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17 views15 pages

Final

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praneshsekar07
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NAME : PRANESH U S

CLASS : CSBS

SUBJECT : PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

TOPIC : INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY


What is Probability?

•Definition:
Probability of a given event is a chance of
occurrence of event.

•Examples:
Include simple examples like tossing a coin
or rolling a die to illustrate the concept.
Historical Background
Origins:
Briefly discuss the origins of probability in the
context of gambling and games of chance.
Use:
Science and Engineering,Finance and Economics,Medicine
and Epidemiology,Weather Forecasting,Artificial Intelligence
and Machine Learning,Insurance
Basic Terminology:

Experiment:
An action or process that leads to one or
more outcomes (e.g., rolling a die).

Sample Space:
The set of all possible outcomes (e.g., {1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6} for a die).

Event: A subset of the sample space (e.g., rolling


an even number).
Types of Probability:

•Classical theory

•Frequency theory

•Axiomatic theory
CLASSICAL THEORY:
Classical probability is based on the idea of
equally likely outcomes. If an experiment has n
equally likely outcomes and m of them are
favorable to an event A, the probability P(A) is
given by:

𝑃(𝐴)=n(a)/n(s).
Frequency theory:
Definition of Probability: In
frequency theory, the probability of an event is
defined as the limit of its relative frequency in
a large number of trials. For an event A, the
probability P(A) is given by:
𝑃(𝐴)=lim𝑛→∞(m/n)
Axiomatic theory:
Axiomatic theory in probability provides a
formal mathematical foundation for probability,
establishing it through a set of axioms or
principles.
1.P(A)≥0
2. P(S)=1
3. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
The Addition Theorem in probability helps calculate the
probability of the union of two events. Here’s a breakdown:

Addition Theorem for Two Events:


[ P(A ∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)]
Where:
P(A)is the probability of event A P(B)is the probability of
event B P(A∩B)is the probability of both events A and B
happening.
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM:

For more than two events, the multiplication theorem


can be generalized. For events A 1 ,A 2 ,…,A n :

For independent events:P(A 1 ∩A 2 ∩…∩A n )=P(A 1


)×P(A 2 )×…×P(A n )

For dependent events:P(A 1 ∩A 2 ∩…∩A n )=P(A 1


)×P(A 2 ∣A 1 )×P(A 3 ∣A 1 ∩A 2 )×…×P(A n ∣A 1 ∩A 2
∩…∩A n−1 )
Conditional Probability:
Definition: The probability of an event given that
another event has occurred.

Formula:
P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)/P(B)

Example: Calculate the probability of drawing an


ace given a red card was drawn.
Independence and Dependence:

Independent Events: The occurrence of one event does not


affect the probability of the other (e.g., rolling two dice).

Dependent Events: The occurrence of one event affects the


probability of the other (e.g., drawing two cards without
replacement).
Mutually Exclusive Events:

Definition:
Events that cannot occur at the same time.

Examples:
Discuss examples like drawing a king or a
queen from a deck of cards.

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events:


Events that can occur simultaneously.
Real-Life Applications:

Medical Studies:
Probability in drug efficacy and medical trials.
Financial Markets:
Risk assessment and prediction in stock trading.
Weather Forecasting:
Calculating the probability of weather events.

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