise 4
1 After throwing 2 fair coins. 3 After throwing 2 fair die and multiplying.
2nd Coin x 1 2 32nd Coin
4 5 6
H T
1st Coin

1st Coin
1 2 3 4 5 6
H ?HH HT 2 2 4 6 8 10 12
P(product 6) = 1/9?

1st Die
P(product <= 6) = 7/18?
T TH TT 3 3 6 ?
9 12 15 18 ?
P(product >= 7) = 11/18

P(HH) = 1/4 ?
4 4 8 12 16 20 24 P(product odd) = 1/4 ?
5 5 10 15 20 25 30
P(H and T) = 1/2 ?
6 6 12 18 24 30 36
2 After throwing 2 fair die and adding.
4 After spinning two spinners, one A, B, C
2nd Die and one A, B, C, D.
nd
+ 1 2 32 4Coin 5 6 2nd Spinner
1st Coin

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 A B C D
P(total prime) = 15/36 ?

1st Spinner
2 3 4 5
?
6 7 8 P(total < 4) = 1/12 ? A AA
?AB AC AD
1st Die

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 P( total odd) = 1/2 ? B BA BB BC BD

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C CA CB CC CD
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 P(both vowels) = 1/12 ?
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 P(≥ vowel) = 1/2 ?
P(B and C) = 1/6 ?
Events and Mutually Exclusive Events
Examples of events:
Throwing a 6, throwing an odd number, tossing a heads, a randomly chosen person
having a height above 1.5m.

An event in probability is a description of one?or more outcomes.

(More formally, it is any subset of the sample space)

We often represent an event using a single capital letter, e.g. P(A) = 2/3.

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then they can’t happen
? at the same time,
and:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

?

You may recall, when we covered Set Theory, that A ∪ B meant “you are in set A, or
in set B”. Since events are just sets of outcomes, we can formally write P(A or B) as
P(A ∪ B).
Events not happening
A’ means that A does not happen.

P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
?

Quick practice:

1 A and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.2
?
P(A or B) = 0.5,
P(A’) = 0.7,
?
P(B’) = 0.8
?
2 C and D are mutually exclusive events and P(C’) = 0.6, P(D) = 0.1
?
P(C or D) = 0.5

3 E, F and G are mutually exclusive events and P(E or F) = 0.6 and P(F or G) = 0.7
and P(E or F or G) = 1
?
P(F) = 0.3
?
P(E) = 0.3
?
P(G) = 0.4
Test your understanding

A bag consists of red, blue and An unfair spinner is spun. The

green balls. The probability of probability of getting A, B, C and D
picking a red ball is 1/3 and a blue is indicated in the table below.
ball 1/4. What is the probability of Determine x.
picking a green ball?
A B C D
0.1 x 0.4 x
?
P(G) = 5/12

x = 0.25
?
Exercise 5 (on your sheet)
1 In the following questions, all events are 2 All Tiffin students are either good
mutually exclusive. at maths, English or music, but
P(A) = 0.6, P(C) = 0.2 not at more than one subject. The
a
?
P(A’) = 0.4, P(C’) = 0.8 ? probability that a student is good
P(A or C) = 0.8 ? at maths is 1/5. The probability
they are are good at English is
b P(A) = 0.1, P(B’) = 0.8, P(C’) = 0.7 1/3. What is the probability that
?
P(A or B or C) = 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.6 they are good at music?

c P(A or B) = 0.3, P(B or C) = 0.9,

P(A or B or C) = 1
?
P(Music) = 7/15

?
P(A) = 0.1 3 The probability that Alice passes
?
P(B) = 0.2 an exam is 0.3. The probability
?
P(C) = 0.7 that Bob passes the same exam s
0.4. The probability that either
d P(A or B or C or D) = 1. P(A or B or C) = 0.6 pass is 0.65. Are the two events
and P(B or C or D) = 0.6 and P(B or D) = mutually exclusive? Give a reason.
0.45
? ?
P(A) = 0.4, P(B)= 0.05 No, because 0.3 + 0.4 = 0.7 is not
?
? ?
P(C) = 0.15, P(D) = 0.4 0.65.
Exercise 5 (on your sheet)
I am going on holiday to one destination this
4 The following tables indicate the probabilities 5 year, either France, Spain or America. I’m 3 times
for spinning different sides, A, B, C and D, of as likely to go to France as I am to Spain but half
an unfair spinner. Work out x in each case. as likely to go to America than Spain. What is the
probability that I don’t go to Spain?
A B C D
Probabilities of could be expressed as:
0.1 0.3 x x
France Spain America
?
x = 0.3 3x x ? 0.5x

A B C D So 4.5x = 1, so x = 2/9
So P(not Spain) = 7/9
0.5 2x 0.2 x
N P(A or B or C) = 1.
?
x = 0.1 P(A or B) = 4x – 0.1 and P(B or C) = 4x.
Determine expressions for P(A), P(B) and P(C),
A B C D and hence determine the range of values for x.
x 2x 3x 4x
P(C) = 1 – P(A or B) = 1 – (4x – 0.1) = 1.1 – 4x
?
x = 0.1 P(A) = 1 – P(B or C) = 1 – 4x
P(B) = (4x – 0.1) + (4x) – 1 = 8x – 1.1
A B
x 4x + 0.25 ?
Since probabilities must be between 0 and 1,
from P(A), x must be between 0 and 0.25. From
P(B), x must be between 0.1375 and 0.2625.
?
x = 0.15
From P(C), x must be between 0.025 and 0.275.
Combining these together, we find that
0.1375 ≤ x ≤ 0.25
How can we find the probability of an event?
1. We might just know! 2. We can do an experiment and count
outcomes

We could throw the dice 100 times for

For a fair die, we know example, and count how many times we
that the probability of see each outcome.
1
each outcome is , by
6
definition of it being a Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
fair die.
Count 27 13 10 30 15 5
27 13 10 30 15 5
R.F.
100 100 100 ?100 100 100

This is known as a: This is known as an:

Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability
When we know the underlying Also known as the relative frequency , it is
probability of an ?
event. a probability based on observing counts.
?
𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑝 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
Check your understanding

Question 1: If we flipped a (not necessarily fair) coin 10 times

6
and saw 6 Heads, then is the true probability of getting a
10
Head?
No. It might for example be a fair coin: If we throw a fair coin 10 times we
wouldn’t necessarily see 5 heads. In fact we could have seen 6 heads! So the
? only provides a “sensible guess” for
relative frequency/experimental probability
the true probability of Heads, based on what we’ve observed.

Question 2: What can we do to make the experimental

probability be as close as possible to the true (theoretical)
probability of Heads?
Flip the coin lots of times. I we threw a coin just twice for example and saw 0
Heads, it’s hard to know how unfair our coin is. But if we threw it say 1000 times
and saw 200 heads, then we’d have a much ? more accurate probability.
The law of large events states that as the number of trials becomes large, the
experimental probability becomes closer to the true probability.
Estimating counts and probabilities

A spinner has the letters A, B

and C on it. I spin the spinner 𝟏𝟐
50 times, and see A 12 times. Answer: = ?𝟎. 𝟐𝟒
𝟓𝟎
What is the experimental
probability for P(A)?

The probability of getting a 6

Answer: on an unfair die is 0.3. I throw
𝟐𝟎𝟎 × 𝟎. 𝟑 = the die 200 times. How many
𝟔𝟎 times? sixes might you expect to get?
Estimating counts and probabilities

The Royal Mint (who makes British coins)

claims that the probability of throwing a
Heads is 0.4.

Athi throws the coin 200 times and sees 83

Heads. He claims that the manufacturer is
wrong.
Do you agree? Why?

No. In 200 throws, we’d expect to see 200 ×

0.4 = 80 heads. 83 is close
? to 80, so it’s likely the
manufacturer is correct.
Test Your Understanding

A The table below shows the probabilities for spinning an A, B and C on a spinner. If I
spin the spinner 150 times, estimate the number of Cs I will see.

Outcome A B C
Probability 0.12 0.34

P(C) = 1 – 0.12 – 0.34 = 0.54

Estimate Cs seen?= 0.54 x 150 = 81

B I spin another spinner 120 times and see the

following counts:

Outcome A B C
Count 30 45 45

What is the relative frequency of B?

45/120 = 0.375
?
Exercise 6 (on your sheet)
Dr Laurie throws a fair die 600 times,
1 An unfair die is rolled 80 times and the following 3
and sees 90 ones.
counts are observed.

a) Determine the relative frequency of each a) Calculate the relative frequency

outcome. of throwing a 1.
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 90 / 600 = 0.15 ?
b) Explain how Laurie can make the
Count 20 10 8 4 10 28
R.F. 0.25 0.125 0.1 ? 0.05 0.125 0.35 relative frequency closer to a
b) Dr Bob claims that the theoretical probability sixth.
of rolling a 3 is 0.095. Is Dr Bob correct? ?
Throw the die more times.
He is probably correct, as the experimental
The table below shows the
?
probability/relative frequency is close to the
theoretical probability.
4
probabilities of winning different
prizes in the gameshow “I’m a
Tiffinian, Get Me Outta Here!”. 160
2 An unfair coin has a probability of heads 0.68. I Tiffin students appear on the show.
throw the coin 75 times. How many tails do I
expect to see? Estimate how many cuddly toys will
P(T) = 1 – 0.68 = 0.32 be won.
0.32 x 75 = 24 ? Prize Cockroach Cuddly Toy Maths Skip Next
Smoothie Textbook Landmark
Prob 0.37 x 0.18 2x

x = (1 – 0.37 – 0.18)/3 = 0.15

?
0.15 x 160 = 24 cuddly toys
Exercise 6 (on your sheet)
A six-sided unfair die is thrown n times, I throw a fair coin some number of times and the
5 7 relative frequency of Heads is 0.45. I throw the
and the relative frequencies of each
outcome are 0.12, 0.2, 0.36, 0.08, 0.08 and coin a few more times and the relative frequency
is now equal to the theoretical probability. What
0.16 respectively. What is the minimum is the minimum number of times the coin was
value of n? thrown?

All the relative frequencies are multiples If relative frequency is 0.45 = 9/20, the
of 0.04 = 1/25. Thus the die was known minimum number of times the coin was thrown
? is 20. If we threw two heads after this, the new
some multiple of 25 times, the minimum
being 25.
?
relative frequency would be 11/22 = 0.5 (i.e. the
theoretical probability)
Thus the minimum number of throws is 22.
6 A spin a spinner with sectors A, B and C
200 times. I see twice as many Bs as As I throw an unfair coin n times and the relative
8
and 40 more Cs than As. Calculate the frequency of Heads is 0.35. I throw the coin 10
relative frequency of spinning a C. more times, all of which are Heads (just by luck),
and the relative frequency rises to 0.48.
Counts are x, 2x and x + 40 Determine n.
[Hint: Make the number of heads after the first throws
Thus x + 2x + x + 40 = 200
?
4x + 40 = 200. Solving, x = 40.
say , then form some equations]

Relative frequency = 80 / 200 = 0.4. k/n = 0.35, which we can write as k = 0.35n.
(k+10)/(n+10) = 0.48, which we can rewrite as
?
k = 0.48n – 5.2 (i.e. by making k the subject)
Thus 0.35n = 0.48n – 5.2. Solving, n = 40.