STA112

Probability I

Number of Credit: 3

Semester: Rain (2023/2024)

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CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES OF PROBABILITY
Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. It is the chance
that something will happen. Probability is the basis of inferential statistics because predictions are
based on probability, and hypotheses are tested by using probability. Probability is used to quantify
the likelihood, or chance, that an outcome of a random experiment will occur. “The chance of rain
today is 30%’’ is a statement that quantifies our feeling about the possibility of rain. The likelihood of
an outcome is quantified by assigning a number from the interval [0, 1] to the outcome (or a percentage
from 0 to 100%). Higher numbers indicate that the outcome is more likely than lower numbers. A 0
indicates an outcome will not occur. A probability of 1 indicates an outcome will occur with certainty.

Generally, the three approaches to probability include classical approach, empirical approach and
axiomatic approach respectively. These approaches are usually referred to as the basic interpretations
of probability.

An experiment is any process whose outcome is subject to uncertainty. Although the word experiment
generally suggests a planned or carefully controlled laboratory testing situation, we use it here in a
much wider sense. Thus experiments that may be of interest include tossing a coin once or several
times, selecting a card or cards from a deck, obtaining blood types from a group of individuals, or
measuring the compressive strengths of different steel beams.

1.1 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

This is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely. It uses sample
spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. You do not actually have to
perform the experiment to determine that probability. It is so named because it was the first type of
probability studied formally by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries. Let E be any event in
the sample space S. The probability of any event E is defined as:
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸
P(E) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑆

𝑛(𝐸)
P(E) =
𝑛(𝑆)

Where n(E) is the number of favourable outcomes, and n(S) is the number of possible outcomes.

DEFINITIONS
1.1.1 Outcome
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

1.1.2 Trial
A trial means flipping a coin once, rolling one die once, or the like. When a coin is tossed, there are
two possible outcomes: head or tail. (Note: We exclude the possibility of a coin landing on its edge.)
In the roll of a single die, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

1.1.3 Sample Point

Each element or outcome in the sample space of a probability experiment is called a sample point.

1.1.4 Sample Space

The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space of the experiment.
The sample space is denoted as S. A sample space is often defined based on the objectives of the

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analysis. A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or countable infinite set of outcomes. A
sample space is continuous if it contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of real numbers.

1.1.5 Equally Likely Events

Equally likely events are events that have equal probability of occurrence.

1.1.6 Rounding Rule for Probabilities

Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to two or three decimal places. When
the probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is permissible to round the decimal to the
first nonzero digit after the point. For example, 0.0000587 would be 0.00006.

1.1.7 Tree diagram

A tree diagram is a device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and also from
the outcome point. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example 1
Consider throwing a die once. What is the probability of the event of a prime number?
Solution

Let E denote event of a prime number, and S denote the sample space

𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, 𝑛(𝑆) = 6

𝐸 = {2,3,5}; 𝑛(𝐸) = 3

𝑛(𝐸) 3
P(E) = = = 0.5
𝑛(𝑆) 6

Example 2
Find the probability of getting a black 10 when drawing a card from a deck.
Solution
Let E denote event of a black 10 from a deck of playing cards, and S denote the Sample space. Hence
𝑆 = {𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠}
𝑛(𝑆) = 52
𝐸 = {𝑡ℎ𝑒 10 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 10 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏𝑠}
𝑛(𝐸) = 2
𝑃(𝑎 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 10) = 𝑃(𝐸)
2
𝑃(𝐸) =
52
1
𝑃(𝐸) =
26

Example 3
If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls.

Solution
Let B and G denote boys and girls respectively. You can obtain sample space S using a tree diagram
as shown below

3
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
Sample
Space B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG

𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺}

𝑛(𝑆) = 8
Let E = Event of two girls
𝐸 = {𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵}
𝑛(𝐸) = 3
3
𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠) =
8

Exercise 1-1
1. Consider an experiment in which each of three vehicles taking a particular freeway exit turns
left (L) or right (R) at the end of the exit ramp. Find the probability of
(i) the event that exactly one of the three vehicles turns right
(ii) the event that at most one of the vehicles turns right
(iii) the event that all three vehicles turn in the same direction

Hints: The eight possible outcomes that comprise the sample space are LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR, LRR,
RLR, RRL, and RRR. Thus there are eight simple events, among which are.
Some compound events include
A = { RLL, LRL, LLR } = the event that exactly one of the three vehicles turns right
B = { LLL, RLL, LRL, LLR } = the event that at most one of the vehicles turns right
C = { LLL, RRR} = the event that all three vehicles turn in the same direction

2. If an octagonal fair die is rolled once, determine

a) the sample space
b) probability of obtaining an even number
c) xprobability of obtaining a multiple of 3
d) probability of obtaining a prime number and
e) state the appropriate probability approach

1.2 Empirical or Relative Frequency Approach

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Here, the probability of an event occurring is given by the fraction of the time similar events happened
in the past. The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical probability
assumes that certain outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is rolled), while
empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes. In empirical
probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000 times, observe the various frequencies, and use
these frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome. Therefore,
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
Example 4-1
A survey of a class of 30 KWASU graduates showed that 4 graduated with First Class Honours, 10
graduated with Second Class Honours and 16 graduated with Third Class Honours. What is the
probability that a graduate selected from this group graduated with First Class Honours.
Solution
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 1𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑠
𝑃{1𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠} =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑑
4
𝑃{1𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠} =
30
2
𝑃{1𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠} =
15
Example 5-1
Suppose that a researcher for the American Automobile Association (AAA) asked 50 people who plan
to travel over the Thanks giving holiday how they will get to their destination. The results can be
categorized in a frequency distribution as shown.
Method Frequency

Drive 41

Fly 6

Train or Bus 3

Total 50

Probabilities can be computed for various categories for the three categories are:
41
𝑃(𝐷𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔) =
50
3
𝑃(𝐹𝑙𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔) =
25
3
𝑃(𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑢𝑠) =
50

Example 6-1
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Source: The American Red Cross
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Solution
Blood Type Frequency

O 21

A 22

B 5

AB 2

Total 50

21
a. 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝑂 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) =
50
22 5 27
b. 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐵𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 50 + 50 = 50
5 2 7
c. 𝑃(𝑁𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝑂 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 50 + 50 = 50
2
d. 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 50
e. 𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑)
2
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 1 −
50
24
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) =
25
Alternatively,
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = 𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒𝑂 + 𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴 + 𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑)
21 22 5
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) = + +
50 50 50
24
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑) =
25

1.3 Axiomatic Approach

This is an approach based on the four basic laws of probability. It is such that probabilities problems
are solved using understanding of nature of probability as measure of uncertainty, in deciding
correctness of answers to such problems.

1.3.1 The Axioms of Probability

Let E denote an event in sample space S such that 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸. Then 𝑃(𝐸) is
said to be a true probability function if and only if the following axioms are satisfied
1. 𝟎 ≤ 𝒑(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏
Interpretation: The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal)
between and including 0 and 1. The simple implication of this is that probabilities can neither
be negative nor greater than 1
2. 𝑷(∅) = 𝟎
Interpretation: If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample
space), its probability is 0.
3. 𝑷(𝑬) = 𝑷𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝟏
Interpretation: If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
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4. 𝑷(𝑺) = 𝟏
Interpretation: The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

1.4 Events: An event is defined as any subset of the outcome set S in a probability experiment. It is a
subset of the sample space of a random experiment.

1.4.1 Combination of Events

In probability theory, events are usually combined using the basic set operations; union, intersection
and complements. Interpretations of these basic set operations are summarized in what follows:
• The union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in either
of the two events. We denote the union as 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵.
• The intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained in
both of the two events. We denote the intersection as 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 .
• The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in the sample space that
are not in the event. We denote the component of the event A as 𝐴′ .

It should be noted that diagrams are often used to portray relationships between sets, and these
diagrams are also used to describe relationships between events. We can use Venn diagrams to
represent a sample space and events in a sample space.

Illustrations
(a) (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′

1.4.2 Types of Events

1. Independent Events
Two events 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 are said to be independent if the occurrence of 𝐸1 does not prevent that
of 𝐸2 from happening. This simply means that both events can occur simultaneously.
Mathematically, 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 independent if and only if
𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 ) × 𝑃𝑟 (𝐸2 )
2. Dependent Events
Events 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 are said to be dependent if the occurrence of 𝐸1 prevents that of 𝐸2 from
happening or if they depend on each other. This implies that occurrence of one depends on the
other.
Mathematically, 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 are dependent if an only if
𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 ) × 𝑃𝑟 (𝐸2 /𝐸1 )
3. Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if they are disjoint. 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 , for instance
are said to be mutually exclusive if 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅

Example 7-1
Consider rolling a die once with the following events,
𝐸1 = (𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠)
7
= {2,4,6},
𝐸2 = (𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠)
= {1,3,5},
𝐸3 = (𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 1)
= {4}

Events 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 are mutually exclusive because 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅ which implies that in a throw
of a single die, we cannot have event of an even and an odd numbers together. But events
𝐸1 and 𝐸3 are independent because 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸3 = 4. This means that an event can contain an
outcome which is both even and a perfect square greater than1.
2.0 Interpretation of Probability
Based on the axioms of probability presented in previous section, the following interpretation can be
given to probability values
1. When the probability of an event is close to 0, its occurrence is highly unlikely.
2. When the probability of an event is near 0.5, there is about a 50-50 chance that the event will
occur; and
3. when the probability of an event is close to 1, the event is highly likely to occur.
Example 2-1
Consider an experiment of tossing a coin 3 times. What is the probability of
1. obtaining 4 heads
2. obtaining at most 4 heads
3. obtaining at least 1 tail
Solution
Since a single coin has two possible outcomes of H and T, the sample space for tossing 3 coins together
can be obtained using tree diagram,
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
𝑛(𝑆) = 8

3 rd
coin Outcomes
2nd H; HHH
coin
H
1st T; HHT
coin H; HTH
H
T
T; HTT
H; THH
H
T; THT
T H; TTH

T
T; TTT

1. Let 𝐸1 denote event of obtaining 4 heads. Since S does not contain HHHH, 𝐸1 = ∅ and 𝑃{∅} =
0
8
2. Let 𝐸2 denote event of at most 4 heads. Hence
𝐸2 = {𝐻 ≤ 4}
𝐸2 = {∅, 3𝐻, 2𝐻 𝑜𝑟 1𝐻 }
𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(∅) + 𝑃(3𝐻) + 𝑃(2𝐻) + 𝑃(1𝐻)
0 3 3 1
𝑃(𝐸2 ) = + + +
8 8 8 8
7
𝑃(𝐸2 ) =
8
3. Let 𝐸3 denote event of at least 1 tail. Hence
𝐸3 = {𝑇 ≥ 1}
𝐸3 = {1𝑇, 2𝑇, 𝑜𝑟 3𝑇}
𝑃(𝐸3 ) = 𝑃(1𝑇) + 𝑃(2𝑇) + 𝑃(3𝑇)
3 3 1
𝑃(𝐸3 ) = + +
8 8 8
7
𝑃(𝐸3 ) =
8
Alternatively,
𝑃(𝐸3 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑇)
1
𝑃(𝐸3 ) = 1 −
8
7
𝑃(𝐸3 ) =
8

2.1 Interpretation of “OR” and “AND” in Probability Problems

In probability theory, the word “or” simply means addition. It is synonymous to words such as “either”,
“neither” and “union operation in set theory”. On the other hand, the word “and” simply means product
(multiplication) and it is synonymous to words like “both”, “together” and “intersection operation in
set theory”. Hence
𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 𝑜𝑟𝐸2 ) and
𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃𝑟 (𝐸1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸2 )