Chapter # 4.

Section 4.1: Sample Space and Probability.

Basic Concepts
A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.

An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

Each repetition of the experiment we call a trial.

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example # 1: Give a sample space for each of the following experiments:

Experiment Sample space

Answering a true/false question
Roll a die ( 6 sides)
Toss a coin one time
The grade received in a course 1st way:
(Give two ways in which the space might 2nd way:
be forms)
Toss a coin two times

A tree diagram is a device consisting of a line segments emanating from a starting point
and also from the outcome points. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.

Example # 2: Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use a tree diagram.

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Example # 3: A box contains a $1 bill, a $5 bill, and a $10 bill. A bill is selected at
random, and it is not replaced; then a second bill is selected at random. Draw a tree
diagram and determine the sample space.

Example 4: Three balls numbered 1 through 3 are placed in a box. A ball is selected at
random, and its number is noted; then it is replaced. A second ball is selected at random,
and its number is noted. Draw a tree diagram and determine the sample space.

An event is subset of a sample space.

An event with one outcome is called a simple event.

An event with more than one outcome is called a compound event.

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Example # 5: The experiment is to draw one number from the numbers 1 through 10.
List all outcomes for the following events:

Event Outcomes Number Probability

of
outcomes
Draw an even number
Draw an odd number
Draw a prime number
Draw a multiple of 4
Draw a multiple of 7
Draw a number that is greater than 12
Draw a natural number that is less than
11

Example # 6: (Use the result of Example 2). A family has three children. List all
outcomes for the following events:

Event Outcomes Number Probability

of
outcomes
Exactly 2 girls
At least 2 girls
Less than 2 boys
More than 2 boys

Classical probability
Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to
occur.

Formula for Classical Probability

The probability of any event E is

Number of outcomes in E
Total number of outcomes in the sample space

n( E )
This probability is denoted by P( E ) =
n( S )

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Probability Rules:

1. The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between

and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0  P ( E )  1 .
2. If an event E cannot occur (the event contains no members in the sample space),
its probability is 0.
3. If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
4. The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Rounding Rule for Probability

Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to two or three decimal

places. When probability of an event is an extremely small decimal, it is permissible to
round to the first nonzero digit after the point.

Example # 7: If a die is rolled one time, find these probabilities:

a) Getting a number a 2

b) Getting an odd number

c) Getting a number greater than 6

d) Getting a 2 or an odd number

e) Getting a number less than 7

f) Getting an even number greater than 3

g) Getting a prime or odd number

h) Getting a prime number less than 7

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Example # 8: A couple has three children. Find each probability:

a) All boys

b) All boys or all girls

c) Exactly 2 girls or exactly 2 boys

d) At least one child of each gender

e) All girls or exactly one boy

f) Exactly one child of each gender

Empirical Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood (probability)
of outcomes.

Formula for Empirical Probability

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is

Frequency for the class f

P(E) = =
Total frequencies in the distribution n
n( E )
This probability is denoted by P( E ) =
n( S )

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Example # 9: The owner of The Smoke House founds that 800 people bought
hamburgers as follows:

Kind of Burger Frequency Relative frequency ( Probability)

Miniburger 140
Burger 345
Big Burger 315
Total

Find the probability of a customer purchasing each kind of hamburger.

Law of Large Numbers

As an experiment is repeated more and more times, the relative frequency obtained
approaches the actual probability.

Example # 10: The Law of Large Numbers has been tested for the coin tossing problem.
The Comte de Buffon ( 1701 – 1788) , Karl Pearson ( 1857 – 1936), and John Kerrich, a
prisoner of war during World War II , each tossed a coin many times. The results of their
efforts were as follows:

Tosses Heads Relative Frequency

Buffon 4,040 2,048 0.5069
Pearson 12,000 6,019 0.5016
Pearson 24,000 12,012 0.5005
Kerrich 10,000 5,067 0.5067

Subjective Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.

Example # 11:

a) A physician might say that, on the basis of his diagnosis, there is a 30% chance
the patient will need an operation.
b) A seismologist might say there is an 80% chance that an earthquake will occur in
certain area.

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Complimentary Event
The compliment of an event E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted E (read “ E bar”).

Rule for Complimentary Events

( )
P E = 1− P ( E ) ( )
or P ( E ) = 1 − P E ( )
or P ( E ) + P E = 1

Example # 12: The probability that Mary can work a problem is 70%. Find the
probability that Mary cannot work the problem.

Example # 13: In 2004, 57.2% of all enrolled college students were females.
Choose one enrolled student at random. What is the probability that the student was a
male?

A Visual Model of Probability

Probabilities can be represented pictorially by Venn diagrams.
The area inside the circle represent the probability of event E, that is P(E). The area
inside the rectangle represents the probability of all the events in the sample space P(S)
= 1.

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Section 4.2: Addition Rules for Probability.
Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time (they
have no outcomes in common).

Example # 14: Determine whether these events are mutually exclusive.

a) Select any course: It is a calculus course and it is an English course.

b) Select any course: It is a calculus course and it is a mathematics course.

Addition Rule 1

When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability that A and B will occur
is P ( A or B ) = P ( A) +P ( B )

Example # 15: In a fish tank, there are 24 goldfish, 2 angel fish, and 5 guppies. If a fish
is selected at random, find the probability that it is a goldfish or an angel fish.

Addition Rule 2

When two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, the probability that A and B will
occur is P( A or B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A and B)

Example # 16: In a particular school with 400 students, 110 play football, 80 play
basketball, and 30 play both. What is the probability that randomly selected student plays
football or basketball?

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Example # 17: In a statistics class there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors; 6 of the seniors
are females, and 12 of the juniors are males. If the student is selected at random, find the
probability of selecting the following:

a) A junior or a female

b) A senior or a female

c) A junior or a senior

d) A female

e) A junior female

f) A junior female or a senior male

g) A male or a junior female

Juniors Seniors Total

Male
Female
Total

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Example # 18: The frequency distribution shown here illustrates the number of
medical tests conducted on 30 randomly selected emergency patients.
Number of tests performed Number of patients
0 12
1 8
2 2
3 3
4 or more 5
Total

If the patient is selected at random, find these probabilities:

a) The patient has had exactly 2 tests done.

b) The patient has had at least 2 tests done.

c) The patient has had at most 3 tests done.

d) The patient has had 3 or fewer tests done.

e) The patient has had 1 or 2 tests done.

f) The patient has had at least 1 test done.

g) The patient has had at most 1 test done.

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Section 4.3: The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional Probability.
Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of
the second event in such way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be
dependent events.

Example # 19: Determine whether these events are dependent or independent:

a) Tossing a coin and drawing a card from a deck.

b) Drawing a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then drawing a second ball.

c) Drawing a ball from an urn, replacing it, and then drawing a second ball.

Multiplication Rule 1

When two events A and B are independent, the probability of both occurring is
P( A and B) = P( A)  P( B)

Example # 20: A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head
on the coin and a 4 on the die.

Example # 21: An urn contains 5 red balls and 3 white balls. A ball is selected and its
color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the
probability of each of these.

a) Selecting two red balls.

b) Selecting two white balls.

c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 white ball.

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The conditional probability of event B in relationship to an event A is the probability
that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.

Multiplication Rule 2

When two events A and B are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
P ( A and B ) = P ( A)  P( B | A)

Example # 22: An urn contains 5 red balls and 3 white balls. A ball is selected without
replacement. Then a second ball is selected. Find the probability of each of these.

a) Selecting two red balls.

b) Selecting two white balls.

c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 white ball.

Formula for Conditional Probability

The probability that the second event B occurs given that the first event A has occurred
can be found by the following formula:

P( A and B)
P( B | A) =
P( A)

Example # 23: At a large university, the probability that a student takes calculus and is
on the dean’s list is 0.042. The probability that the student is on the dean’s list is 0.21.
Find the probability that the student is taking calculus, given that he or she is on the
dean’s list.

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Example # 24: A Gift Basket Store had the following premade gift baskets containing
the following combinations in stock.

Cookies Mugs Candy Total

Coffee 20 13 10
Tea 12 10 12
Total

Choose 1 basket at random. Find the probability that it contains:

a)Coffee or candy

b)Tea given that it contains mugs

c)Mugs given that it contains tea

d)Tea and cookies

e)Coffee and mugs or tea and candy

Example # 25: Urn 1 contains 5 red balls and 3 black balls. Urn 2 contains 3 red balls
and 1 black ball. Urn 3 contains 4 red balls and 2 black balls. If an urn is selected at
random and a ball is drawn, find the probability it will be red.

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Example # 26: In 2006, 86% of U.S. households had cable TV. Choose 3 households at
random. Find the probability that

a)None of the 3 households had cable TV

b)All 3 households had cable TV

c)At least 1 out of 3 households had cable TV

Example # 27: A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

Example # 28: A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

Example # 29: A medication is 75% effective against a bacterial infection. Find the
probability that if 12 people take the medication, at least 1 person’s infection will not
improved.

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Section 4.4: Counting Rules
The Fundamental Counting Rule

In a sequence of n events in which the first one has k1 possibilities and the second event
has k2 possibilities and the third event has k2 possibilities and so forth , the total number
k  k  k  k n
of possibilities of the sequence will be 1 2 3

Example # 30: A particular cell phone company offers 4 models of phones, each in 6
different color and each available with any one of 5 calling plans. How many
combinations are possible?

Example # 31: a) How many 5-digits zip codes are possible if digits can be repeated?

b) How many 5-digits zip codes are possible if digits cannot be repeated?

Permutations

A permutation is an arrangement of n objects in a specific order.

Permutation Rule

The number of permutations of r objects selecting from n objects is denoted by n Pr and

is given by the formula
n!
n Pr =
(n − r )!

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Example #32: Ten students each submit one essay for competition. In how many ways
can the first, second, and third prizes be awarded?

Combinations

A selection of distinct objects without regard to order is called combination.

Combination Rule

The number of combinations of r objects selecting from n objects is denoted by n Cr and

is given by the formula
n!
n Cr =
(n − r )!r !

Example # 33: A student has 7 books on his deck. In how many different ways can he
select a set of 3?

Example # 34: a) In how many ways a committee of 4 be selected from a group of 10

people?

b) In how many ways can a slate of officers consisting of a president, vice-president, and
secretary be selected from a group of 10 people?

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