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Probability

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16 views8 pages

Probability

Uploaded by

anataliaamberwhelan25
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability

Introduction:
Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals
with numerical explanations of the chances of
something happening or the accuracy of a
statement. In general, the probability of an event
is a number between 0 and 1, with 0 signifying
impossibility and 1 indicating certainty. The
greater the probability of something happening,
the more likely it will happen.

The word probability comes from the Latin word


probabilitas, which can imply “probity,” a measure
of a witness’s authority in a court proceeding in
Europe that is commonly linked to the aristocracy.
In some ways, this differs significantly from the
present definition of probability, which is a
measurement of the weight of empirical evidence
derived through inductive approach and statistical
inference.

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Probability Theory:

Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that


deals with the interpretation of random events and
the likelihood of these events occurring. Probability
theory starts with basic concepts such as random
experiments, sample spaces, events, and the
probability of events.

A random experiment is any process or action that


results in one of several possible outcomes, like
tossing a coin or rolling a die. The sample space is
the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment,
and an event is a specific outcome or a set of
outcomes.

Terms in Probability:
 Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes in a
probability experiment. For instance, in a coin
toss, it’s “head” and “tail”.
 Sample Point: One of the possible results in an
experiment. For example, in rolling a fair six-
sided dice, sample points are 1 to 6.
 Experiment: A process or trial with uncertain
results. Examples include coin tossing, card
selection, or rolling a die.

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 Event : A subset of the sample space
representing certain outcomes. Example: getting
“1” when rolling a die.
 Favorable Outcome: An outcome that produces
the desired or expected consequence.

Probability of Events:
The ratio of the number of favourable outcomes to
the total number of outcomes of an event is known
as a probability in Maths. The number of
favourable outcomes can be expressed as x in an
experiment with the ‘n’ number of outcomes.

Types of Probability:
In terms of finding the probability of an event
occurring, there can be different perspectives or
types of probabilities based on the nature of the
outcome or the method followed. They are as
follows:
 Classical Probability
 Experimental Probability
 Subjective Probability
 Axiomatic Probability

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1)Classical Probability:
Using classical probability, known as “priority” or
“theoretical probability,” an experiment with B
equally likely outcomes results in an event X with
exactly A of them, meaning the probability of X is:
A / B. In other words, when a fair dice is rolled, six
possibilities are equally likely to occur. This means
that each number on the die has a 1/6 chance of
coming up.

The formula for Classical probability is –

P(A) = f / N is the mathematical form of the


formula.

P(A) stands for “probability of event A,”

“f” denotes the frequency or how many times the


event could occur.

The letter N represents the number of times the


event could occur.

2) Experimental Probability:
This is based on observations made during an
experiment. Divide the number of possible
outcomes by the number of trials to calculate the
experimental probability.
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For example, if a coin is tossed ten times and the
head is recorded six times then, the experimental
probability for heads is 6/10 or 3/5. The results of
the probability calculations determine these
probabilities. In scientific experiments, the
probability is a function of the number of trials
performed compared with the number of
outcomes. The theoretical probability may differ
from the actual value of probability based on
experimental probability results.

The formula to calculate the experimental


probability is:

P(E) = Number of times an event occurs/Total


number of times the experiment is conducted

3) Subjective Probability:
Individuals’ subjective probabilities are based on
their beliefs about an event occurring. For
example, the probability of a football team winning
a match depends more on the fan’s beliefs and
feelings than on formal calculations.

Subjective probability is based on opinions rather


than calculations. They are mostly based only on
past experiences.

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For example, You’re taking your pet to the vet
today, and based on past experience you’re sure
the fees will exceed Rs. 500.
4) Axiomatic Probability:

As part of axiomatic probability, we apply a set of


rules or axioms to all types of events by
Kolmogorov. Based on the applications of these
axioms, one can quantify the likelihood of any
event occurring or not occurring, as follows:

Probability is the least possible at zero, and when it


is at one, the probability is the highest
Probability equals one for a certain event
Only one of the events can occur in the union of
events, while any two mutually exclusive events
cannot co-occur.

What is Conditional Probability?

A measure of the chance of an event occurring


given that the other event (by presumption,
assumption, statement, or evidence) has already
happened is known as conditional probability.

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Given two events A and B, conditional probability
means the possibility of event B occurrence if
event A has already occurred. Given that event A
has happened, the conditional probability of event
B occurring is:

P(B/A) = P(A ∩ B)/P(A).

Examples of Probability in Real life:

Weather Forecast – You utilise probability almost


every day to organise your day around the
weather. Meteorologists can’t predict the weather
accurately; therefore, they rely on tools and
instruments to anticipate rain, snow, or hail.
Sports Authority – Coaches and athletes use
probability to determine the optimal game and
competition strategy. A sports organisation, too,
considers the likelihood of weather and other
considerations while planning an event.
Insurance – When examining insurance policies
and practises to ensure which programs are best
for you and your family and what deductible levels
you require, probability plays a significant part.
Games– You use probability when you play a
board, card, or computer game that incorporates
luck or chance.

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In order to receive the cards you want or the
secret weaponry you need in a game, you must
calculate the odds. What chance you’re willing to
accept will be determined by the possibility of
receiving those cards or tokens.

Conclusion:

Probability is the degree to which a specific event


is likely to occur
Probability is always expressed as a fraction
between 0 and 1
The event can be viewed as a subset of the sample
space
When you throw a coin, you get heads or tails, and
when you throw dice, you get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
The exact results of a random experiment cannot
be predicted; only some probable outcomes can be
predicted.

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